Subscribe to Print Edition | Thu., August 09, 2007 Av 25, 5767 | | Israel Time: 00:11 (EST+7)
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Hurrah! The Saudis are coming!
By Aluf Benn (Jerusalem) and Shmuel Rosner (Washington)

Rehavia. Achievement

Condoleezza Rice's aides have become adept at spotting when their boss is irritable: she starts scratching one of her hands. When she feels like someone has done her wrong, she gets "that look": "Her eyes narrow, her face tightens, her jaw is set, and she doesn't look away, but stares intently instead." When that happens, it's not a good idea to be around her. Nor is it advisable to be nearby the American secretary of state when she is tired and signals her boredom with the conversation by rubbing her face with a finger.

These warning signs are described in "The Confidante," a new biography of Rice, by Glenn Kessler, the diplomatic correspondent of The Washington Post. In the book, Dov Weissglas, who was a senior adviser to former prime minister Ariel Sharon and spent many hours with Rice, is quoted as calling her "a magician in the art of language," referring to the firm messages she frequently transmitted through him. Weissglas was well aware of the fact that the diplomatic language she used resembled a transparent covering for a fist.

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In the book, Rice's best friend, Stanford University's Prof. Coit Blacker, relates what happened when she went to buy jewelry and the saleswoman brought her cheap earrings from the display: "Let's get one thing straight," Rice told the sales clerk, "You're behind the counter because you have to work for the minimum wage. I'm on this side because I make considerably more." The store manager quickly brought her the expensive earrings. The lesson of the story is clear: The secretary of state knows how to get what she wants, by force if necessary.

Kessler's main argument is that in her current position, as the top diplomat of the United States, Rice is mainly occupied with repairing the damage she did during her term as national security adviser. "The invasion of Iraq, the missed opportunities with Iran, the breach in relations with Europe, the NK [North Korean] nuclear breakout, the creation of secret CIA prisons in Europe, the Arab anger at a perceived bias against the Palestinians - all of these problems were the direct result of decisions she helped make in the White House. Now, as secretary of state, she has tried mightily - and with limited success - to unravel the Gordian knots she tied in GWB's [President Bush's] first term," Kessler writes. He is similarly critical of the wrongheaded decision to allow Hamas to take part in the Palestinian elections, in which Rice was involved as secretary of state.

Rice had no reason to scra0tch her hand nervously during her trip to the Middle East this week. After a series of frustrating visits to the region, which were characterized by unpleasant talks with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, she arrived in Jerusalem on Wednesday with an achievement: an initial agreement by Saudi Arabia to take part in the peace conference (the "international gathering") President Bush wants to convene this fall. It is obvious to everyone involved that Riyadh's presence will be crucial to the conference's success; the Saudi presence will upgrade it beyond another standard encounter between Israel and its immediate neighbors, and will indicate the revival of the political process with the support of the Sunni "axis of moderation."

Last week, Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah read in The New York Times that there were problems in his relations with Washington. It could be that in an effort to correct that impression he honored Rice and her traveling companion, Defense Secretary Robert Gates, with a lavish feast at his palace in Jeddah on Tuesday evening. The buffet table was 20 meters long and the guests were seated opposite a huge aquarium in which two large sharks dined contentedly.

There is no aquarium in the guest room of the prime minister's residence in the Jerusalem neighborhood of Rehavia, where Rice and her aides dined the following day. In Olmert's view, the sharks are to be found in the State Comptroller's Office, in the Winograd Committee investigating the Second Lebanon War, and perhaps also among his cabinet ministers, some of whom would like to take over his position. But even without the impressive setting, Olmert tried to make his guest comfortable and opened the evening with small talk. Tell me about the workout room in the White House, he asked Rice, who, like him, starts her days by running on a treadmill. It was while she was doing her morning exercise, Kessler writes, that her aides told her about the Hamas victory in the Palestinian elections. Rice listened, displaying disappointment, and went on running.

