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Last update - 09:53 05/10/2007
From Camp David to Annapolis
By Haaretz Editorial

The renewed talks of final-status arrangement, land exchange, dividing Jerusalem, and the right of return, and the familiar faces of Abu Ala and Saeb Erekat with the documents and maps evoke a sharp sense of deja vu. As though nothing has happened since the failure of the peace process and the eruption of the intifada in the Fall of 2000. As though the political negotiations are being conducted in a parallel universe, cut off from reality.

But this is an illusion: the negotiations in the autumn of 2007 are being held in a very different political and strategic environment from those of the previous round.

First, the parameters for an Israeli-Palestinian final status arrangement - presented by former President Bill Clinton at the end of his term - fixated the framework for the conflict's solution in the international consciousness. Every agreement between Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian Chairman Mahmoud Abbas will be compared to Clinton's plan, to see who conceded and who gained.

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Second, building the separation fence fixated in the consciousness of most Israelis the final border line in the West Bank. Yielding territories to the west of it, on the ridge controling Israel's population centers and water sources, would encounter strong internal resistance. The problem is that the fence, which dissects the West Bank into three enclaves, is far from the Palestinian minimum demands.

Third, the Gaza Strip's status has changed entirely. Now, Olmert and Abbas can decide whatever they wish about Gaza, knowing that it's unenforceable. Hamas will continue to be in charge there, and the Qassams will keep winging their way to Israel.

Fourth, the increased strength of Iran and its allies has changed for the worse the regional balance of power, and pushed the moderate Arab states - lead by Saudi Arabia - to look for tranquilizers for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. For Israel, this is a blessing and a curse. The Arab initiative hardens the Palestinian positions, but also promises normalization and regional integration in exchange.

Fifth, America is no longer as powerful as it was in the Middle East, following its hopeless entanglement in Iraq and President Bush's political decline. It is possible to defy it fearlessly, as Iran's president does. The truth is that American power was always limited vis-a-vis the Palestinian issue.

Sixth and most important, in Arafat's era the question was whether he really wanted an agreement, but there was no doubt that he was capable of carrying it out. The situation with Abbas and Salam Fayad is reversed: they mean well, but their implementation power is limited. Any agreement with them would be theoretical, at least until they "gain more power" and accept security responsibility.

All this indicates that Olmert and Abbas' mission is much harder than that of their predecessors Barak and Arafat.

