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Preparing for the military option
By Ephraim Sneh

Israel cannot reconcile with the notion that a regime, ideologically commited to its destruction, will hold nuclear weapons. One of the central lessons of the Holocaust is that we should not ignore the mix of hatred of Jews and enormous military power.

Military action is not the preferred option but the final choice. First the option of serious economic sanctions must be exhausted, the kind of sanctions that can undermine the Iranian regime, or force it to relinquish its efforts to develop nuclear arms. The most effective sanction may be preventing the sale of refined petroleum products to Iran, particularly gasoline for cars. Currently, half the gasoline consumed in Iran is imported, mostly from India, the United Arab Emirates and the Netherlands. This is a very powerful tool. The problem is that states, even those who have given up on diplomatic niceties, and those who have learned the hard way about Iran's skill at maneuvering and buying time, are in no rush to impose real sanctions.

Israel must assume the worst - that real sanctions will not be imposed on Iran. The United States has two other options: actively encouraging the toppling of the regime of the Ayatollahs by the Iranian people or independent military action. As far as the first option is concerned, the U.S. is interested but has forgotten how to do it; the latter option it can carry out, but it does not wish to do so for political reasons.
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In the event no one stops Iran on its way to the bomb, a military option for Israel must still "be kept on the table." This, of course, while remaining aware of all the reservations and shortcomings relevant to such an option, and by viewing it as "the final option" in which only a nuclear Iran is worse. In the absence of such an option there is little chance that other countries will take action. Even if they attempt to pressure Iran economically and politically, it will have no reason to give in if it knows that nothing bad will happen to it. No one will treat Israel with the necessary seriousness if it makes do only with complaining about the Iranian threat, without showing determination to do something about it independently.

There are two basic conditions that must be met in order for an Israeli operation against Iran to be possible: effective protection of the home front against missiles and rockets, thousands of which are already aimed at Israeli cities, some capable of carrying warheads with chemical payloads; and the technological means, and long-range operational capabilities. The overall cost for defending against chemical warfare and missiles, of upgrading the Arrow anti-ballistic missile system and developing beyond the horizon capabilities is estimated at NIS 5 billion. The cost can be spread over a five-year period. The production and acquisition must be expedited to take place over a two- to three-year period. This is not an impossibility for a country ranked high in the world in terms of GNP - and certainly when the issue at hand is existential.

The aforementioned projects have already been approved in principle by the prime minister and the defense minister; some have even met with security cabinet approval. Some of them have been alloted only part of the promised budget, and that was delayed. The Brodet Committee's conclusions, recently accepted by the government, forbid alloting special funding to unusual defense-related matters. As such, it is doubtful whether the necessary budget will now be made available for the urgent implementation of these programs. The practical implication can be that Israel will not have the option of dealing with Iranian nukes. The time for taking decisions against the Iranian nuclear threat will probably be during the tenure of the next government. In no way does the current government have the right of stripping the future governments of the ability to act, and by extension, the ability to make decisions.

