The defense establishment will be keeping a close eye on developments in Lebanon's domestic political scene, particularly those in the coming two weeks. While intelligence analysts do not believe that the growing tensions inside Lebanon will necessarily spill over and affect the calm along the border with Israel, preparations are nonetheless in place to monitor developments.

The crisis in Lebanon currently centers on the confrontation between Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and his anti-Syrian backers, known in Lebanon as the March 14th movement, on one side and Hezbollah and other pro-Syrian factions on the other.

The tenure of pro-Syrian president Emile Lahoud is due to end in September, and the two camps seem unable to reach an agreement on the appointment of a new president. According to the Lebanese Constitution, if a new president is not appointed, the authority and responsibilities of his office are transferred to the government.

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The pro-Syrian opposition does not recognize the legitimacy of Siniora - and it is possible that, in the absence of a president, politics in Lebanon will come to a standstill. During the past two years, political tensions erupted on a number of occasions into street violence between the rival groups. Under particular circumstances, Hezbollah and its political allies may seek to establish an alternative government to that of Siniora.

Two other Lebanon-related developments are expected to take place at the United Nations in the coming days. First, the Security Council is scheduled to discuss a report on the implementation of Resolution 1701, the resolution that brought an end to the Second Lebanon War through an agreed cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah. Also, a report on the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister, Rafik Hariri, is expected to be released by the committee investigating the matter on behalf of the United Nations.

The report on Resolution 1701, whose main points were published two weeks ago, concludes that the ban on the unauthorized transfer of arms into Lebanon is not being upheld and that weapons are continuously making their way into the country.

Moreover, the report's authors recommend the deployment of international inspectors at crossings on the Syria-Lebanon border, a proposal that Damascus strongly opposes.

The report on the Hariri assassination is expected to include a progress report on the investigation.

According to a number of reports, Syria has called on its citizens to leave Lebanon in the near future, but did not provide any reasons for this request.

None of these developments is directly related to Israel and some are extensions of developments that have been underway in Lebanon for some time. Nonetheless, the fact that all three issues are taking place within a relatively short period of time will likely add to the country's instability.

In recent weeks intelligence officials in Israel said that at this stage there is no change in Hezbollah's policies and it does not appear that the group is interested in a confrontation with the IDF in the near future, mostly because it is still recovering from the damage it sustained during the war.