The indirect messages Rice conveyed between Olmert and King Abdullah did not go beyond the conventional in Israel's relations with the Arab world. As always, the Arabs want to discuss essence, whereas the Israelis are more interested in a photo-op. In exchange for their participation in the conference, the Saudis want to discuss the "core issues" - permanent borders, Jerusalem and the refugees. In response, Olmert said that the Persian Gulf representatives would have to hold political status and not be made up of junior officials or ambassadors. The Saudis want to show that they are looking after the Palestinians; Olmert is getting ready for the expected criticism from the right about "far-reaching concessions in return for a joint photograph." The question is whether there will also be a handshake, and how much that will cost Israel.

Egypt. Stability

"We are here to talk about the long term," U.S. Defense Secretary Gates told his Arab hosts at Sharm el-Sheikh. The United States, he added, has been in this region for 60 years, "and we will continue to be here." On Wednesday, the Pentagon's Web site headlined this additional quote by Gates: "Multiple administrations of both American political parties have concluded that stability in the Gulf region is a vital American interest - an interest and a responsibility we will not abandon." Gates is quite a bland official, who, in contrast to his predecessor, is not known for eyebrow-raising quips. He is better described in the pithy terms Winston Churchill used for the secretary of state of the Eisenhower administration, John Foster Dulles: "Dull, duller, Dulles." Still, in a fatuous remark at a press conference, Gates sent six years of American policy in the Middle East up in smoke. Where is the stability of Gates (and Rice) this week, and how does it sit with the criticism Rice herself leveled just a year ago at all the presidents - Democrats and Republicans - who "pursued stability at the expense of democracy"?

The second Bush administration this week returned to the formula of the first Bush administration: regional alliances, ensuring regime stability, binding those regimes to the United States by means of alluring arms deals and, yes, a regional peace conference. The Baker-Hamilton report, which was pushed deep into the drawer more than half a year ago, has found its way back to the table in a freshened-up format - with one important difference: For James Baker, the proposed conference was the key to an buffer against withdrawal, as one of the tools being wielded to help the United States win in Iraq.

Israel, which is - as always - occupied primarily with itself, would do well to remember that the renewed peace process Rice is promoting is no more than a secondary arena for the major battle over the Persian Gulf. That is why Gates has come here, that is also why Rice has come here. The gravity of the hour was emphasized in their joint, harmonious appearance. That could never have happened in the period of Rice and Rumsfeld, or during the time of Rumsfeld and Colin Powell.

Defense Ministry. Realism

Defense Minister Ehud Barak played the role of the "bad cop" during Rice's visit. As is his wont in talks with representatives of the international community, Barak cooled the ardent messages of Olmert, President Shimon Peres, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Vice Premier Haim Ramon. Contrary to their optimism and their demonstrative desire for a political process, Barak presented himself as a sober realist. After all, it was he who plunged into the depths of negotiations with the Palestinians and the Syrians before them; it was he who went further than anyone else and emerged badly burned. The scar has yet to heal.

After the de rigueur comments for the record - "I am in favor of a diplomatic process," "I am for facilitating life for the Palestinians - they're neighbors, not an enemy" - came the warnings: You are concentrating on the Palestinians, Barak told Rice, but you must not forget the "Shi'ite banana" that extends from Iran through Syria, to Hezbollah and Hamas. A comprehensive regional solution is needed.

In his new post, Barak is increasingly sounding like Sharon. His English is better, but the messages are identical: The cause of the Israeli-Arab conflict is the Arabs' refusal to accept the existence of a Jewish state in their midst; the concern for the Palestinians is important - but while their distress is understandable, the security of Israel and its citizens overrides all.

The truth is that the differences between Barak and Olmert, and even between Barak and Peres, are more in the realm of style than when it comes to essence. While the prime minister lavished Rice with enthusiastic words about a document of principles and a Palestinian state, she did not succeed in moving even one checkpoint in the West Bank or in advancing the restoration of the West Bank's cities to Palestinian security responsibility. First let them improve their security mechanisms and then we will see, Olmert and Barak told her, while Peres, an advocate of the Jordanian option, talked to her about the differences between the West Bank and Gaza. Like Olmert, Rice is also a quick learner and can make rapid decisions. Her failures, according to her biographer, stem from inconsistency. She does not bother to ascertain that what has been decided on is actually being implemented, but advances to the next topic. This approach was the reason why she missed the opportunity of the "passages agreement," which she reached with Israel and the Palestinians. Now it will be interesting to see if she continues with her efforts to convene a peace conference and translate it into a genuine diplomatic process, or will make do with a media event.

