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The mysteries of American logic
By Zvi Bar'el

Even in an era of climate change it is difficult to presume that this autumn, when the international peace conference is due, will produce a flowering of Israeli-Saudi relations. But when fantasizing about "Humus in Mecca," one mustn't criticize the major arms deal, worth $20 billion, that the United States and Saudi Arabia have reached, particularly when Israel is a main client in the deal. On the other hand, it is not gratuitous to dive into the depths of the American logic behind its Middle East policy.

The planned arms sale to Saudi Arabia would "help bolster forces of moderation and support a broader strategy to counter the negative influences of Al-Qaida, Hezbollah, Syria and Iran," Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice explained. Let us forget for the moment that Al-Qaida's underpinnings were in Saudi Arabia and that most of the September 11 terrorists held Saudi citizenship. Let us also ignore for the moment that expressions of hatred against Christians and Jews are still common in Saudi schools, and let us not mention the paradox that Saudi citizens, who will benefit from innovative American arms, have great difficulty getting into the United States, being automatically suspect. Let us close our eyes, concentrate hard, and talk only about strategy.

For example, what does a deal for sophisticated aircraft in Saudi Arabia have to do with calming the situation in Iraq? Saudi Arabia and Iraq share an 800-kilometer border, a border that is largely unsupervised and extremely porous, like the Syrian border, to the entry of terrorist elements from Saudi Arabia. It is also known that Saudi institutions bankroll Sunni political groups in Iraq, some of them terror-affiliated, and that Saudi Arabia has made it clear that it will not back the government of Nouri al-Maliki, who has Washington's support. But while Syria is hit with sanctions for similar activity, Saudi Arabia is courted as a client.

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George Bush, as is well known, is an authorized exporter of democracy, but what strategic message does Bush convey to "the democracy of Iraq," or that of other countries, when he supports the "democracy" of Saudi Arabia with arms? And why is $200 million in aid to Egypt frozen because that country does not invest enough in nurturing democracy and civil rights, whereas no such demand is made of Saudi Arabia? Has the development of democracy in the Middle East ceased being a strategic goal, or are oil-rich countries exempt?

Perhaps the logic of Bush's strategy can be found in another dark corner: in that same attempt to convey a $20 billion strategic message to Iran via Saudi Arabia. But there is faulty logic here as well. Saudi Arabia has already demonstrated that it cannot pose a military challenge, neither to Saddam Hussein nor to Iran, even with the finest weapons at its disposal. What strategic balance are we talking about here? If sophisticated weapons in Saudi hands will deter Iran, then maybe the Iranian threat is not as dangerous as we thought? And when a nuclear-according-to-foreign-sources country like Israel cannot deter Iran, how will state-of-the-art fighter planes do so?

And one more tiny matter. If you have to stabilize the situation in Iran and block negative Iranian influences, and to that end must equip Saudi Arabia, what is the meaning of the joint talks between Iran and the U.S. on the Iraq question?

If it is hard to be impressed by the pure strategic logic of the Saudi arms deal, it is permissible to worry about America's strategic standing in the region - because neither Saudi nor Kuwaiti arms protect the Gulf, but rather the massive presence of the U.S. army and the understanding that it is Washington who will act against any threat to the Arab states. Israel's safety also depends on this. The U.S. failed to create a balance of terror with Saddam Hussein, as it has failed to create one with Iran. It established a terrorist state in Iraq and is incapable of stopping the export of terrorism from there to other Arab countries.

