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Best be pessimistic
By Danny Rubinstein

The reason for the latest disruption in Hamas' relations with Fatah can be found in a brief video clip aired by an Israeli television station on Rosh Hashanah eve. It showed a disabled Fatah operative from the Gaza Strip, who is currently hospitalized in Ashkelon's Barzilai Medical Center. The man was recovering from wounds he had sustained several months ago in fights with Hamas operatives.

The wounded Fatah man walked up to a group of Israel Defense Forces soldiers who had been wounded in last week's Qassam strike on the IDF basic training base in Zikim. The Palestinian wished the soldiers well and told them that, contrary to Hamas, he and his friends were in favor of peace.

Back in Gaza, Hamas' spokespeople seized the opportunity by issuing a torrent of condemnations of the Fatah man congratulating the soldiers of the Zionist occupation. Both Hamas and Fatah never miss out on an opportunity to slander and inveigh against the other. Recently - and this trend is confirmed by opinion polls carried out in the territories - Hamas' popularity seems to be declining. In the meantime, Fatah appears to be getting stronger.

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This development stems in part from the violence Hamas' Executive Force, which is in control of Gaza's streets, employs against Fatah. A well-known example is the footage of prayers held in the streets of Gaza. Fatah's Gaza operatives have declared that they would rather pray in the street than enter the mosques where sermons are delivered that include incitement against Fatah and the Palestinian Authority. Hamas' Executive Force responded by saying that praying on the street constitutes a disruption of public order, and dispersed the worshipers by force.


The result was a plethora of pictures showing Hamas men beating supplicants. The Palestinian public was outraged. Human rights organizations in Gaza and in the West Bank declared that preventing people from praying was an unpardonable crime.

Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas' prime minister in Gaza, and his men are practically begging to engage in dialogue and to reconcile with Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas. But he remains intransigent. He will only talk to Hamas if its leaders undo the bloody coup they staged in Gaza and issue an apology. That is not going to happen, and so the gulf between Hamas and Fatah has remained - and possibly even widened.

This ongoing rupture affects a host of issues, first among them the negotiations for the release of Gilad Shalit, the IDF soldier Hamas abducted more than a year ago, and his exchange for the freeing of Palestinian prisoners. Everybody realizes that it would be a great achievement for Hamas if negotiations were to succeed and hundreds of Palestinian prisoners would be released after having been convicted for security-related offenses.

All the parties involved - the Egyptians, Abbas' men, European and Arab mediators and Israeli representatives - do not wish to present Hamas with any sort of achievement. And so the talks have become stuck in a stalemate.

The rupture between Hamas and Fatah is a serious factor adding difficulty to the regional summit on the Middle East that the Americans are planning for November in Washington. It limits the conference's chances of success.

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is trying to promote the summit in her visit to the region, but in the past few days it has become doubtful whether the meeting will take place at all. There is no exact date, no list of participants. Naturally, there is no agenda either.

Syria isn't invited. The Saudis are hesitant about participating without securing an Arab consensus first. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak says it's better not to hold the summit, because its failure could cause crippling damage. Abbas, who will be heading to the United Nations General Assembly next week, is disappointed in Prime Minister Ehud Olmert because he and his representatives won't commit to a schedule for the negotiations or the implementation of the Agreement of Principles.

Palestinian sources says Israel's government - which is interested in the summit taking place - should make much more effort (concessions, in other words) to make the Arabs attend the Washington conference. But the same sources add that Israel's representatives are hesitant about reaching compromises with Abbas because of his weakness and Fatah's rupture with Hamas.