Only the final, most serious issues remain open. There is no time left to waste on empty rhetoric. The changes in the region and the Palestinian leadership's weakness make it even more difficult to reach a viable agreement. It is clear that the Annapolis meeting will require much more creativity and daring than the previous session at Camp David.
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  1.   No peace with bombs 10:32  |  Jimmy Deng 05/10/07
  2.   Maybe Bush wants the Peace prize and the War prize the same year 10:33  |  Natallie Durson 05/10/07
  3.   No peace without bombs 10:35  |  Jimmy Deng 05/10/07
  4.   BRING HAMAS BACK 10:37  |  indrajaya 05/10/07
  5.   ISRAEL NEED TO SHOW SHE STILL THE BOSS 10:48  |  indrajaya 05/10/07
  6.   Democracy always wins 10:48  |  Tong Renk 05/10/07
  7.   NO! Most important is what people want and do. 10:55  |  S 05/10/07
  8.   Indrajaya #4, excuse me? 11:09  |  Palestinian Prince 05/10/07
  9.   Poss. resp. or edit. letter - Camp David Anna. 11:28  |  H.H.M 05/10/07
  10.   Some very general preliminary thoughts 11:33  |  J.M.Jordan 05/10/07
  11.   is it really ? arafat made sure its dead for 100 years 11:44  |  victor hardman 05/10/07
  12.   But peace under Olmert and Abbas is better than Arafat and Barak 12:05  |  Tamir Palestine 05/10/07
  13.   Jimmy Deng`s #3: I do hope you`re NOT right... 12:15  |  J.M.Jordan 05/10/07
  14.   You have to fight for your rights 12:18  |  Jimm 05/10/07
  15.   You have to fight for your rights 12:23  |  Jimmy Deng 05/10/07
  16.   #3 JIMMY DUNG 12:32  |  Jo Jo 05/10/07
  17.   Same as terror Arafat threats so is Editorial 12:42  |  Joseph E . 05/10/07
  18.   Why there can never be any separate Arab political entity west of 14:16  |  Uzi 05/10/07
  19.   The cyclical behaviour pattern of the Arabs of Western Palestine: 14:17  |  Uzi 05/10/07
  20.   # 2 Bumper Sticker Durson 14:51  |  Tony Anthony 05/10/07
  21.   Little hope... 15:15  |  Tess 05/10/07
  22.   The Arabs must offer what they give in return for what they want. 15:44  |  Uzi 05/10/07
  23.   How can a guy who completed a PhD on Shoah Denial make peace? 16:09  |  Ask a silly question 05/10/07
  24.   Arabs must decide # 22 16:23  |  Abu Yusuf 05/10/07
  25.   #14 fighting for your rights 16:58  |  John 05/10/07
  26.   Haaretz, The Israeli Fixtures 17:32  |  Dutch 05/10/07
  27.   #26 doris sets out her demands but no one is listening 17:48  |  victor hardman 05/10/07
  28.   ANNAPOLIS, LIKE THE BUSH PRESIDENCY, WILL PRODUCE ONLY SMOKE, 1 17:55  |  David Turner 05/10/07
  29.   ANNAPOLIS, LIKE THE BUSH PRESIDENCY, WILL PRODUCE ONLY SMOKE, 2 17:56  |  David Turner 05/10/07
  30.   ANNAPOLIS, LIKE THE BUSH PRESIDENCY, WILL PRODUCE ONLY SMOKE, 3 17:58  |  David Turner 05/10/07
  31.   Mission of sane Jews is to end fraudulent "peace process". 18:04  |  Chaim 05/10/07
  32.   difficult to comprehend 18:16  |  khairi janbek 05/10/07
  33.   Two weaklings and a maniac 18:19  |  Mark Lincoln 05/10/07
  34.   #31 Israel`s Fraudulent settlements 19:09  |  John 05/10/07
  35.   Arabs on the verge of outdoing Piltdown Man 20:01  |  Chick 05/10/07
  36.   Ask a silly question 20:17  |  Danite 05/10/07
  37.   Chinese wisdom for Slowman 21:27  |  Anshel Pfeffer 05/10/07
  38.   The Future of Israel: Olmert Government or Ahmadinejad Worse? 22:12  |  Yoram 05/10/07
  39.   Uzi and colonisation 04:27  |  Truth 06/10/07
  40.   This tent which called the Jewish Home. 05:07  |  Akram Zekaria 06/10/07
  41.   This forum as a model 05:53  |  Mark Lincoln 06/10/07
  42.   To the editors of Haaretz 05:59  |  Mark Lincoln 06/10/07
  43.   # 8, PALESTINIAN PRINCE 06:06  |  indrajaya 06/10/07
  44.   #34john and the inability to know what you are writing about 07:34  |  victor hardman 06/10/07
  45.   From Camp David to Annapolis 08:00  |  Martin List,M.D. 06/10/07
  46.   Israel has not won a sigle war, but makes demands as if it has 08:42  |  Velvl Shmerlson 06/10/07
  47.   41# Mark Lincoln. This forum as a modal..pt-1 08:45  |  Akram Zekaria 06/10/07
  48.   Behold the fatted calf 09:08  |  Rowan Berkeley 06/10/07
  49.   41#Mark Lincoln.This forum as a modal pt-2 09:22  |  Akram Zekaria 06/10/07
  50.   42#Mark Lincoln.To the editor of Haaretz.pt-1 10:37  |  Akram Zekaria 06/10/07
  51.   42#Mark Lincoln.To the editor of Haaretz.pt-2 10:56  |  Akram Zekaria 06/10/07
  52.   Why do some talkbackers seem to think that... 12:53  |  J.M.Jordan 06/10/07
  53.   In answer to Jimmy Deng`s #15 13:46  |  J.M.Jordan 06/10/07
  54.   Velvl Shmerlson/Israel: very thoughtful post 46! 13:51  |  J.M.Jordan 06/10/07
  55.   #39 The Truth Unveiled 18:08  |  Kate 06/10/07
  56.   # 40 Akram, let`s try applying that stmt God in our prayers... 20:03  |  TRY IT 06/10/07
  57.   President Bush`s Political Decline .... 08:35  |  Dagma 07/10/07
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