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Preparing for the military option
By Ephraim Sneh

Israel cannot reconcile with the notion that a regime, ideologically commited to its destruction, will hold nuclear weapons. One of the central lessons of the Holocaust is that we should not ignore the mix of hatred of Jews and enormous military power.

Military action is not the preferred option but the final choice. First the option of serious economic sanctions must be exhausted, the kind of sanctions that can undermine the Iranian regime, or force it to relinquish its efforts to develop nuclear arms. The most effective sanction may be preventing the sale of refined petroleum products to Iran, particularly gasoline for cars. Currently, half the gasoline consumed in Iran is imported, mostly from India, the United Arab Emirates and the Netherlands. This is a very powerful tool. The problem is that states, even those who have given up on diplomatic niceties, and those who have learned the hard way about Iran's skill at maneuvering and buying time, are in no rush to impose real sanctions.

Israel must assume the worst - that real sanctions will not be imposed on Iran. The United States has two other options: actively encouraging the toppling of the regime of the Ayatollahs by the Iranian people or independent military action. As far as the first option is concerned, the U.S. is interested but has forgotten how to do it; the latter option it can carry out, but it does not wish to do so for political reasons.
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In the event no one stops Iran on its way to the bomb, a military option for Israel must still "be kept on the table." This, of course, while remaining aware of all the reservations and shortcomings relevant to such an option, and by viewing it as "the final option" in which only a nuclear Iran is worse. In the absence of such an option there is little chance that other countries will take action. Even if they attempt to pressure Iran economically and politically, it will have no reason to give in if it knows that nothing bad will happen to it. No one will treat Israel with the necessary seriousness if it makes do only with complaining about the Iranian threat, without showing determination to do something about it independently.

There are two basic conditions that must be met in order for an Israeli operation against Iran to be possible: effective protection of the home front against missiles and rockets, thousands of which are already aimed at Israeli cities, some capable of carrying warheads with chemical payloads; and the technological means, and long-range operational capabilities. The overall cost for defending against chemical warfare and missiles, of upgrading the Arrow anti-ballistic missile system and developing beyond the horizon capabilities is estimated at NIS 5 billion. The cost can be spread over a five-year period. The production and acquisition must be expedited to take place over a two- to three-year period. This is not an impossibility for a country ranked high in the world in terms of GNP - and certainly when the issue at hand is existential.

The aforementioned projects have already been approved in principle by the prime minister and the defense minister; some have even met with security cabinet approval. Some of them have been alloted only part of the promised budget, and that was delayed. The Brodet Committee's conclusions, recently accepted by the government, forbid alloting special funding to unusual defense-related matters. As such, it is doubtful whether the necessary budget will now be made available for the urgent implementation of these programs. The practical implication can be that Israel will not have the option of dealing with Iranian nukes. The time for taking decisions against the Iranian nuclear threat will probably be during the tenure of the next government. In no way does the current government have the right of stripping the future governments of the ability to act, and by extension, the ability to make decisions.

The practical negation, or significant delay, of the Israeli option for action may have existential implications for the State of Israel.
