ANALYSIS: Despite IAF incident, Israel less worried about Syria - Haaretz

Subscribe to Print Edition

Sat., September 08, 2007 Elul 25, 5767

Israel Time: 17:53 (EST+7)

web haaretz.com

Back to Homepage

Print Edition

Diplomacy

Defense

Arts & Leisure

Real Estate

Jewish World

National

Advertising

Magazine

Week's End

Business

Opinion

Rosner's Domain

Anglo File

Books

Travel

del.icio.us

Digg It! new

Last update - 02:08 08/09/2007

ANALYSIS: Despite IAF incident, Israel less worried about Syria

By Amos Harel, Haaretz Correspondent

Sometimes a picture says it all. Officials have been unusually silent since Syria reported that an Israel Air Force plane invaded its airspace early Thursday. However, the Israel Defense Forces spokesman released a video clip of the Rosh Hashanah toast at army headquarters, which tells a story in eight seconds: Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi grins from ear to ear as he shakes the hand of his deputy Kaplinsky.

Israeli-Syrian tension is still around, but the ball seems to have been bounced into the Syrian court, and the worry of recent months seems to have eased.

The Syrian Arab News Agency first reported the incident at 2:30 P.M. Thursday. Israel Air Force war planes entered Syria's airspace in the north via the Mediterranean Sea, it said. Anti-aircraft missiles were fired at the planes, which fled after dropping munitions. Later reports said the planes had dropped fuel tanks.

	Advertisement

More than an hour after journalists first requested a response, the IDF spokesman said vaguely that the IDF does not comment on such reports. Since then, Israel has been silent. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert refrained from commenting on the Syrian reports at a Kadima gathering, and his ministers, uncharacteristically, said nothing.

This time, the flood of statements came from the Syrian side. The message was that Israel does not want peace and is endangering peace in the region. Damascus reserved the right to react to the violation of its sovereignty at a time and place of its choosing.

The question for Israel is whether Syria will respond to this mysterious aerial incident (assuming it happened). Could it ignite war? The unofficial signals from Jerusalem soothingly suggest that there is no need for any wider flare-up. No one expects Bashar Assad to react with all-out war.

On one hand, Assad will find it hard to swallow a seemingly blatant Israeli violation of Syrian sovereignty without retaliating. On the other hand, with so much glass in his house (smuggling arms to Hezbollah, aiding anti-American terror in Iraq), he may not hasten to throw stones.

Damascus is not saying what the IDF plane allegedly attacked. But the fact that it made a public statement could indicate that Syria intends to react. Otherwise, why report an event on which Israel is not commenting? On the other hand, experience from past attacks shows that Assad tends to refrain from reacting hastily.

Perhaps Syria needs time to overcome the shock of Thursday's attack. One option is that it could respond with terrorism. Thursday's incident is the climax of tension that has been building since the Second Lebanon War ended last summer. The IDF tried to regroup quickly in anticipation of another confrontation. Syria, noticing Israel's weakness, tried to improve its position vis-a-vis the IDF; it also feared that Israel wanted war with it to erase last summer's humiliation. The Syrians launched a rapid rearmament campaign with Russian and Iranian help.

Both sides held large military exercises, and the Israeli media spoke of a flare-up resulting from a "miscalculation." But Israel was also worried about Assad's growing closeness with extremist leaders, headed by Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Even after Thursday's humiliation, it is doubtful whether Assad is eager to clash directly with Israel. On Thursday, it appeared more likely that he would look for indirect ways of getting revenge. The Syrian threat to the Israeli home front, whose vulnerability was exposed in the war with Hezbollah, has grown considerably following Syria's upgrade of its anti-aircraft, surface-to-surface and anti-tank missiles.

The Israeli leadership has learned a few lessons from the Winograd Committee's report. It is acting in a cautious, sober and coordinated manner.

It is to be hoped that the story will end without war. But it is important to remember that Israeli intelligence does not always understand the behavior of the Syrian leader. Assad is not an Israeli and does not think like one. His reactions could be very different than what Israel expects or sees as reasonable.