The practical negation, or significant delay, of the Israeli option for action may have existential implications for the State of Israel.
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  1.   Israel attack Iran? Great Idea 10:30  |  Natallie Durson 10/10/07
  2.   FORGET ABOUT IT 10:36  |  indrajaya 10/10/07
  3.   A TOTAL ILLUSION 10:49  |  indrajaya 10/10/07
  4.   even if you´re right Natallie 11:04  |  Peter 10/10/07
  5.   Pre-emption is not an option, it`s the trigger for WWIII 11:16  |  Ivar 10/10/07
  6.   Credits to Clickfool for the "gunslinger" paradigm 11:27  |  Ivar 10/10/07
  7.   #2 Indra. 11:38  |  Billy Joe 10/10/07
  8.   iran 11:43  |  s 10/10/07
  9.   The threat to our safety are our own action-thirsty generals 11:57  |  www.kibush.co.il 10/10/07
  10.   Israel the land of dreamers 11:59  |  Chris Linthwaite 10/10/07
  11.   natallie.... youre smart.... 12:04  |  ravi 10/10/07
  12.   peter... the alternative 12:11  |  ravi 10/10/07
  13.   Attack may be last resort 12:30  |  Goij Mike 10/10/07
  14.   Israel attack Iran? Great Idea! 12:43  |  David Samson 10/10/07
  15.   An erroneous perception of reality 13:04  |  indrajaya 10/10/07
  16.   to # 1 Natallie 13:05  |  JJ 10/10/07
  17.   Natallie: sorry about giving ravi 13:10  |  Star of David 10/10/07
  18.   Mr. Sneh does not see the consequences for Israel 13:13  |  Mark B. 10/10/07
  19.   to #12 Ravi - naive 13:33  |  Peter 10/10/07
  20.   When it comes to israel Iran should expect the worst! 13:38  |  opinion 10/10/07
  21.   Iranian Republican Guard is now a TERRORIST organization 14:01  |  The Equalizer 10/10/07
  22.   HELP THE IRANIAN STUDENTS 14:14  |  L.Etfly 10/10/07
  23.   Iran should have been bombed in 1983 14:16  |  SystemF 10/10/07
  24.   Right on target 14:19  |  Brod 10/10/07
  25.   20, Opinion, is right, the world has come to expect Israeli worst 14:21  |  Ivar 10/10/07
  26.   Natallie Durson`s fantasy 14:34  |  Lee Marks 10/10/07
  27.   Natalies WMD 14:36  |  Joe Momma 10/10/07
  28.   #1 Nuttily 14:41  |  Ari ben Yisrael 10/10/07
  29.   Iran is savage,primitive and aggressive 14:45  |  Kapule David Mabuta 10/10/07
  30.   LET ISRAEL MAKE THE MISTAKE OF ITS LIFE 14:53  |  Octavius 10/10/07
  31.   Iran will answer the attack! 15:00  |  Roxana from IRAN 10/10/07
  32.   No 29....How long using people!!! 15:09  |  Sohel saheen 10/10/07
  33.   Labor`s military wing speaking 15:09  |  Beate 10/10/07
  34.   Star of David 15:23  |  dan 10/10/07
  35.   Iran is not Nazi Germany, neither does the Chamberlain 15:33  |  Ivar 10/10/07
  36.   Israel will use american pawn 15:46  |  mehmet 10/10/07
  37.   Hate To Agree With AntiSemite Durson But.. 15:55  |  dyinglikeflies 10/10/07
  38.   `18 Mark B. 16:08  |  Axel 10/10/07
  39.   SOHEL IS JUST IDIOT 16:11  |  Rodrigo 10/10/07
  40.   To Indrajaya 16:27  |  Boris S. 10/10/07
  41.   Response To Axel from Germany 16:31  |  Mark B. 10/10/07
  42.   If Israel were no longer to exist... 16:32  |  mb 10/10/07
  43.   For Ivar on the "gunslinger" analogy # 6 16:36  |  Clickfool 10/10/07
  44.   JUST A HABIT, BABY 16:43  |  indrajaya 10/10/07
  45.   Responce to MArk B. 16:54  |  Axel 10/10/07
  46.   Axel, you are in denial 17:04  |  Mark B. 10/10/07
  47.   Iran and Europe 17:06  |  Pedro 10/10/07
  48.   Preparing for Military Option 17:08  |  Gary 10/10/07
  49.   INDRAJAYA , BABY 17:15  |  Asian Observer 10/10/07
  50.   Mark B., keep believing, if your soul needs it. 17:15  |  Axel 10/10/07
  51.   The burning Bush-Sneh military axis 17:17  |  Tosefta 10/10/07
  52.   ISRAEL, DON`T FEAR THE PERSIAN KING. ONE TSUNAMI,EARTHQUAKE.... 17:23  |  VOICE TO DURSON))))) 10/10/07
  53.   Keeping Israel in check 17:47  |  POP 10/10/07
  54.   WE PAID FOR THE SECOND TEMPLE 17:50  |  golara hamzeh 10/10/07
  55.   SNEH THE SHMUCK !!! 17:54  |  AARON 10/10/07
  56.   #43 Clickfool 17:59  |  ernie 10/10/07
  57.   For Mark B. in Amsterdam 18:11  |  Jonathan S 10/10/07
  58.   No, Hiyeh Beseder 18:17  |  Tom Tsfoni 10/10/07
  59.   Mehmet - Your blind and senseless hate for USA 18:18  |  David Israel 10/10/07
  60.   ROXANA #31 18:33  |  ZWICKER 10/10/07
  61.   For Ernie, on Shane # 56 18:43  |  Clickfool 10/10/07
  62.   The Iranian bomb is an European bomb #47 18:57  |  Jonathan S 10/10/07
  63.   To Durson, Indrajaya, Linthwaite and Clickfool 1, 2, 10, 43. 19:00  |  Fortuna Benmayor 10/10/07
  64.   #63, Fortuna Benmayor 19:20  |  Silvienne 10/10/07
  65.   #59, Well said, David Israel!! 19:21  |  Silvienne 10/10/07
  66.   BOMB IRAN! 19:24  |  Christoher Phelge 10/10/07
  67.   Asounding number of fools on this board 19:27  |  Stephen 10/10/07
  68.   Say Silvienne 19:40  |  ballistic 10/10/07
  69.   Chris Linthwaite 19:41  |  rich 10/10/07
  70.   Sneh, You Should Have Been Working on This Years Ago 19:42  |  Tod Zuckerman 10/10/07
  71.   Israel must Ally with Iran 19:44  |  Mark Hamil 10/10/07
  72.   #59 David Israel 19:46  |  ballistic 10/10/07
  73.   zionists, beware - Ode to Islam! 19:50  |  a holy poet 10/10/07
  74.   Syria was just a test. Iran is the "real thing." 19:56  |  common sense 10/10/07
  75.   Military Option? 19:59  |  P. J. Casey 10/10/07
  76.   Question for Stephen # 67 20:03  |  Clickfool 10/10/07
  77.   ballistic - USA not perfect but better then most 20:13  |  David Israel 10/10/07
  78.   #63... AMEN... FORTUNA.. TE ADORO!!! 20:26  |  Iguana Pacheca 10/10/07
  79.   Iran is a paper tiger 20:35  |  Jonathan S 10/10/07
  80.   With Israels best military ally the US 20:43  |  Kris 10/10/07
  81.   Clickfool # 76 20:50  |  Stephen 10/10/07
  82.   # 13 US has made out at the very least 2.000 20:52  |  Kris