They're talking. Who's listening? - Haaretz

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Thu., September 06, 2007 Elul 23, 5767

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They're talking. Who's listening?

By Aluf Benn (Jerusalem) and Shmuel Rosner (Washington)

After a seven-year break in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, the Israeli prime minister is once more in talks with the Palestinian Authority chairman over Jerusalem, the refugees and final-status borders. A plan for the division of the land and an Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank is being formulated once more. The ideas from Camp David are back on the agenda. But Israelis are not interested.

The media is almost totally ignoring the talks between Ehud Olmert and Mahmoud Abbas, focusing instead on summer stories dealing with amusement parks and the airport, and on the periodic clashes between the religious and the secular and between Justice Minister Daniel Friedmann and Supreme Court President Dorit Beinisch. The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, which used to rise when signs of peace were on the horizon, is also ignoring them, and reacting instead only to events on Wall Street. Even the political arena is tired out: The MKs are in recess and the right-wing opposition is finding it tough to spark a protest against "Olmert's concessions."

What's going on here? Are the public, the media and the politicians relying on Olmert and believing that he'll strike the best deal for Israel, or are they simply not taking the prime minister and his Palestinian partner seriously? Or perhaps the prime minister is simply not publicizing his political moves, in an effort to lull his rivals into complacency until he establishes facts on the ground?

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Politicians, political advisers and Olmert associates talk about three factors contributing to this apathy: the fatigue and disappointment of the Israeli public after 15 years of relations with the Palestinians, which have not brought the conflict to an end; a general assessment that Olmert, and certainly Abbas, is too weak, and that even if the two reach an agreement, they won't be able to carry it out; and media behavior typical of August, when the heat and summer vacation distract public attention from political issues.

The Prime Minister's Bureau sees the quiet as boding well for Olmert. First of all, it weakens the argument that talks with Abbas are nothing but spin, meant only to enlist the left and the media to save the prime minister from the anticipated negative findings of the Winograd Committee on the Second Lebanon War and prevent the Labor Party from quitting the coalition. Second, it's easier to make progress in the political process when the right and the settlers are dormant and the coalition is calm.

So far, no significant details from the face-to-face meetings that have taken place between Olmert and Abbas have been leaked, and Olmert is looking for a formula that will be generous enough to bring Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to the peace conference scheduled for Washington in November, yet ambiguous enough to keep far-right minister Avigdor Lieberman in the cabinet. At the start of the week, Olmert told a delegation of U.S. Congress members that he expected he would need another two or three meetings with Abbas before the two sides could begin formulating a document of principles to be presented at the conference. This can be taken to mean that the leaders have yet to reach agreement on the key issues. In the meantime, Olmert is taking pride in the positive atmosphere: "We sit here, in the work room. From time to time I smoke a cigar and he smokes a cigarette."

Livni's red lines

Some people, including cabinet members, are worried by this ambiguity and are concerned that while sitting in the smoke-filled room, Olmert will be swept up into adopting positions that will cause strategic damage to Israel. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni announced her red lines this week: No Palestinian refugee can enter Israel, and a Palestinian state must not become a "terror state."

Olmert is acting cautiously and is not gambling, his associates say. But he was elected on the promise of withdrawing from most of the territories, even unilaterally, and is now trying to follow through on his promise with Abbas' help. In Olmert's view, the clock is ticking: The Bush administration is nearing the end of its second term, and Olmert has less than a year to function effectively. If the peace process doesn't move forward by then, everything is liable to come apart, leaving Israel to contend with Hamas in the West Bank as well as Gaza. This recalls Ehud Barak's situation assessment before heading out to Camp David in 2000. Olmert is also worried by the possibility of terror attacks being carried out by Hamas or Islamic Jihad, in an attempt to disrupt the negotiations.

The domestic schedule, the one connected to the Winograd report and the investigations of the prime minister, must also not be ignored. Olmert is far more worried by the Lebanon war probe than he is by the corruption investigations relating to his role in the privatization of Bank Leumi, his acquisition of a home on Cremieux Street in Jerusalem and the appointments he made at the Industry, Trade and Labor Ministry. He knows that it is the Winograd Committee that will seal his fate. A veteran political adviser who is not considered one of Olmert's confidantes said this week that it would be best for the prime minister if the war report came out right around the time of the peace conference. That way, Olmert will enjoy the political momentum, which will make it easier for him to dismiss the anticipated findings against him. If the report is delayed and the political process sinks into a post-conference lull, Olmert's domestic situation will be a lot less comfortable for him.

The expectations in D.C.

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will visit the region again in mid-September - with a lot of expectations and few illusions, as one of her assistants said. There will certainly be some who take issue with the second element of that description. Rice realizes, or at least says she does, that there is no chance an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement will be implemented shortly. That position is similar to the one taken by U.S. President George W. Bush, who has already been burned and isn't prepared to risk setting the bar too high. He won't ask Israel to take risks or make excessive concessions until the Palestinian house has been put in order.

Rice says that is precisely the reason a "shelf agreement," which would outline the permanent settlement but not be implemented immediately, is necessary. She has heard that Defense Minister Ehud Barak is skeptical about what can be achieved in the field. It's hard for him to remove roadblocks or withdraw from areas where Israeli control means the ability to receive intelligence that may prevent terror attacks. Rice says that if Barak is right and it really is difficult to do something in the field, then progress must be made where it can - that is, in outlining a future agreement.

