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Last update - 07:18 12/09/2007
ANALYSIS: The air strike in Syria is a secret that cannot be kept
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, Haaretz Correspondents

At six in the evening Tuesday, and while Christiane Amanpour was dropping her CNN bomb, Major General Eliezer Shkedi, chief of the air force, was milling about the yard at the air force center in Herzliya, shaking hands with airmen who excelled during the Second Lebanon War. The media had come in numbers but they did not succeed in getting anything out of Shkedi, besides a lukewarm greeting for the New Year.

Will the new year really be better than the last one? A lot depends on the impact of that air strike that Syria claimed occurred in the north of the country six days ago. Even if Amanpour's report is not completely accurate, the fog surrounding the circumstances of the attack is beginning to lift. Even more important than the details of the incident is the fact that CNN, an international media outlet, has lifted the gauntlet and tried to solve the mystery. It is now a matter of time before the main elements of the story are released to the media.

Both the Syrian and the Israeli leadership have been extraordinarily silent about this. According to European diplomats, the Syrians have made it clear that Israeli silence over the incident is "worthy."

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It is still difficult to assess what the ultimate response of the Syrians will be, at least on the basis of the statements being made these past six days. On the one hand, the Syrians warn of the consequences and are angry that no one seems interested in condemning Israel's illegal raid. On the other hand, they are not talking about the "strategic" target that was bombed in their territory - according to Lebanese press. If they admit it, this would be a troubling sign that they are weighing a serious response.

The officers on the lawn in Herzliya did not seem phased by any concerns about Syrian reaction.

Of course, the air force did not suffer the humiliation of the ground forces. But even the air force, which succeeded in destroying the long-range Fajr rockets early in the war, was responsible for the failure in effectively countering the short-range Katyushas.

The tension is also being felt in the South, where events have an indirect link to what is taking place in the North. The Qassam rocket fired by Islamic Jihad against the Zikkim army camp was not launched following a direct order from Damascus. Nonetheless, it seems that Islamic Jihad (a proxy for Hamas) is making every effort to heat up the southern front.

Islamist organizations will not oppose helping Syria, which has generously hosted them for years now. However, most of their attention is focused on ways of undermining the diplomatic process between Israel and the Palestinian leadership in the West Bank. A Hamas spokesman described Tuesday's attack as "a victory from God," using language used by Hezbollah to describe its war against Israel.

Was the rocket attack a response to Israel's air strike in Syria? Highly unlikely. This is too small a reaction. Syria will continue in its efforts to drain Israel, for example, by ensuring that the IDF is on endless alert in the North. For nearly the same reasons, Israel will not respond to the massive strike against its soldiers at Zikim with a major operation against the Gaza Strip. So long as everyone is concentrating on the northern front, the IDF will prefer not to get involved in a two-front fight.

The attack at Zikkim exposed a major malfunction: Two years following the Gaza disengagement, the army has not kept its promise to effectively fortify the base, which had come into the effective range of the Qassam rockets since the pullout. Two years ago, when Mrs. Levy dragged her husband and they pulled their daughter out of the base in front of the cameras, people thought that she was hysterical.