Bookmark to del.icio.us


	Yes. I don't want to
	Saying 'Insh'Allah' to Jewish bosses was the politest way of telling them 'I don't want to.'


	What comes naturally
	Jaffa-born photographer Amos Nachoum specializes in close-ups of large mammals.




1.	FANTASTIC JOB, THE COURAGOUS IDF PANTSYR ASSESSMENT TEAM, BRAVO!!	23:32	\|	Pavel	07/09/07

2.	So what?	00:28	\|	Mark Lincoln	08/09/07

3.	#1, I agree with Pavel	01:06	\|	Cipora Julianna Kohn	08/09/07

4.	it`s not the first, nor the last time	01:30	\|	abbey	08/09/07

5.	Syria isn`t as foolish as Saddam was.	01:37	\|	Dutch Dirk	08/09/07

6.	In Israel, who has control of the IAF/IDF...	01:50	\|	Maureen Ann	08/09/07

7.	# 6 Maureen Ann: " In Israel, who has control	03:26	\|	17	08/09/07

8.	# 3 CJK	03:28	\|	Axel	08/09/07

9.	Israel`s Debka Files reveal: it was a test of...	03:39	\|	Dutch Dirk	08/09/07

10.	Not possible, "17"...	04:49	\|	Silvienne	08/09/07

11.	#9 Debka?	05:29	\|	Murray of Montreal	08/09/07

12.	#9 Dutch Dirk	05:30	\|	TWogunz	08/09/07

13.	analysis	06:01	\|	michel	08/09/07

14.	Israeli nomenklatura acting like mafia!!!	06:14	\|	Moise	08/09/07

15.	# 10 Silvienne - "Not possible, "17"....	06:15	\|	17	08/09/07

16.	#15, Well, gotta admit it, 17...	06:41	\|	Silvienne	08/09/07

17.	ISRAEL NEEDS A STRONG ENEMY IN THE REGION	07:34	\|	indrajaya	08/09/07

18.	why worry	07:54	\|	ralph	08/09/07

19.	Israel dreams its invencible.	08:21	\|	Niva dos santos	08/09/07

20.	Indrajaya - Nukes	10:47	\|	Reid	08/09/07

21.	Guys....Are You joking or what ??	10:49	\|	David	08/09/07

22.	To #21. I TOTALLY AGREE !!	11:27	\|	Mathias	08/09/07

23.	No war, but watch out Israel	12:28	\|	Clickfool	08/09/07

24.	To # 21 and 22. You`re right	13:16	\|	Ben - Africa	08/09/07

25.	Syria sends arms to Hezbolah; so Israel has every right	13:19	\|	David	08/09/07

26.	#21#22#24. Perfect words !! Only GARBAGE from MassMedia.	16:26	\|	Paul	08/09/07

Today Online


	Bradley Burston: The Special Place in Hell awards, 5768
	Responses: 242


	Arab League: IAF incident discredits Israel peace bid
	Responses: 212


	Editorial: Britain should support Israel with a royal visit
	Responses: 171


	Gideon Biger: Viable peace deal will involve population transfers
	Responses: 175


	Rosner: Study finds young U.S. Jews alienated from Israel
	Responses: 84


	Ex-Yad Vashem head may face probe into role in WWII murders
	Responses: 112

Rosner's Domain

* Too many Jews here at the Nuremberg trials

* Rosner's Guest: Author of Sex, God, Christmas & Jews

* New Poll: Will the next year be better for Israel?

* Why you should never trust my predictions ever again (if you ever did)

More Headlines
17:07 Syrian paper: U.S. silence 'encouraging Israel'


16:52 Fayad: Mideast peace conference must lead to deal on statehood


15:17 PA official: IDF kills Palestinian teen near Gaza-Israel border


16:14 EU resumes direct financial aid to Palestinian Authority


16:12 Pre-war Jewish cemetery found under Polish apartment building


14:14 Israel to go up against England in Euro 2008 qualifier match


09:45 Bin Laden: The U.S. is vulnerable despite its military, economic strength


17:43 Motorcyclist killed in crash on Highway 77 in the Lower Galilee


11:16 20 wounded as Hamas forces beat Fatah men praying in Gaza