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del.icio.us Digg It!  new Last update - 22:46 15/10/2007 ANALYSIS: Swap is at most a mutual gesture of goodwill By Yossi Melman, Haaretz Correspondent This isn't much of a prisoner swap. At most, it's a mutual gesture. In Israel, there's hope of attaining two objectives. Firstly, that the swap serve as a confidence-building step vis-a-vis Hezbollah. In addition, officials in Jerusalem are eager for the families of Lebanese prisoners held in Israel to further ratchet up the pressure on Hezbollah to make progress towards completing a prisoner deal in the future. Nabil Kauk, a Hezbollah strongman responsible for administering southern Lebanon who was reportedly an Israeli target for capture or assassination during the Second Lebanon War, appeared on television for an interview recently. In the segment, he was seen in the company of the relatives of Lebanese prisoners incarcerated in Israel, telling them that the Shi'ite militia is doing everything in its power to bring their sons back home. Advertisement Kauk is not privy to the details of the ongoing negotiations for a prisoner swap. The one person who keeps the talks close to his chest and handles the contacts nearly on his own is the secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah. Kauk, however, can now claim that Hezbollah is following through on its promise it made to the families. In addition, the timing of the deal, coming as it does close to the Eid al-Fitr holiday and the end of the Ramadan fast, can only enhance the deal's credibility as a goodwill gesture. Even a deal of this scale with Hezbollah was difficult to consummate. A few months ago, the militia informed Israel that it held in its possession the body of an Israeli national, however refused to provide any more details unless Israel agreed to the release of Lebanese prisoners and the return of the bodies of Hezbollah gunmen. Israel refused, and Hezbollah gradually began providing bits of information about the body of an Israeli who had drowned in the sea. Israel viewed these development as an opportunity to exploit the cracks in Hezbollah's negotiating front. Jerusalem dispatched the former deputy head of the Shin Bet security service, Ofer Dekel, to handle the negotiations, which were being mediated by a senior German intelligence official acting on behalf of the United Nations. As both sides gave the green light to the deal, the central question remains whether the swap will serve as the goodwill gesture that paves the way, as Israel hopes, for the truly significant swap whereby Israel would receive information on the condition of the two IDF soldiers who were abducted by Hezbollah, Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser. Israel, naturally, seeks to return both soldiers home. Officials in Jerusalem also hope to obtain information on missing IAF navigator Ron Arad. Sources say that Israel would receive information as part of Monday's deal, though they refused to detail the quality of the information. In addition, a Christian television station in Lebanon is reporting that Monday's swap is indeed connected to the Arad issue. Israeli officials acknowledge that any deal involving details on the whereabouts of Ron Arad would bear a huge price tag. Jerusalem has no doubt that Hezbollah, which is known for its intransigent negotiating tactics and for its ability to play on the sensitivies of the families of the Israeli soldiers missing in action, while using the media to communicate its message to the Israeli public, will do its utmost to extract the highest possible price that they can manage. Consequently, Monday's gesture should not be viewed as a foreshadowing of deals to come. One would do well to consider that Israel has on many occasions in the past released Lebanese prisoners as part of a goodwill gesture in the hope that it would bring both sides closer to clinching "the big swap." In a number of instances during the 1990s, Israel released Lebanese prisoners held at the Al-Hiyam jail which was then administered by the South Lebanon Army. Israel continued with a similar policy into this decade. Jerusalem's objective was to release prisoners and return dead bodies in the hope of obtaining information on Ron Arad and, later, on the three soldiers who were ambushed and killed by Hezbollah gunmen on Mount Dov in 2000, as well as Elhanan Tannenbaum, held in captivity by Hezbollah for more than three years. In August 2003, Israel returned the bodies of two Hezbollah gunmen in exchange for Hezbollah agreeing to allow the German intermediary at the time, Ernst Uhrlau, to meet with Tannenbaum. This was Uhrlau's first meeting of the kind. Following the meeting, the public was fed baseless rumors of Tannenbaum's seriously deteriorating health and false reports that his teeth were uprooted, faulty information which was designed to pressure the government to expedite the process. Thus the doubts remain as to whether the gestures that Israel makes towards Hezbollah will bring the two sides closer to a breakthrough. However, given the very nature of negotiations with an organization such as Hezbollah, Israel has no alternative but to continue to agree to swaps of this type in the hope that the process ultimately bears fruit. Otherwise, Israel will be accused of failing to turn over every stone in its efforts to win the release of - or obtain relevant information about - soldiers in captivity. Related articles: Israel, Hezbollah conduct first swap since 2006 war; report: Deal included information on Ron Arad Israel denies it believes troops captured by Hezbollah are dead Germany denies assassins' early release was part of deal with Iran Germany to set free Iranian assassin despite Israel's plea Bookmark to del.icio.us Part of Jerusalem? PM Olmert questions whether Arab neighborhoods should be defined as part of the capital. Who is a Jew? Israel's draft constitution states that 'every Jew is entitled to immigrate to Israel.'   1.   Good assessment 21:39  |  Chris Linthwaite 15/10/07   2.   Swap should have been on equal terms 21:45  |  Mike 15/10/07   3.   What kind of a deal is this? Civilian for fighter?! 21:50  |  McQueen 15/10/07   4.   #2 Mike 22:00  |  Chris Linthwaite 15/10/07   5.   #4 Chris 22:21  |  Mike 15/10/07   6.   Wasn`t it just a few days ago.... 23:10  |  akiva (zionist) 15/10/07   7.   Doubts remain, but hopes too 23:11  |  Outsider 15/10/07   8.   #4 Chris 00:34  |  Yosef 16/10/07   9.   A gesture to Hezbollah 02:42  |  Nechama 16/10/07   10.   Bah! Disgusting. 04:27  |  The Northern Wind 16/10/07   11.   I havbe to be honest 04:52  |  Mo 16/10/07

Today Online Editorial: Hail Rice for paving the way for dividing the land Responses: 2 Daniel Ben Simon: Once-moderate Shas moves to extreme right Send response Polish rightist party slammed for anti-Semitic campaign ad Responses: 13 Likud urges Shas, Lieberman to quit gov't over PM's J'lem hints Responses: 9 Haaretz.com TV: Despite lobby's power, U.S. Jews are losing their bond to Israel Responses: 90 Rosner's Domain * Rice "understand risks to announcing a meeting" (WTR) * Guest: How to stop Hamas from spoiling Annapolis? * McCain is the pro-peace process GOP candidate * Poll: Is Rice's effort brave, pathetic, realistic, dangerous? More Headlines 10:24 Report: Swap gives Israel papers with Arad's writing 09:22 Two Palestinians, including one militant, killed in IDF Nablus raid 06:35 ANALYSIS: Israel, Hezbollah need no trust building measures 06:53 Likud urges Shas, Lieberman to quit gov't over PM's 'intention' 07:01 Cartoon spat prompts Shas to quit Knesset religious lobby 06:43 Abductees' families cautiously optimistic over Hezbollah deal 03:56 Balad activist murdered on doorstep of his business in Lod 05:32 Justice Minister orders drafting of bill limiting length of criminal probes 06:15 Medical students prefer not to intern in Israel's periphery 23:17 Polish right-wing party accused of running anti-Semitic campaign ad Previous Editions Select Day 15 oct 14 oct 12 oct 11 oct 10 oct 09 oct 08 oct 07 oct 05 oct 04 oct 03 oct 02 oct

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