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  1.   Israel attack Iran? Great Idea 10:30  |  Natallie Durson 10/10/07
  2.   FORGET ABOUT IT 10:36  |  indrajaya 10/10/07
  3.   A TOTAL ILLUSION 10:49  |  indrajaya 10/10/07
  4.   even if you´re right Natallie 11:04  |  Peter 10/10/07
  5.   Pre-emption is not an option, it`s the trigger for WWIII 11:16  |  Ivar 10/10/07
  6.   Credits to Clickfool for the "gunslinger" paradigm 11:27  |  Ivar 10/10/07
  7.   #2 Indra. 11:38  |  Billy Joe 10/10/07
  8.   iran 11:43  |  s 10/10/07
  9.   The threat to our safety are our own action-thirsty generals 11:57  |  www.kibush.co.il 10/10/07
  10.   Israel the land of dreamers 11:59  |  Chris Linthwaite 10/10/07
  11.   natallie.... youre smart.... 12:04  |  ravi 10/10/07
  12.   peter... the alternative 12:11  |  ravi 10/10/07
  13.   Attack may be last resort 12:30  |  Goij Mike 10/10/07
  14.   Israel attack Iran? Great Idea! 12:43  |  David Samson 10/10/07
  15.   An erroneous perception of reality 13:04  |  indrajaya 10/10/07
  16.   to # 1 Natallie 13:05  |  JJ 10/10/07
  17.   Natallie: sorry about giving ravi 13:10  |  Star of David 10/10/07
  18.   Mr. Sneh does not see the consequences for Israel 13:13  |  Mark B. 10/10/07
  19.   to #12 Ravi - naive 13:33  |  Peter 10/10/07
  20.   When it comes to israel Iran should expect the worst! 13:38  |  opinion 10/10/07
  21.   Iranian Republican Guard is now a TERRORIST organization 14:01  |  The Equalizer 10/10/07
  22.   HELP THE IRANIAN STUDENTS 14:14  |  L.Etfly 10/10/07
  23.   Iran should have been bombed in 1983 14:16  |  SystemF 10/10/07
  24.   Right on target 14:19  |  Brod 10/10/07
  25.   20, Opinion, is right, the world has come to expect Israeli worst 14:21  |  Ivar 10/10/07
  26.   Natallie Durson`s fantasy 14:34  |  Lee Marks 10/10/07
  27.   Natalies WMD 14:36  |  Joe Momma 10/10/07
  28.   #1 Nuttily 14:41  |  Ari ben Yisrael 10/10/07
  29.   Iran is savage,primitive and aggressive 14:45  |  Kapule David Mabuta 10/10/07
  30.   LET ISRAEL MAKE THE MISTAKE OF ITS LIFE 14:53  |  Octavius 10/10/07
  31.   Iran will answer the attack! 15:00  |  Roxana from IRAN 10/10/07
  32.   No 29....How long using people!!! 15:09  |  Sohel saheen 10/10/07
  33.   Labor`s military wing speaking 15:09  |  Beate 10/10/07
  34.   Star of David 15:23  |  dan 10/10/07
  35.   Iran is not Nazi Germany, neither does the Chamberlain 15:33  |  Ivar 10/10/07
  36.   Israel will use american pawn 15:46  |  mehmet 10/10/07
  37.   Hate To Agree With AntiSemite Durson But.. 15:55  |  dyinglikeflies 10/10/07
  38.   `18 Mark B. 16:08  |  Axel 10/10/07
  39.   SOHEL IS JUST IDIOT 16:11  |  Rodrigo 10/10/07
  40.   To Indrajaya 16:27  |  Boris S. 10/10/07
  41.   Response To Axel from Germany 16:31  |  Mark B. 10/10/07
  42.   If Israel were no longer to exist... 16:32  |  mb 10/10/07
  43.   For Ivar on the "gunslinger" analogy # 6 16:36  |  Clickfool 10/10/07
  44.   JUST A HABIT, BABY 16:43  |  indrajaya 10/10/07
  45.   Responce to MArk B. 16:54  |  Axel 10/10/07
  46.   Axel, you are in denial 17:04  |  Mark B. 10/10/07
  47.   Iran and Europe 17:06  |  Pedro 10/10/07
  48.   Preparing for Military Option 17:08  |  Gary 10/10/07
  49.   INDRAJAYA , BABY 17:15  |  Asian Observer 10/10/07
  50.   Mark B., keep believing, if your soul needs it. 17:15  |  Axel 10/10/07
  51.   The burning Bush-Sneh military axis 17:17  |  Tosefta 10/10/07
