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Who's in charge in the West Bank?
By Yehuda Bauer

It is impossible for a modern state to exist without a monopoly over military, police or other power, and over its use in accordance with the law. When an alternative center of power is established, causing a significant number of citizens to stop recognizing the government's authority, the government is undermined.

The democratic government has monopoly power in Israel, within the Green Line border. Within the West Bank, Israeli security forces have control in the sense that, with marked success, they protect Israel?s interests in the face of the armed resistance of Palestinian terrorist groups. The price of success is a severely oppressive regime to which Arab residents of the West Bank are subject.
But Israel does not control the several hundred thousand Jewish settlers in the West Bank. They accept Israeli rule only to the extent that it works in their favor. When they think it does not, then in the best-case scenario they ignore it; otherwise, they succeed in resisting it.

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The police, security services and army are under the constant threat of active resistance on the settlers' part, and they submit to that threat. The necessary monopoly over this power no longer exists. There are two states; one committed to a Western democratic government, and the other committed to extremist, messianic religious rule.

Here is a completely imaginary scenario:

Under the pressure of the Quartet and others, the Israeli government and the Palestinian Authority reach an agreement. Israel is to withdraw to the 1967 borders. A Palestinian state will be established involving an exchange of territory that will leave most West Bank settlements in Israeli hands. Israel agrees, after Knesset approval and a national referendum, to evacuate within 10 to 15 years tens of thousands of settlers from communities that are not included in these land swaps. Jerusalem is to be divided, with free trade between both sections. The Temple Mount will be transferred to Waqf control, and everyone will be assured access to it, under efficient international supervision. Palestinian refugees will be absorbed by the Palestinian state, and only a very small number will be able to enter Israeli territory in the framework of family unification. A third party will ensure adherence to the financial side of the deal. Arab states, aside from Syria and Lebanon, will recognize Israel and commit to normal financial ties with it.

Under this imaginary scenario, does anyone think that the tens of thousands of settlers slated for evacuation will leave their homes while singing 'Hatikva' and dancing? It's clear that the resistance will be violent, and the hilltop youth are liable to become armed militias. The Israel Defense Forces, if no changes take place, will be sensitive in its dealings with the settlers rather than resolute, because the government has lost its monopoly over the use of power in accordance with the law.

There is no truth to the well-known tradition that the Second Temple was destroyed due to baseless hatred or internecine rivalry. The Temple was destroyed because religious, messianic extremists forced the nation to rebel against a global empire that it had no chance of defeating. This time there may be a scenario (an imaginary one) in which a radical religious minority thwarts peace because the fanatic political assassins of the Second Temple period have found worthy successors.

