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Last update - 22:53 17/10/2007

Leaving Annapolis unscathed

By Uzi Benziman

Eli Yishai proposed to Condoleezza Rice that she redirect the Annapolis summit to a discussion on how to improve the economy of the Palestinian Authority. Avigdor Lieberman threatened Rice that if the United States puts pressure on Ehud Olmert, his government will collapse. Ehud Barak made it clear to her that Israel's security needs require that the Israel Defense Forces and Shin Bet security service continue to have freedom of action in the West Bank. Roni Bar-On reiterated the views of his colleagues - that the controversial core issues should not be brought up during the conference.

Even if Olmert's tone is different in his meetings with the secretary of state, and even if Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni softens her position, the image Rice is getting is that of a recalcitrant government that is not eager to avail itself of the international summit next month to achieve peace with the Palestinians. Instead, the impression is that this government merely aspires to emerge from the summit unscathed; in other words, not to damage its relations with the United States.

There is something uncouth about the way Rice's current visit is being conducted. The Israeli position is not being presented in a consolidated fashion by the officials authorized to do so: the prime minister and the foreign minister. Instead, the secretary of state is collecting the views of the ministers to complete the missing pieces on the puzzle laid before her.

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During this visit, Israel is emerging as a disorderly country with a leadership whose direction is unclear; a country with a collection of politicians who are in disagreement over the issue that will determine its fate. Rice is the one who decided on this schedule, and the prime minister agreed; presumably he assumed that a first-hand exposure by Rice to his political difficulties would make it easier for him in his dealings with the U.S. administration.

In retrospect, the picture that emerges from the meetings Rice had is one of division in the Israeli leadership, which is similar to the instability of the Palestinian leadership. The visiting secretary of state may rightly doubt whether Olmert's leadership abilities, and his ability to deliver the diplomatic goods, are any better than those of Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas.

The emerging government position is different from the message of the last Knesset election. In March 2006, Kadima and Labor presented their constituencies with an attitude on the diplomatic front that challenged the Likud outlook and that of the parties on the right. Kadima under Ariel Sharon was behind the disengagement from the Gaza Strip, and Olmert's Kadima spoke of giving up most of the territory in the West Bank. Labor under Amir Peretz backed a platform similar to that of Meretz on the peace issue.

These two parties came to the Knesset with 49 MKs, substantially larger than all other factions in the plenum. They have a moral and political mandate to stick to the line on whose basis they sought the backing of the voter - to lead the state toward relinquishing the territories and bring an end to the cancerous conflict with the Palestinians.

In practice, both parties are more concerned with staying in power. Olmert's dovish tone is being drowned out by the background noise created by the other ministers in his party, and the (initial) peace outlook of Peretz was replaced by the gloomy assessments of Barak on the future of ties with the Palestinians. Kadima and Labor, which positioned themselves on the center-left 18 months ago, express views in October 2007 whose meaning is similar to the kind of results that Likud is seeking: to perpetuate Israel's hold on the West Bank.

This is the message that Rice is hearing from her hosts in Jerusalem this week: This government will collapse if the Annapolis conference attempts to alter in a practical manner the existing situation.

Indeed, the circumstances have changed since the last election: The results of the withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and the Second Lebanon War have changed the public's attitude, and led the politicians to reevaluate the situation in the country and its relations with its neighbors. Nonetheless, the ministers must ask themselves whether remaining in the swamp of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is preferable to an attempt to dry it up.

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