A couple of quick notes about the possible Saudi participation in the fall Middle East peace conference:


1. There was some excitement in Israel today, as the news from Saudi Arabia hinted at the possibility that the Saudis will consider participation in the peace conference.

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"We hope that many Arab countries will attend this international meeting, including Saudi Arabia," read a statement from the Prime Minister's Office issued after Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal said his country would be willing to attend.

As I wrote two weeks ago, "a 'standard' regional conference, with Egypt and Jordan, could be pulled together any time, and would have zero influence on Israeli public opinion. Only Saudi Arabia can provide a boost in public support for the prime minister."


2. So how likely is it now that they will actually come?

That depends on the reading of their statement from today. Here are two possible interpretations, both accurate in content, but somewhat different in tone:

The more optimistic option, from Haaretz: "The Saudi foreign minister indicated Wednesday that his country may attend a Middle East peace conference proposed by U.S. President George W. Bush, which is set to take place in the fall."

And the more skeptical version from The New York Times: "Prince Saud said that Saudi Arabian officials will consider attending President Bush's planned Israeli-Palestinian peace conference this fall only if they are assured that the conference tackles 'substantive' issues, and isn't 'just a photo op'."

And an even more cautious tone from Reuters: "There is an international movement [for peace]... Israel should respond to these pressures," Prince Saud said, without promising that Saudi Arabia would attend the conference.

3. Judge for yourself, with this quote from the Saudi Prince: "When we get an invitation from the minister [Rice] to attend, when this takes place, we will study it and we will be keen to attend...

"We are interested in a peace conference that deals with substantive matters of peace, issues of real substance, not non-substantive issues. If that does so, that becomes of great interest to Saudi Arabia... We would look very closely and very hard at attending."

4. Bottom line: The Saudis were playing their usual game. As I wrote for Slate the other day, the Saudis are "using tactics they've been perfecting for decades - never fully committing themselves, always leaving the door open to other alternatives to keep the United States on its toes."

This is the way they've been doing business for quite a while. They don't see any reason to say yes or no right now, and will make their decision down the line. In the meantime, pressure will be mounting on both America and Israel to accommodate the Saudi agenda for the conference, since Riyadh is the key for those wanting to present this conference as a relative success.

5. Judging by the reaction from Israel, Prime Minister Olmert is ready to adjust some of his positions to ensure Saudi participation. One must bear in mind though, that the opposition might make it harder on him when it comes to discussing issues related to final status negotiations in a regional format.

Here's an excerpt from the weekend column I wrote with Aluf Benn two weeks ago:

"The Saudis would have agreed, perhaps, to come to a conference that would serve as a platform for talks on the final status accord, especially if Israel would accept the Arab peace initiative as a basis for the discussions. But this is not what the Americans have in mind, and officials in Israel are confident that they won't be pressured to adopt the Arab initiative in its current form. The fall conference is intended, according to the president, 'to give diplomatic support to the parties in their bilateral discussions and negotiations,' but by no means to replace them."

It seems as if the Saudis are trying to give America and Israel the opportunity to change their minds.