The fall festival starring Saudi Arabia will, in the best-case scenario, propel a process of some sort between Israel and the Palestinians, but will not dismantle the threatening strategic configuration in the region. That would take not fighter planes for Saudi Arabia, but rather a genuine shift in Washington.
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  1.   it`s all about oil .... 10:23  |  Leona 05/08/07
  2.   Zvi Bar`el 10:36  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 05/08/07
  3.   Its Not "These Weapons" its the Saudis in General 10:49  |  Jimmy Carter 05/08/07
  4.   Simple Answer 11:02  |  Tony 05/08/07
  5.   Who says Bush is pushing for democracy? 11:27  |  American 05/08/07
  6.   For oil they would sell their mother 11:36  |  mehmet 05/08/07
  7.   Iraq will be the death of "Exporting Democracy" 11:40  |  Natallie Durson 05/08/07
  8.   ZEV THE JOKE OF THE CENTURY 11:47  |  paul harris 05/08/07
  9.   Got it all Wrong 12:14  |  Ronnie Wolman 05/08/07
  10.   The fundamental ommission from the article 12:27  |  tony fisher 05/08/07
  11.   Mehmet: US Self Interest and Its view of the world 12:40  |  Ronnie Wolman 05/08/07
  12.   BUSH WANTED TO CHANGE THE MAP OF ME 12:52  |  Marco 05/08/07
  13.   Public Beheadings = Not Good = Evil 13:04  |  Ovadiah ben Avraham 05/08/07
  14.   americas achilles heel... 13:25  |  ravi 05/08/07
  15.   The Brits can`t stop grovelling to them either 13:28  |  PETER SM 05/08/07
  16.   N.DURSON.Re " It is a questionable democracy "A Simple solution 13:41  |  PETER SM 05/08/07
  17.   lies, damn lies 13:57  |  truth 05/08/07
  18.   Where is AIPAC ?? 14:27  |  David James Vickery 05/08/07
  19.   Strangeley enough I agree with Mehmet 14:58  |  Alon Fisher 05/08/07
  20.   HE IS A DISGRACE FOR DEMOCRACY 14:59  |  indrajaya 05/08/07
  21.   11 RONNIE 15:09  |  JON FEIGENBAUM 05/08/07
  22.   18 David James Vickery 15:13  |  JON FEIGENBAUM 05/08/07
  23.   ALON # 19 15:25  |  JON FEIGENBAUM 05/08/07
  24.   Saudi Arabia: Is it a State??? 15:26  |  Fatih 05/08/07
  25.   And human rights? 15:47  |  W 05/08/07
  26.   Jon: Flight or Fight 15:49  |  Ronnie Wolman 05/08/07
  27.   Fight or Flight II 15:54  |  Ronnie Wolman 05/08/07
  28.   Fight or Flight III 16:03  |  Ronnie Wolman 05/08/07
  29.   # 11 Ronnie Wolman 16:05  |  Lynn 05/08/07
  30.   #25 THE PASS EXTENDS TO CHINA RUSSIA AND ALL 16:06  |  paul harris 05/08/07
  31.   RONNIE 26 27 spot on but iI posed a question 16:08  |  JON FEIGENBAUM 05/08/07
  32.   # 20 indrajaya 16:21  |  Lynn 05/08/07
  33.   Saudis 16:23  |  oolie 05/08/07
  34.   # 31 JON 16:25  |  Lynn 05/08/07
  35.   Since when did Bush actually support democracy? 16:26  |  Mark Lincoln 05/08/07
  36.   # 30 paul harris 16:28  |  Lynn 05/08/07
  37.   The "human rights" standard 16:31  |  JON FEIGENBAUM 05/08/07
  38.   # 25 W on human rights...... 16:31  |  Lynn 05/08/07
  39.   Jon and Lynn: Hot Topics 16:33  |  Ronnie Wolman 05/08/07
  40.   # 33 oolie of Atlanta 16:33  |  Lynn 05/08/07
  41.   #34 LYNN 16:38  |  JON FEIGENBAUM 05/08/07
  42.   Just a good opportunity to export weapons 16:51  |  Tosefta 05/08/07
  43.   Bush Administration "Logic" 16:53  |  Stacey Siepmann 05/08/07
  44.   Another mystery 17:19  |  Harriet 05/08/07
  45.   i`m impressed 17:20  |  melvin 05/08/07
  46.   export democracy there so they can hold elections 17:20  |  Alon Fisher 05/08/07
  47.   # 41 JON 17:35  |  Lynn 05/08/07
  48.   # 43 Stacey of Des Moines 17:38  |  Lynn 05/08/07
  49.   Many years ago, my father called it 17:47  |  Yonatan 05/08/07
  50.   One Samll Missing Detail 18:05  |  An Honest American 05/08/07
  51.   Stupid Question of the Day 18:09  |  Ron 05/08/07
  52.   Joint talks with Iran? 18:17  |  Lynn 05/08/07
  53.   # 7 Durson 18:21  |  Lynn 05/08/07
  54.   # 49 Yonatan 18:44  |  Lynn 05/08/07
  55.   #50 An "Honest American" 19:15  |  Yonatan 05/08/07
  56.   ME lost its last chance? 19:18  |  Cyrstal Ball 05/08/07
  57.   lynn 47 19:20  |  jon feigenbaum 05/08/07
  58.   #50 as opposed to who? 19:23  |  JON FEIGENBAUM 05/08/07
  59.   Don?t worry OIL will stop to rule the world 19:31  |  Gil 05/08/07
  60.   Ms Durson Does Not Understand Hamas 19:48  |  Joseph 05/08/07
  61.   Another small missing detail - an honest american 20:06  |  Mark Lincoln 05/08/07
  62.   Democrats determined to win the war 20:09  |  Jewish American 05/08/07
  63.   Careful what you ask for; you might get it. 20:24  |  Mark Marshall 05/08/07
  64.   # 13: Ovadia ben Avraham 21:05  |  Mark Marshall 05/08/07
  65.   Correct but there may be other considerations 21:12  |  Shalom Freedman 05/08/07
  66.   #30 21:35  |  Londo 05/08/07
  67.   Yonatan:" Many years ago my father.." 21:49  |  Greg 05/08/07
  68.   # 62 Jewish american 22:14  |  Lynn 05/08/07
  69.   Saudi Democracy 22:16  |  Bill 05/08/07
  70.   ovadiah 13 22:26  |  realism 05/08/07
  71.   America has logic? That`s new. 22:38  |  Darin 05/08/07
  72.   Saudi terror schools on par with Aryan-Iran as wwIII danger 23:03  |  David 05/08/07
  73.   DARIN FROM FRANCE 23:33  |  JON FEIGENBAUM 05/08/07
  74.   The Mysteries of Bar`el in the Bubble 23:43  |  Tod Zuckerman 05/08/07
  75.   Lies 23:46  |  Nechama 05/08/07
  76.   Democracy in Middle East Overly Ambitious or Just Stupid 23:51  |  Jane 05/08/07
  77.   Unfortunately the US Isn`t Making 1$ from Iraqi Oil 00:17  |  Jane 06/08/07
  78.   Lynn 00:32  |  Jewish American 06/08/07
  79.   The end of the Oil Age 00:44  |  Tor 06/08/07
  80.   Obama and Pakistan 00:49  |  Jewish American 06/08/07
  81.   Reinstate the Hashemite Family in Arabia! 01:15  |  Brian Freund 06/08/07
  82.   #9..Ronnie Wolman 01:57  |  Nemesis 06/08/07