The author is a professor emeritus at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
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  1.   This strategy has served Israel for years 09:52  |  Natallie Durson 28/08/07
  2.   JEWISH MAJORITY 10:01  |  indrajaya 28/08/07
  3.   Alarmist scenarios 10:11  |  Sam 28/08/07
  4.   Yeah! 10:19  |  S 28/08/07
  5.   Pragmatism 10:23  |  Henry Wirth 28/08/07
  6.   A SAME OLD MANTRA 10:36  |  indrajaya 28/08/07
  7.   A SAME OLD MANTRA 10:36  |  indrajaya 28/08/07
  8.   Israel Needs To Be Is In Charge Over ALL Of OUR Land 10:42  |  Yishai Kohen 28/08/07
  9.   For a historian, a weak grasp of history 10:49  |  Bertram 28/08/07
  10.   no. 8 Kohen 11:32  |  steve 28/08/07
  11.   "No chance of defeating Rome" 11:32  |  ER 28/08/07
  12.   Defeat 11:42  |  JJ 28/08/07
  13.   To Steve In Minnesota 11:53  |  Yishai Kohen 28/08/07
  14.   #10 Steve 12:10  |  Sarah 28/08/07
  15.   FIRST PRINCIPLES ESTABLISH A DEMOCRATIC GOVT 12:16  |  PAUL HARRIS 28/08/07
  16.   # 8 , # 13 No Jewish rights 12:45  |  Andrew Watson 28/08/07
  17.   Paying the Price for Peace 12:54  |  Jane 28/08/07
  18.   The tail that wags the dog 13:19  |  Mark Lincoln 28/08/07
  19.   ALERT FAKE INDRAJAYA # 6, 7 13:28  |  indrajaya 28/08/07
  20.   #16 Andrew Watson 13:28  |  Sarah 28/08/07
  21.   It will be the settlers who end the occupation indirectly.. 14:08  |  Don Camillo 28/08/07
  22.   Accept the facts - give the settlers autonomy 14:21  |  David Ha`ivri 28/08/07
  23.   G-d, God, Allah and all are on extended vacation 14:49  |  El-Birawi 28/08/07
  24.   G-d, God, Allah and all are on extended vacation 14:49  |  El-Birawi 28/08/07
  25.   Yishai Kohen it is time to face reality 14:52  |  spyguy 28/08/07
  26.   Excellent Article 15:06  |  Jonathan Mok 28/08/07
  27.   #21 camillo and more waffle waffle 15:13  |  victor hardman 28/08/07
  28.   The simplest solution: kick out the enemy & make Yesha Israeli 15:15  |  Yael 28/08/07
  29.   #25 spyguy and the argument since 1948 15:34  |  victor hardman 28/08/07
  30.   Gov`t sent settler to WB, gov`t can bring them back 15:40  |  Rami 28/08/07
  31.   To Spyguy 15:43  |  Ronen Kauly 28/08/07
  32.   Indrajaya #19 -- Have you considered... 15:47  |  bbl 28/08/07
  33.   To Steve in Minnesota 15:52  |  Barry Green 28/08/07
  34.   bergosn and Bauer 16:10  |  zvi 28/08/07
  35.   Pre-Spinoza Judaism is bad for Judaism 16:23  |  See the Truth 28/08/07
  36.   Finally, a Balanced Haaretz Article- pinch me 16:46  |  dyinglikeflies 28/08/07
  37.   imaginary scenario 16:52  |  Dr David I. Gross 28/08/07
  38.   Why let facts get in the way of an argument? 16:58  |  ODP1 28/08/07
  39.   THE ONLY INDRAJAYA 17:17  |  indrajaya 28/08/07
  40.   #30 rami is about as practical as a fafafel !! 17:21  |  victor hardman 28/08/07
  41.   Ignorance and Deception 17:21  |  Daniel 28/08/07
  42.   Dr.Gross,Bauer is Yossi Katz of Olmert,releasing "trial baloons" 17:27  |  Absolute Sweden 28/08/07
  43.   30 Rami - True but Unnecessary 17:56  |  Mark of Lewiston 28/08/07
  44.   eventually hamas... 18:12  |  ravi 28/08/07
  45.   # 37 Dr. Gross 18:35  |  17 28/08/07
  46.   Victors in defensive wars never "pay the price for peace". 18:40  |  Chaim 28/08/07
  47.   El Birawi - on vacation? 18:44  |  Mark Lincoln 28/08/07
  48.   # 35 See the Truth - Pre-Spinoza,,, 19:06  |  17 28/08/07
  49.   The Algeria example suggests a civil war possibility 19:23  |  Tosefta 28/08/07
  50.   bauer`s noxious hallucinations 20:23  |  Stanley 28/08/07
  51.   #29 Hardman - If Israel opts for suicide 21:12  |  spyguy 28/08/07
  52.   What to do now 21:17  |  B 28/08/07
  53.   # 1 Fatmah, Israel might tell the world take the "F` train 21:20  |  Misha 28/08/07
  54.   To Sam #3 21:23  |  Otto Rand 28/08/07
  55.   To Yishai Cohen 21:26  |  Otto Rand 28/08/07
  56.   #31 Ronen Kauly, I believe in the basic greed 21:26  |  spyguy 28/08/07
  57.   To Yishai Cohen, ocher israel 21:34  |  Otto Rand 28/08/07
  58.   I remember when they tried to whack - Tosefta 21:37  |  Mark Lincoln 28/08/07
  59.   Prof Bauer as a mashal 21:40  |  mg 28/08/07
  60.   To Bertram 21:48  |  Otto Rand 28/08/07
  61.   To ER 21:58  |  Otto Rand 28/08/07
  62.   To Andrew Watson 22:07  |  Otto Rand 28/08/07
  63.   To Don Camillo 22:15  |  Otto Rand 28/08/07
  64.   Well after reading his article - lets hope its NEVER Yehuda 22:20  |  pace306 28/08/07
  65.   Otto Rand re Yishai Cohen 22:30  |  Danite 28/08/07
  66.   ODP1 22:32  |  Danite 28/08/07
  67.   spyguy#51 22:37  |  Danite 28/08/07
  68.   Otto Rand 22:43  |  Sam 28/08/07
  69.   Otto Rand 22:47  |  Danite 28/08/07
  70.   Govt.that does not control:resign!read Univ.Declar.of Human Rts. 23:09  |  sam 28/08/07
  71.   International Troops May Be Needed to Remove Settlers 23:19  |  Mr. Knowitall 28/08/07
  72.   The 4-state solution is unstable 23:25  |  Tosefta 28/08/07
  73.   #49come on now toosofta ! how were the expansions financed? 23:27  |  victor hardman 28/08/07
  74.   Appologies for Spyguy 23:28  |  Schtarker Yid