The conclusion is that it's best to be pessimistic. The upcoming weeks will see much talk about negotiations, but not about political changes. Least of all, there will be discussion over significant changes in the reality in the West Bank and Gaza.
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  1.   danny after 90 years can you be optimistic ? 10:25  |  victor hardman 17/09/07
  2.   ABBAS WAS BEING CONSUMED BY EMPTY PROMISES 10:34  |  indrajaya 17/09/07
  3.   No way out for zionism 11:15  |  Hannah 17/09/07
  4.   Danny Rubinstein finally gets it right. 11:18  |  Ken Jurist 17/09/07
  5.   ISRAEL Is The Obstacle To Peace! Not The Palestinians. 11:28  |  Proud Pal Defender 17/09/07
  6.   Rubinstein and Israel "apartheid" 1st try 11:29  |  Alberto Cohen 17/09/07
  7.   Rubinstein and Israel "apartheid" 2nd try 11:30  |  Alberto Cohen 17/09/07
  8.   Rubinstein and Israel "apartheid" 3rd try 11:31  |  Alberto Cohen 17/09/07
  9.   There can never be any separate Arab political entity 12:53  |  Uzi 17/09/07
  10.   Wow Alberto.." Cohen" 12:53  |  Jude Davies 17/09/07
  11.   Now is the time to abolish the PA and end the Israeli occupation: 13:14  |  Uzi 17/09/07
  12.   Uzi.#9. Your post is so full of 13:30  |  Hubal 17/09/07
  13.   there is no other choice... 13:33  |  ravi 17/09/07
  14.   Fatah are the good guys? 13:41  |  Natallie Durson 17/09/07
  15.   #9 Uzi - look at the man in the mirror 14:03  |  other jewish eyes 17/09/07
  16.   re#10 Underestimating Rubinstein intelligence ! 1st try 14:21  |  Alberto Cohen 17/09/07
  17.   re#10 Underestimating Rubinstein intelligence ! 2nd try 14:22  |  Alberto Cohen 17/09/07
  18.   re#10 Underestimating Rubinstein intelligence ! 3rd try 14:23  |  Alberto Cohen 17/09/07
  19.   uzi and dreaming 14:27  |  truth 17/09/07
  20.   india has to change its persecution of the untouchables 15:18  |  ravi 17/09/07
  21.   the new president of indonesia is more corrupt then suharto 15:19  |  indrajaya 17/09/07
  22.   is this the same danny rubinstein 15:23  |  qassem 17/09/07
  23.   Best wishes to the wounded 15:26  |  KUTW 17/09/07
  24.   The Gaza man in hospital and Fatah 15:30  |  KUTW 17/09/07
  25.   Incitement to hate in mosques 15:33  |  KUTW 17/09/07
  26.   Shalit 15:38  |  KUTW 17/09/07
  27.   i love to paint poodles 15:46  |  natallie durson 17/09/07
  28.   Hubal, could you please consider some facts? 15:56  |  Uzi 17/09/07
  29.   Alberto, Alberto - Robert The Bruce 16:02  |  Jude 17/09/07
  30.   Commentary 16:07  |  B 17/09/07
  31.   Qassem 16:08  |  Jude Davies 17/09/07
  32.   20... another ravi... 16:36  |  ravi 17/09/07
  33.   danny rubinstein moans no hotel room 16:37  |  qassem 17/09/07
  34.   re#28 Still don`t agree ! Never d less Shana Tova ! 16:48  |  Alberto Cohen 17/09/07
  35.   in india the more black you are the more you are 17:29  |  ravi 17/09/07
  36.   Be pessimistic Rubinstein 17:41  |  Philip 17/09/07
  37.   #5 17:48  |  Scrolls 17/09/07
  38.   To Indrajaya #21 17:56  |  Otto Rand 17/09/07
  39.   ISLAM ONLY RECOGNISES PEACE BUT TODAYS ISRAEL 18:08  |  ATİLLA KARAGÖZOĞLU 17/09/07
  40.   A new record please Qassem 18:40  |  Jude Davies 17/09/07
  41.   Better & more logical - Keep it up 18:55  |  Jude Davies 17/09/07
  42.   hey Jude 19:17  |  Goldenberg 17/09/07
  43.   # 33 Quassem 19:27  |  Madeleine 17/09/07
  44.   Nation-buiding of that so called Palestinian State 19:30  |  Sandman 17/09/07
  45.   Pathetic Olmert loses again 19:30  |  Tosefta 17/09/07
  46.   Advice to Abbas 19:34  |  Tosefta 17/09/07
  47.   # 6 Rubinstein & Israel 19:54  |  Jean B 17/09/07
  48.   #3 Couldn`t be More Wrong 20:03  |  Fred 17/09/07
  49.   #5 Bravo! Proud Palestinian Defender 20:13  |  Dutch 17/09/07
  50.   # 43 Madeleineon Rubinstein 20:21  |  Mark B 17/09/07
  51.   # 5 Couldn`t agree more 20:25  |  Kris 17/09/07
  52.   Time for Bush to pressure Olmert 20:27  |  Tosefta 17/09/07
  53.   Rubinstein has lost all credibility 21:07  |  Shalom Freedman 17/09/07
  54.   # 50 on Rubinstein 21:14  |  Eliyahu H 17/09/07
  55.   # 48 please use data collected after 2003 21:23  |  Kris 17/09/07
  56.   Sandman...on collapsed societies 21:35  |  Ibrahim 17/09/07
  57.   #45toosofta grasps at straws and illusions 22:22  |  victor hardman 17/09/07
  58.   The slighted titled Shalom Freedman 22:39  |  Dutch 17/09/07
  59.   #3, Hannah.. 00:33  |  Silvienne 18/09/07
  60.   Peace can only come through resounding Israeli victory & no ... 02:20  |  Chaim 18/09/07
  61.   What`s your point Natallie? 02:54  |  Dedursion 18/09/07
  62.   Durson, the rainbow poodle. 03:03  |  Dedursion 18/09/07
  63.   TOSEFTA the APIKORES 04:02  |  JOJO 18/09/07
  64.   chaim and "peace" 04:36  |  Truth 18/09/07
  65.   arabs dont want to attend because... 05:10  |  Igor D. 18/09/07
  66.   Hamas 05:23  |  paul 18/09/07
  67.   No need for conference, just talking of it acheives the purpose 06:54  |  Voice of Reason 18/09/07
  68.   # 3 The terrible like a plague appears again... 07:33  |  Misha 18/09/07
  69.   # 14 Wrong, Fatmah the best pal.... 07:39  |  Misha 18/09/07
  70.   PEA CE! only after WAR...... 09:17  |  Dagma 18/09/07
  71.   RE NO 42 10:11  |  Jude Davies 18/09/07
  72.   #70 11:50  |  Skipper 18/09/07
  73.   To Voice of Reason # 67 - ` No Peace in our time 12:30  |  Dolly 18/09/07
  74.   Rubinstein is a traitor 14:49  |  Sidney 18/09/07
  75.   for Danny boy-Israel=apartheid=Nazi state 18:32  |  zvi 18/09/07
  76.   74 Sidney , Danny Rubinstein`s obligation 20:54  |  Joan 18/09/07
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