The White House is not so thrilled with Rice's idea of the international conference, as could be discerned in Bush's speech announcing it. Essentially, said a source familiar with the ins and outs of the speech, Bush was expressing his low expectations. This conference isn't Bush's, it's Rice's. The goals of the meeting were carefully expressed: to help the Palestinians build institutions and to support the Israeli-Palestinian dialogue. Dialogue, as in a discussion between two parties - by no means an internationalization of the process ahead of a solution to the conflict.

But the cautious speech is not a serious enough obstacle to halt the runaway train of expectations. The Americans, an Israeli source said this week, gave the Saudis significant leverage, since if they don't show up, the conference will be seen as an American failure rather than a Saudi one. Therefore, everyone is busy trying to find a formula that will satisfy not only Olmert, Abbas and Rice, but also Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah. This may not be an impossible task, but the short timetable makes it difficult to accomplish.

The Olmert-Abbas negotiations and reports of renewed talks on the refugee issue and on Jerusalem caused the Likud to hope that it could revive the groggy right-wing opposition. On Tuesday, at the initiative of MK Gideon Sa'ar (Likud), the Knesset plenum will convene for a special recess session to discuss the political process. Likud chairman MK Benjamin Netanyahu, who led the protest against the Oslo Accords, will speak out against the prime minister.

Sa'ar, who is frustrated by the lack of media attention, hopes to put opposition to a deal with Abbas at the center of the Knesset's winter session, which begins in another five weeks. Sa'ar is talking about unity on the right, but realizes the difficulty of getting get people to campaign in the streets, public squares and intersections.

The Likud's political goal is to flank Lieberman and get him to leave the government around the time of the Washington conference. The Prime Minister's Bureau is preparing a countermove meant to keep the Yisrael Beiteinu chairman stuck to his seat. Lieberman joined the cabinet knowing that Olmert supports withdrawal from the territories, note bureau officials. He wanted to promote a civil agenda, and Olmert will now try to accede to his requests. That is the backdrop to Olmert's promise this week to bring Lieberman's suggestions on the form of government before the next Knesset session and to move forward on a visa exemption for tourists from Russia. Officials at Olmert's bureau said they hope achievements in these areas will allow Lieberman to look aside when Olmert and Abbas read aloud an agreement of principles at a festive ceremony in the United States.

Rice's promises

In his talks with Washington, Abbas regularly complains, with some justification, of Israeli foot-dragging regarding anything connected to practical steps. But beneath such comments, Abbas' listeners discern satisfaction; just as Olmert sees Abbas as genuinely and honestly interested in making progress, Abbas views Olmert the same way. They are brethren in the cautious optimism they share.

Some are more skeptical. Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayad is interested in investing more in the building of state institutions and less in the theoretical formulation of a future accord. And Barak has discovered the wonders of defending against rocket attacks, without which there will be no peace. Some observers described the phenomenon like this: There is the more practical level of politicians, then the level interested in "concept," and finally, truly in the upper realms, there is only Shimon Peres.

The sincerity shown by Abbas and Olmert is one element the Americans are relying on, but there is another one above it: Rice's promise to Bush. Let me make progress with the Israelis and Palestinians, she told him, and I'll bring over the Arab world. Rice apparently truly believes in this, despite expressions of skepticism on the part of Israeli officials, who have told her they have difficulty finding any evidence of such a process. Rice already has two achievements in the bag: the Arab League delegation to Israel and the Saudi announcement of its participation in the conference.

Rice has learned the lessons of previous conferences. Bill Clinton, she thinks, made a mistake when he got to Camp David without first ensuring the Arab world's support of the agreement being formulated. She believes that this time, the window of opportunity created with the consolidation of "moderate" powers in the Arab world - united against the modified axis of evil consisting of Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas - can lead to a different dynamic. An earlier conference, in Madrid, also has something to teach: Its success lay in the very existence of the conference, but nothing substantial came of it. Bush Sr. and James Baker set the rule that the parties should be allowed to reach understandings themselves, rather than having an agreement formulated for them, and the incumbent president has no plans to change that rule.

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1.	No One`s Interested in Old News	14:32	\|	Mik	31/08/07

2.	NO to the Ravenous Wolves	18:02	\|	Brod	31/08/07

3.	Illusions, Anyone?	18:16	\|	Tony Anthony	31/08/07

4.	Brod	20:08	\|	Mart	31/08/07

5.	they`re talking...	20:26	\|	premkitaasa	31/08/07

6.	what is there to take seriously?	20:30	\|	jared	31/08/07

7.	Mart #3	21:34	\|	Brod	31/08/07

8.	Equitable, feasible and PC peace plan for Palestine:	01:45	\|	Uzi	01/09/07

9.	Hmmm ...	17:08	\|	Daniel	01/09/07

10.	Good Jews must unite to stop dangerous "peace plan".	17:35	\|	Chaim	01/09/07

11.	We Are Standing With You	20:46	\|	Irene Mallon	01/09/07

12.	PM violated criminal code#97 on land giveaway	01:06	\|	sam	02/09/07

13.	Boring!!	02:38	\|	Dan Chazan	02/09/07

14.	Wrong premisses	05:08	\|	Frank	02/09/07

15.	to Chaim #10 - Calm down	10:36	\|	zeev	02/09/07

16.	to Zeev #15	15:00	\|	isaac	02/09/07

17.	to isaac #16	16:47	\|	zeev	03/09/07

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