  52.   ISRAEL, DON`T FEAR THE PERSIAN KING. ONE TSUNAMI,EARTHQUAKE.... 17:23  |  VOICE TO DURSON))))) 10/10/07
  53.   Keeping Israel in check 17:47  |  POP 10/10/07
  54.   WE PAID FOR THE SECOND TEMPLE 17:50  |  golara hamzeh 10/10/07
  55.   SNEH THE SHMUCK !!! 17:54  |  AARON 10/10/07
  56.   #43 Clickfool 17:59  |  ernie 10/10/07
  57.   For Mark B. in Amsterdam 18:11  |  Jonathan S 10/10/07
  58.   No, Hiyeh Beseder 18:17  |  Tom Tsfoni 10/10/07
  59.   Mehmet - Your blind and senseless hate for USA 18:18  |  David Israel 10/10/07
  60.   ROXANA #31 18:33  |  ZWICKER 10/10/07
  61.   For Ernie, on Shane # 56 18:43  |  Clickfool 10/10/07
  62.   The Iranian bomb is an European bomb #47 18:57  |  Jonathan S 10/10/07
  63.   To Durson, Indrajaya, Linthwaite and Clickfool 1, 2, 10, 43. 19:00  |  Fortuna Benmayor 10/10/07
  64.   #63, Fortuna Benmayor 19:20  |  Silvienne 10/10/07
  65.   #59, Well said, David Israel!! 19:21  |  Silvienne 10/10/07
  66.   BOMB IRAN! 19:24  |  Christoher Phelge 10/10/07
  67.   Asounding number of fools on this board 19:27  |  Stephen 10/10/07
  68.   Say Silvienne 19:40  |  ballistic 10/10/07
  69.   Chris Linthwaite 19:41  |  rich 10/10/07
  70.   Sneh, You Should Have Been Working on This Years Ago 19:42  |  Tod Zuckerman 10/10/07
  71.   Israel must Ally with Iran 19:44  |  Mark Hamil 10/10/07
  72.   #59 David Israel 19:46  |  ballistic 10/10/07
  73.   zionists, beware - Ode to Islam! 19:50  |  a holy poet 10/10/07
  74.   Syria was just a test. Iran is the "real thing." 19:56  |  common sense 10/10/07
  75.   Military Option? 19:59  |  P. J. Casey 10/10/07
  76.   Question for Stephen # 67 20:03  |  Clickfool 10/10/07
  77.   ballistic - USA not perfect but better then most 20:13  |  David Israel 10/10/07
  78.   #63... AMEN... FORTUNA.. TE ADORO!!! 20:26  |  Iguana Pacheca 10/10/07
  79.   Iran is a paper tiger 20:35  |  Jonathan S 10/10/07
  80.   With Israels best military ally the US 20:43  |  Kris 10/10/07
  81.   Clickfool # 76 20:50  |  Stephen 10/10/07
  82.   # 13 US has made out at the very least 2.000 20:52  |  Kris 10/10/07
  83.   Ballistic how sad I am to hear about the USA`s colour bar 20:52  |  Jasmine Murphy 10/10/07
  84.   Sneh is right Time- frame? 20:58  |  Shalom Freedman 10/10/07
  85.   Kris # 80 20:59  |  Stephen 10/10/07
  86.   Likely... 21:03  |  Victor 10/10/07
  87.   # 82: No jihad already? Golly! 21:18  |  Stephen 10/10/07
  88.   Mark B. 21:20  |  Sarah 10/10/07
  89.   #77 David Israel; I agree with your post, however, 21:21  |  ballistic 10/10/07
  90.   #83 Jasmine--well, thanks for the post, but 21:26  |  ballistic 10/10/07
  91.   For the hypocrites in Europe 21:30  |  Jonathan S 10/10/07
  92.   golara hamze 21:30  |  Sarah 10/10/07
  93.   For Stephen again # 81 21:30  |  Clickfool 10/10/07
  94.   39 ...You are super idiot 21:35  |  sohel saheen 10/10/07
  95.   #64, Silvienne 21:35  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 10/10/07
  96.   As Mr Sneh said There are thousands of Iranians 21:36  |  Davidson 10/10/07
  97.   #36, mehmet, "american pawn" 21:39  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 10/10/07
  98.   #63, Fortuna Benmayor 21:44  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 10/10/07
  99.   ballestic,why don`t you google black on white crimes,then get 21:56  |  terrornator 10/10/07
  100.   ballestic,if what you say is true,why did they not charge the 22:05  |  terrornator 10/10/07
  101.   Cipora Julianna Kohn #87 22:27  |  David Israel 10/10/07