There is no justification for relocating a military base inside the sovereign territory of the country at a time when the kibbutzim and the moshavim bordering the Gaza Strip are being hit by rockets. On the other hand, in none of the other communities are 40-odd people sleeping in the same tent without real protection.
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  1.   The Syria strike mystery reveals... 04:09  |  Dutch Dirk 12/09/07
  2.   Dutch Dirk, what "bombs in Syria"? 04:45  |  Jake 12/09/07
  3.   Dutch Dirk re: debka time-out 04:50  |  MI Quacker 12/09/07
  4.   1Dutch Dirk,the forthcoming attack on Iran is the accepted wisdom 04:57  |  lakshmi 12/09/07
  5.   ...not much. (#1) 05:17  |  Chaim 12/09/07
  6.   Analysis - the secret it took a week to get the lie right 05:22  |  Mark Lincoln 12/09/07
  7.   Debka is partially off because of Rosh Hashana, they 05:23  |  Man deVoshkes 12/09/07
  8.   As It Has Been for Decades - Mexican Standoff 05:45  |  Jane 12/09/07
  9.   Debka - Secret Agent Man 05:51  |  Alex 12/09/07
  10.   rumor mill in lebanon, someone big was assasinated 06:10  |  beirut 12/09/07
  11.   DUTCH DORK AND LAKSHMI 06:17  |  Brant 12/09/07
  12.   The mission--#6 doesn`t have a clue 06:19  |  Rich 12/09/07
  13.   Incorrect English 06:24  |  Lenny 12/09/07
  14.   The opening shots of the next war 06:29  |  Natallie Durson 12/09/07
  15.   Syria Strike 06:35  |  Sair 12/09/07
  16.   Why does Syria permit weapons to Hizballah 07:22  |  Anat 12/09/07
  17.   Amos Harel - business as usual 07:23  |  Alex 12/09/07
  18.   #8 Jane, you are such a laugh.... 07:29  |  Johnboy 12/09/07
  19.   Nonsensical 07:31  |  Moses David 12/09/07
  20.   #9 Someone big was assassinated, but no-one has noticed? 07:31  |  Johnboy 12/09/07
  21.   #6 Mark Lincoln... 07:33  |  KNOE 12/09/07
  22.   "massive strike against its soldiers at Zikim" ? 07:36  |  redmike 12/09/07
  23.   #11 I`d suggest Mark is closer to the truth that CNN 07:41  |  Johnboy 12/09/07
  24.   #14 The only thing you got right, Sair 07:52  |  Johnboy 12/09/07
  25.   Assad "flipped" 07:52  |  James Kevin O`Leary 12/09/07
  26.   #13 General Durson!? Quote from your "pearls" following. 08:01  |  Man deVoshkes 12/09/07
  27.   beirut: spare us your silly rumors 08:36  |  Suha 12/09/07
  28.   Successfully failed to find a route to Iran? 08:44  |  Pablo B 12/09/07
  29.   Mark Lincoln, Thank you 08:47  |  Dutch 12/09/07
  30.   EITHER YOU WITH ISRAEL, OR AGAINST ISRAEL 08:50  |  indrajaya 12/09/07
  31.   16 Alex 09:27  |  Dutch 12/09/07
  32.   Mystery ~ "A great hole in the desert"! close proximity...... 09:43  |  David Stewart 12/09/07
  33.   Israel`s cannon fodder. Say NO to conscription! 09:47  |  Maureen Ann 12/09/07
  34.   #6, Mark L: "would have been fed to the press" 09:56  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 12/09/07
  35.   #6, Mark, "tried to pretend it never happened" 10:00  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 12/09/07
  36.   Air strikes & "A great hole in the desert" ~ a water reservoir .. 10:01  |  David Stewart. 12/09/07
  37.   Syria won`t say what was hit. Do Criminals call the Police? 10:04  |  Efox 12/09/07
  38.   #6, "cowardly and criminal vermin" 10:07  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 12/09/07
  39.   Israel used ARAM missiles when caught by Syrian radar 10:09  |  Clickfool 12/09/07
  40.   re: Mark Lincoln 10:13  |  Efox 12/09/07
  41.   Who`s kidding who? one front now or two fronts later. 10:32  |  Reuven 12/09/07
  42.   johnboy "the laughing boy aint no israeli" 10:36  |  zebulun 12/09/07
  43.   No secret arms coming from Eygpt,ACT! 10:36  |  sam 12/09/07
  44.   Mark Lincoln, stuff that hole 10:50  |  FOX 12/09/07
  45.   # 6, MARK LINCOLN 10:57  |  indrajaya 12/09/07
  46.   Mark Lincoln 11:00  |  Phillies Wright 12/09/07
  47.   # 28, CLICKFOOL 11:00  |  indrajaya 12/09/07
  48.   Durson 11:03  |  michael3k 12/09/07
  49.   Nothing to say 11:22  |  Shmuel 12/09/07
  50.   when will we be rid of the corrupt suharto family 11:22  |  indrajaya 12/09/07
  51.   The writing is on the wall - this aint working anymore 11:27  |  thru-other-eyes 12/09/07
  52.   #39 more total crap from the yellow streak 11:47  |  victor hardman 12/09/07
  53.   Phillies Wright, you and Mark Lincoln drinking from same swamp? 11:47  |  Maven 12/09/07
  54.   "A GREAT HOLE IN THE DESERT" I AM TELLIN Y`ALL THAT THIS WAS.... 12:19  |  David Stewart. 12/09/07
  55.   This is funny 12:21  |  Alex 12/09/07
  56.   L`ORIENT LE JOUR 12:23  |  Shmuel 12/09/07
  57.   Alex what you don`t know, filled your post #55 12:44  |  FOX 12/09/07
  58.   #39 Shows how LITTLE you know FOOL 12:52  |  Ari ben Yisrael 12/09/07
  59.   Now dog-gone Maven - If they put their money where their is - 12:52  |  David Stewart. 12/09/07
  60.   aiur strike story and cnn 12:56  |  elliot 12/09/07
  61.   #18 victory 13:10  |  Rab Burns 12/09/07
  62.   #57, FOX 13:29  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 12/09/07
  63.   Ari Ben Yisrael - LOL 13:39  |  ChanahS 12/09/07
  64.   For Victor Hardman # 52 13:39  |  Clickfool 12/09/07
  65.   Ari Ben Yisrael, the new B4 series 13:50  |  FOX 12/09/07
  66.   and here is the list of syria`s defenders 13:51  |  zebulun 12/09/07
  67.   johnboy your fellow apologist for syria 13:54  |  zebulun 12/09/07
  68.   As Rosh Hashanah rolls in 14:04  |  FOX 12/09/07
  69.   TO JOHNBOY 14:10  |  Oetis 12/09/07
  70.   Blame Game 14:29  |  Mary 12/09/07
  71.   You want to know? 14:31  |  Maerton 12/09/07
  72.   kim jungboy 14:32  |  zebulun 12/09/07
  73.   #64 more inside info from mr craven of 000 15:10  |  victor hardman 12/09/07
  74.   CJK #34 & 38 15:32  |  American in NY 12/09/07
  75.   Trivialities strewed before us by the Arab apologists 15:46  |  Jasmine Murphy 12/09/07
  76.   #69 Oetis 15:49  |  Johnboy 12/09/07
  77.   #6: no indication that there is a failed mission 15:56  |  Paul Freedman 12/09/07
  78.   For Ari Ben Yisrael # 58 16:03  |  Clickfool 12/09/07
  79.   #39 Hey Clicky! 16:03  |  Peter 12/09/07
  80.   # 6 Mark Lincoln 16:11  |  Lynn 12/09/07
  81.&n