Capitol Hill. Aid

On October 26, 1981, The New York Times did an inventory count: The paper discovered that 53 senators opposed the sale of AWACS espionage planes to Saudi Arabia and only 38 were in favor of the proposed deal. Nearly two weeks earlier, Newsweek had reported that the Saudi deal would probably "become [President Ronald] Reagan's first major foreign policy defeat." The magazine said that the likely outcome of the vote would be a "humiliation." Those two weeks proved an illuminating lesson in the Saudis' juggling ability in Washington's power games. On October 28, two days after the Times published its count, 52 senators voted for the deal, 48 voted against.

The chairman of an American concern persuaded Sen. Orrin Hatch; the CEO of Union Pacific, the railway company, spoke with Senators Jim Exon and Edward Zorinsky, from Nebraska; the oil companies put pressure on Senator David Boren, from Oklahoma. This week, loud voices were heard casting doubt on the administration's wisdom and questioning the deal it had devised. The Democratic presidential hopeful John Edwards was the first to speak out, declaring that "the Saudis have fallen short of what they need to be doing" in the fight against terrorism. In Congress, many legislators - most of them Jewish, by the way - explained that they will consider voting against the deal.

Some of them also quietly expressed a certain amount of astonishment at the speed with which Olmert had signaled his support for the deal. But that was exactly the American plan. "I want to draw your attention to a statement Prime Minister Olmert made yesterday," the deputy secretary of state, Nicholas Burns, said in a press briefing. In contrast to the 1980s, this time Israel chose to cooperate. Deals of this kind, an Israeli observer said this week, always pass in the end anyway. The only question is the price and the quid pro quo.

The minimum value of the U.S.-Saudi deal - $20 billion - convinced even the less enthusiastic officials that increasing U.S. aid to Israel at this point in time is essential. The grumbling over Israel's "schnorring" mentality should be put off until better times, they suggested. A senior State Department official even went so far as to say that "three billion a year" - the amount promised Israel during the coming decade - "is not all that much." In any case, the great majority of the aid is earmarked for defense procurement in the American market - more purchase coupons or subsidies to the U.S. military industry than cash on the line. What can be acquired for that amount today, the senior official noted, is far less than what could be bought for seemingly less aid 10 years ago. The price of weapons has risen.

Washington. Policy

A few dozen listeners took their seats on Tuesday in the Politics and Prose Bookstore on Washington's Connecticut Avenue. They had come to hear Prof. Jeremi Suri, of the University of Wisconsin, talk about the hero of his new book, Henry Kissinger. Suri, whose book is entitled "Kissinger and the American Century," is interested in the meaning of Kissinger's career "for American society - not just politics." One of the book's chapters is devoted to the flamboyant use Kissinger made of his Jewishness. The Arabs respected him because they believed the Jews ran the world and that he, Kissinger, was "the top Jew"; and he constantly reminded the Israelis and Jewish leaders in the United States that he was one of them. Suri told the audience that the story he likes best concerns the gift the Saudis gave Kissinger at the start of every meeting with him: a luxurious edition of "The Protocols of the Elders of Zion." In the book, Suri argues that Kissinger's background - the childhood In Germany, the uprooting to the United States, the Orthodox education, the return to Europe as an American in uniform - also shaped his future policy. Kissinger placed the defense of "Western civilization" at the top of his agenda. Democratization did not interest him very much, nor did it play a part in his support for the war President Bush launched in Iraq. He simply believed that the "bad guys" had to be done away with before they could start making trouble for the West.