  102.   To Ivan (#6) ...from history`s pages....... 22:37  |  Philip 10/10/07
  103.   In a few years Iran`s oil will decline, Iran will collapse 22:44  |  Oil Investor 10/10/07
  104.   attack Iran 22:49  |  Constance Blackwell 10/10/07
  105.   Stephen on Clickfool, #81 22:51  |  Marcos 10/10/07
  106.   81 Stephen is so bored only WWIII will perk his day 22:51  |  Ivar 10/10/07
  107.   Thanks, Oil Investor, for justifying Iran`s nuclear program 23:12  |  Ivar 10/10/07
  108.   to S. 23:26  |  Judah N. Wenkel 10/10/07
  109.   "The Law of Unintended Consequences always applies" 23:33  |  Simon 10/10/07
  110.   Ephraim Sneh and the fanatic jihadists 23:48  |  dana 10/10/07
  111.   To # 1 Natalie Durson (Ms.Know-it-all) 23:49  |  Judah N. Wenkel 10/10/07
  112.   To Ravi 00:07  |  Judah N. Wenkel 11/10/07
  113.   to #14 David Samson of Toronto 00:10  |  Judah N. Wenkel 11/10/07
  114.   Fear not, Simon, Iranian oil can buy the technology 00:19  |  Ivar 11/10/07
  115.   Click, Whalid, Natalie, some others... 00:29  |  Omran 11/10/07
  116.   GERMANY 00:29  |  ron 11/10/07
  117.   # 76 Clickfool: answer to your question on consequences 00:49  |  Ed 11/10/07
  118.   Pre emptive Strike 01:13  |  Froike 11/10/07
  119.   TO iVAR - ESTONIA 01:48  |  Ibrahim Mehmet 11/10/07
  120.   #1 01:55  |  Moshe 11/10/07
  121.   Judah N. Wenkel # 109- silly question 01:56  |  ChanahS 11/10/07
  122.   Judah N. Winkel # 109 again 01:58  |  ChanahS 11/10/07
  123.   Clickfool 93-here`s your answer 02:01  |  Stephen 11/10/07
  124.   to Dana in Sunnyvale and likeminded 02:14  |  Judah N. Wenkel 11/10/07
  125.   forgot diplomacy? 02:17  |  joebhed 11/10/07
  126.   #105, Marcos and his admiration for Clickfool 02:27  |  Stephen 11/10/07
  127.   108; Tell us, Dana, what Israel would do 02:30  |  Stephen 11/10/07
  128.   to Golara Hamzeh of Shoosh, Iran 02:33  |  Judah N. Wenkel 11/10/07
  129.   Ephraim, son of Chicken Little 02:35  |  Mark Lincoln 11/10/07
  130.   Natalie will jump for joy if Israel is nuked 02:37  |  Stephen 11/10/07
  131.   For Cacked Fool again: re Stephen 02:39  |  Star of David 11/10/07
  132.   This kind of idiot 02:40  |  Mark Lincoln 11/10/07
  133.   ChanaS # 113 02:40  |  Judah N. Wenkel 11/10/07
  134.   Ivar - like all juveniles 02:44  |  Mark Lincoln 11/10/07
  135.   Marcos from Munich: speaking for myself, 02:44  |  Star of David 11/10/07
  136.   Today in America 02:50  |  Mark Lincoln 11/10/07
  137.   #106 02:52  |  Moshe 11/10/07
  138.   To Kris of Austria 02:52  |  Bob 11/10/07
  139.   It was impossible, in 1938 02:55  |  Mark Lincoln 11/10/07
  140.   Bravo Jonathan S. 02:57  |  Bob 11/10/07
  141.   #108, dana 02:57  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 11/10/07
  142.   #106 02:59  |  Moshe 11/10/07
  143.   Law of unintended consequenses 03:03  |  Neil 11/10/07
  144.   @23, systemF 03:11  |  vladimir 11/10/07
  145.   Wrong Natalie 03:13  |  Sabra 11/10/07
  146.   Natalie standards of idiocy 03:16  |  Sabra 11/10/07
  147.   INdrajayah 2 03:18  |  Sabra 11/10/07
  148.   Indrajayah idiocy 03:21  |  Sabra 11/10/07
  149.   Letfly 03:24  |  Sabra 11/10/07
  150.   @94, sohel saheen, you should go to iran and help execute 03:46  |  v 11/10/07
  151.   Excellent article by Ephraim Sneh 03:50  |  Fortuna Benmayor 11/10/07
  152.   #71 Mark Hamill 03:52  |  ballistic 11/10/07
  153.   To Silvienne # 63 03:54  |  Fortuna Benmayor 11/10/07
