Irrespective of how one interprets the facial expressions made by those in the know in response to Syrian claims (true or false) of Israel Air Force overflights of Syrian territory, the regional reality remains unchanged. The Syrian-Iranian alliance is still in place and may even have been strengthened; Damascus's interests in Lebanon remain unchanged; Syria's influence over rejectionist Palestinian groups continues; the Golan Heights is still an open wound. Any military operation against Syria that might be approved in the future would at best undermine the Syrians' military capabilities, and perhaps also delay the danger of immediate war in the North - if such a danger ever actually existed - a bit longer.

The Second Lebanon War should have taught us that the success of a military operation against an extremist Sunni-Shi'ite coalition is not measured in the number of rocket launchers destroyed by our skilled pilots or the number of enemy fighters killed. It turns out that this war, which failed in terms of both military performance at the front and the handling of the Home Front, produced a regional political achievement. Fear that Hezbollah's gains would strengthen the hold of Iran and the groups that benefit from its protection and funding led the Middle East's secular-pragmatist coalition to close ranks. The effort to promote its peace initiative is the Arab League's response to Iranian efforts to extend its influence over Iraq, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.

Syria is playing a double game. On one hand, it is dipping into Iran's arms caches, complementing what is lacking there with purchases from Russia, and sending its surpluses to Hezbollah. On the other hand, it voted in favor of the Arab League initiative, which offers Israel peace and normalized relations in return for occupied territory. Even as he unfurls a red carpet for the visiting Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Bashar Assad is asking Turkey to convince Israel to talk with him about a peace process. On one hand, Syria expects Washington to mediate between Damascus and Jerusalem, and on the other hand, it has become the transit point for suicide bombers into Iraq.