Like Kessler in his biography of Rice, Suri, too, believes that the personal background of leaders and the worldview in which they were raised outweigh the strategic considerations in the formulation of concrete policy.
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  1.   Israeli Stupidity and Lack of Self-Respect 11:13  |  Tod Zuckerman 03/08/07
  2.   Key to the ME: The Saudis 11:33  |  Ronnie Wolman 03/08/07
  3.   Many promises will be made, none kept 12:47  |  Natallie Durson 03/08/07
  4.   What`s so good about the news? 13:04  |  Aharon Rosenbaum 03/08/07
  5.   Reprenhesible Kissinger did not protest at receiving "Protocols` 13:31  |  Shalom Freedman 03/08/07
  6.   Ronnie Wolman 14:11  |  rich 03/08/07
  7.   Saudi Arabia`s Planned JIHAD AGAINST U.S/OTHER COUNTRIES 14:44  |  Linda Rivera 03/08/07
  8.   I`ll Believe It When I See It 15:31  |  Bill Foonman 03/08/07
  9.   Saudi Arabia-TOP promoter Global JIHAD.No 1 Exporter of TERRORISM 15:44  |  Linda Rivera 03/08/07
  10.   Some things are more exciting then others 15:50  |  Cry 03/08/07
  11.   Ummm..so whats the good news? Saudies dealing with Israel cant 16:02  |  SLAVO 03/08/07
  12.   Hurrah The Saudis are Coming 16:37  |  iletzter 03/08/07
  13.   #2RONNIE WAFFLES HIS WAY TO IDIOCY 16:47  |  paul harris 03/08/07
  14.   To Tod Zuckerman # 1 17:20  |  Dagma 03/08/07
  15.   Paul Harris: Loud but Blind 17:20  |  Ronnie Wolman 03/08/07
  16.   Rice and Saudis 17:24  |  Brod 03/08/07
  17.   To Natallie Durson # 3 17:35  |  Dagma 03/08/07
  18.   To Cry # 10 17:50  |  Dolly 03/08/07
  19.   To SLAVO # 11 18:11  |  Missknowall 03/08/07
  20.   Mr. Wolman - could he be right?? 18:18  |  Simon Jenkins 03/08/07
  21.   Saudi selling Palestine for a Radish, in fact LESS than a Radish 18:30  |  Wissam 03/08/07
  22.   FACTS. 18:47  |  Natasha 03/08/07
  23.   Not yet 19:46  |  Fortuna Benmayor 03/08/07
  24.   Simon Jenkins The Saudi Balancing Act 20:04  |  Ronnie Wolman 03/08/07
  25.   SAUDIS BEHEAD PEOPLE ON THE STREET 20:50  |  mehmet 03/08/07
  26.   The Saudi House of Cards 21:29  |  Joel Weltman 03/08/07
  27.   25 Bil in Arms from US Got Saudis Running 22:06  |  Me 03/08/07
  28.   #24 RONNIE THE PUNDIT WAS WRONG ABOUT GAZA TOO ! 22:13  |  paul harris 03/08/07
  29.   The Zionist hostility towards the Saudi involvement 22:32  |  Axel 03/08/07
  30.   Wrong Again Paul Harris 23:22  |  Ronnie Wolman 03/08/07
  31.   If you hate the Saudis, just wait.... 23:48  |  Jimmy 03/08/07
  32.   Axel #29 00:15  |  Nad 04/08/07
  33.   Mehmet #25 01:09  |  Nad 04/08/07
  34.   Mehmet 25, IS IT THE BEHEADING OR LOCATION OF THE BEHEADING? 01:51  |  Nad 04/08/07
  35.   Fortuna # 23 02:15  |  Nad 04/08/07
  36.   That last point re: leaders background...frighteningly true!!! 02:33  |  Virginia 04/08/07
  37.   Saudis are coming 03:51  |  JLEE 04/08/07
  38.   The Saudis should trade their land if they want concessions 09:55  |  Dave 04/08/07
  39.   To Axel # 29 12:53  |  Dagma 04/08/07
  40.   To Axel # 29 13:03  |  Dagma 04/08/07
  41.   To Nad # 34 13:40  |  Dolly 04/08/07
  42.   who needs who...? 15:02  |  ravi 04/08/07
  43.   # 40 dagma 20:34  |  Axel 04/08/07
  44.   to all comments 02:09  |  proud syrian 05/08/07
  45.   THE ONLY ARAB-ISRAEL `PEACE` THE SAUDIS HAVE IN MIND IS THE FLWG: 06:32  |  G. Marcus 05/08/07
  46.   Proud Syrian 44 15:25  |  Cyasher 05/08/07
  47.   Dolly # 41 23:31  |  Nad 05/08/07
  48.   Dave #38 00:34  |  Nad 06/08/07
  49.   Dolly P.S. 00:50  |  Nad 06/08/07
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