  154.   Gracias a ti, hermana Iguana Pacheca # 78 03:58  |  Fortuna Benmayor 11/10/07
  155.   #91 Oh, Jonathan, really! 03:59  |  ballistic 11/10/07
  156.   To Cipora # 98 04:04  |  Fortuna Benmayor 11/10/07
  157.   #99 Terrornator 04:04  |  ballistic 11/10/07
  158.   To Israel and my fellow Jews;lchaim, to life, we will see the 04:07  |  Steve-NYC 11/10/07
  159.   #100 Terrornator 04:10  |  ballistic 11/10/07
  160.   To Sabra # 116, 117, 118 and 119. 04:15  |  Fortuna Benmayor 11/10/07
  161.   # 1 At the end of the day, Fatmah, if Israel is... 04:47  |  Misha 11/10/07
  162.   dana,the one with the sunny disposition from sunnyvale 05:03  |  Yoav Naor 11/10/07
  163.   # 113 ChanaS 05:11  |  Judah N. Wenkel 11/10/07
  164.   Preemption 05:16  |  General Stan 11/10/07
  165.   Iran`s nuke bomb program and US domestic public opinion 05:18  |  Bill 11/10/07
  166.   to Sabra 05:25  |  Judah N. Wenkel 11/10/07
  167.   #119 SABRA Reality check... 06:04  |  PADDY 11/10/07
  168.   #83, Jasmine Murphy 06:33  |  Silvienne 11/10/07
  169.   Hello Ballistic... 06:34  |  Silvienne 11/10/07
  170.   What a bunch of cr.p 06:37  |  Iranian-American 11/10/07
  171.   #95, Cipora Kohn 06:38  |  Silvienne 11/10/07
  172.   #116, Sabra... 06:41  |  Silvienne 11/10/07
  173.   ChanahS & Karl Marx... 06:45  |  Silvienne 11/10/07
  174.   Sabra & The Suez 06:47  |  Silvienne 11/10/07
  175.   Moshe from Rockville, forget it!! 06:49  |  Silvienne 11/10/07
  176.   # 7, BILLY JOE 07:25  |  indrajaya 11/10/07
  177.   # 40, BORIS, S 07:27  |  indrajaya 11/10/07
  178.   # 49, ASIAN OBSERVER 07:32  |  indrajaya 11/10/07
  179.   Silvienne 08:08  |  Jasmine Murphy 11/10/07
  180.   For Stpehen, who "doesn`t know and doesn`t care" # 115 08:32  |  Clickfool 11/10/07
  181.   Star of david and war 08:51  |  Truth 11/10/07
  182.   Mark Lincoln 08:58  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 11/10/07
  183.   Thanks for the chuckle, Star of David # 121 09:07  |  Clickfool 11/10/07
  184.   On indrajaya`s wet dream # 15 09:27  |  Fortuna Benmayor 11/10/07
  185.   To Oil Investor # 103. You`re wrong sir. 09:36  |  Fortuna Benmayor 11/10/07
  186.   155, Pathologic Bill prescribes and predicts WWIII 09:37  |  Ivar 11/10/07
  187.   An ingenuous Moslem 09:40  |  Jasni Zakaria 11/10/07
  188.   Military Option against Iranian Nuke Threat 09:40  |  sachidanand 11/10/07
  189.   ATTACK 10:07  |  Sebastian 11/10/07
  190.   Islamic domination 10:20  |  RNEW 11/10/07
  191.   To Jonathan S. and Sarah 10:39  |  Mark B. 11/10/07
  192.   @132 Bob we have had it with you people 10:48  |  Mark B. 11/10/07
  193.   Bill # 165 No way 16:30  |  American in NY 11/10/07
  194.   Jasmine Murphy 16:31  |  Silvienne 11/10/07
  195.   #192, Mark B. 16:33  |  silvienne 11/10/07
  196.   S 17:23  |  American in NY 11/10/07
  197.   Mark Lincoln # 134- 21:00  |  Stephen 11/10/07
  198.   Clickfool # 180 21:16  |  Stephen 11/10/07
  199.   Mark B 22:00  |  Stephen 11/10/07
  200.   Mark Lincoln 22:05  |  Stephen 11/10/07
  201.   #193, American in NY... 00:05  |  Silvienne 12/10/07
  202.   Terrornator...re: ballistic. 02:08  |  Silvienne 12/10/07
  203.   Ivar #186 11:23  |  Bill 12/10/07
  204.   American in NY #193 Yes way 11:32  |  Bill 12/10/07
  205.   Bill # 204 You are out of touch with reality 02:37  |  American in NY 13/10/07
  206.   #205, American in NY... 04:32  |  Silvienne 13/10/07
  207.   204 and 205 16:50  |  Bill 13/10/07
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