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Last update - 23:08 06/09/2007
ANALYSIS: The question is, how will Damascus respond?
By Yoav Stern, Haaretz Correspondent

Much has been said about and written on this year's "hot summer" in the Middle East. Indeed, Israel, on the one hand, and Syria and Lebanon one the other, have spent the past few months disseminating reports and rumors about preparations for war, while simultaneously issuing warnings to the opposite side.

And today we were party to the first significant military escalation in the region for more than a year. But is this the outbreak of war?

According to reports in Syria, this was clearly an isolated incident, not part of a battle or war. Nevertheless, it does raise a number of questions.

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This could well be a one-off that will not develop into anything more, for the time being, but it does send shockwaves across the region. Every Arab media outlet is covering it intensely, simply because in the Mideast every incident can have unexpected consequences.

Syria, for its part, stressed from the first moment that the story broke that it is retaining the right to respond. The Syrian information minister further clarified that Damascus' political and military leadership is weighing its reaction.

That Syrian response will determine considerably how the rest of the incident plays out. Since the end of the Second Lebanon War in August of last year, Syria has emphasized that it could well engage in "resistance" activities against Israel's occupation of the Golan Heights.

In the lexicon of Arab diplomatic language, the term "moqawama" (resistance) means violent but legitimate activity against Israel. Even so, it seems that Syria will stick to the usual course of action, namely a request for condemnation of Israel by the United Nations Security Council.

Many questions remain unanswered regarding details of the incident, among them the exact number of IAF planes that entered Syrian airspace, and where exactly they were when they drew anti-aircraft fire. According to the Reuters news agency, witnesses saw four planes close to the Syrian-Turkish frontier, while a lone report on the Al-Arabiya satellite channel said that the IAF plane was attacked in the region of Qamishli, not far from the Iraqi border.

It's also hard to figure out the point of the mission. Syrian analysts, however, say that the aim was to examine flight paths inside their country which the IAF could use without discovery by Syrian radar.

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      1.   Nothing Will Become of This 17:56  |  Ron 06/09/07
      2.   Wrong question. Instead - how will Israel respond? 17:57  |  bat yam 06/09/07
      3.   Not just in the ME 18:10  |  Historian 06/09/07
      4.   Damascus response- Drone probe 18:43  |  ezekiel38 06/09/07
      5.   Israeli stock market falls by 1.4% 18:48  |  Chris Linthwaite 06/09/07
      6.   Nothing 19:40  |  El-Birawi 06/09/07
      7.   iran attack coming 19:49  |  igor 06/09/07
      8.   Enough with this Whinging and Hand-Wringing 19:59  |  Krishna 06/09/07
      9.   For some reason, Israel has not learned the lesson of arrogance 20:17  |  Natallie Durson 06/09/07
      10.   What if peace with Palestinian Muslims is impossible? Then what? 20:26  |  AV 06/09/07
      11.   How do we even know if it was an Israeli Plane where`s the proof 20:30  |  Shepherd 06/09/07
      12.   What???? 21:25  |  Fadi 06/09/07
      13.   Iran Drone Probe 21:26  |  ezekiel38 06/09/07
      14.   Iran will determine how Damascus responds! 21:27  |  MARK 06/09/07
      15.   The question is 21:42  |  Lisen 06/09/07
      16.   Shepherd is a Dick 21:45  |  Legion 06/09/07
      17.   syria is a weak little school girl 22:00  |  gino 06/09/07
      18.   Israel is not interest to peace 22:05  |  Rasta 06/09/07
      19.   to igor 22:16  |  nameless 06/09/07
      20.   to Americans 22:27  |  Esther Gynther 06/09/07
      21.   HOW SYRIA WILL RESPOND 22:39  |  Brant 06/09/07
      22.   FADI AND BEATEN ARMIES 22:52  |  Brant 06/09/07
      23.   I trust you to tell the truth, Just say if you did it or no? lol 22:55  |  Simon Mohammed 06/09/07
      24.   about democracy 22:55  |  cool 06/09/07
      25.   Wrong question 23:05  |  Sidney 06/09/07
      26.   Fadi # 10 23:24  |  BRL 06/09/07
      27.   US BEHIND THIS? 23:32  |  Arik Silverman 06/09/07
      28.   The question is, how will Damascus respond? 23:42  |  Steve 06/09/07
      29.   As Jews didn`t burn the Reichstag either ... 00:07  |  Reality 07/09/07
      30.   Was this a political, or a rogue military action? 00:07  |  David Turner 07/09/07
      31.   #22 00:10  |  Fadi 07/09/07
      32.   "Legitimate" Activity? 00:10  |  Efox 07/09/07
      33.   #3 What a dope 00:26  |  Sidney 07/09/07
      34.   #28 POLITICAL OR ROGUE? 00:28  |  Arik Silverman 07/09/07
      35.   Attack on Iran Imminent 00:32  |  JJJ 07/09/07
      36.   FADI 29: MY RESPONSE 00:33  |  Brant 07/09/07
      37.   The question is... 01:23  |  Avi 07/09/07
      38.   #8 What if time travel were possible??? 01:41  |  Avi 07/09/07
      39.   We better start a quick war now ... 01:48  |  Adviser 07/09/07
      40.   Brant #19 01:48  |  TonyL 07/09/07
      41.   Did some Rasta say Apatheid? 01:48  |  Avi 07/09/07
      42.   Hopefuly the next time Syria will shoot it down 02:02  |  spyguy 07/09/07
      43.   USA, Syria and Iran`s Gulf of Tonkin 03:01  |  HonestAbe 07/09/07
      44.   The bigger picture 03:39  |  GT 07/09/07
      45.   wrong question is why is haaretz syria`s mouth piece and behaving 03:59  |  ralph 07/09/07
      46.   Under the radar to Iran? 04:26  |  Omran 07/09/07
      47.   Brant 04:53  |  Paul 07/09/07
      48.   IAF 08:11  |  wiseUP 07/09/07
      49.   35 JJJ - Dream On 08:12  |  Mark of Lewiston 07/09/07
      50.   46 omran 08:37  |  wiseUP 07/09/07
      51.   #25 I suspect you have answered your own question Sidney 14:22  |  Johnboy 07/09/07
      52.   V like Victoty 14:58  |  VV 07/09/07
      53.   Israeli air invasion of Syria 05:17  |  dmaak 08/09/07
      54.   WiseUP attak OK by Turkey! 02:26  |  Omran 09/09/07
      55.   legion the head farmer is hiding and said he made a mistake and 05:58  |  Steve 09/09/07
      56.   You would like that Johnboy, but it didnt happen the guy that 06:10  |  Steve 09/09/07
      57.   #56 An odd comment, Steve 15:26  |  Johnboy 09/09/07
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