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Last update - 10:21 08/06/2007
An Israeli defeat in Sderot
By Ze'ev Schiff

Even if we declare dozens of times that Hamas is under pressure and wants a cease-fire, it will not erase the fact that in the battle for Sderot, Israel has in effect been defeated. The superfluous declarations about the possibility of war with Syria should not divert our attention from the defeat in Sderot.

Israel is experiencing something in Sderot that it has not experienced since the War of Independence, if ever: The enemy has silenced an entire city and brought normal life there to a halt. The despair of Sderot's mayor is one sign of what is happening. The sight of the town's elderly residents returning from a "rest and relaxation" trip and refusing to alight from the bus and go home is additional proof that what is happening in Sderot is a national disgrace.

It is worth listening to the words of reservists from Sderot and other communities in the south, who have met twice with Defense Minister Amir Peretz. They did not threaten to refuse to do reserve duty, but they explained that they live on Israel's front line and feel that the rest of the country and the government are not standing behind them. Their feeling is that the government has failed in the defense of the home front.
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And, in fact, the present government in particular, but its predecessor as well, has suffered a resounding defeat here. The government has not succeeded in turning bombarded Sderot into a national defense project. That reinforces the assessment that this government is incapable of leading the nation in a major military confrontation.

It is also a defeat for the defense establishment, including the Israel Defense Forces. For years, no solution, not even a partial one, has been found to the problem of the Qassam rockets. Until the Second Lebanon War, the home front was considered secondary. It will take years until Israel gets this problem straightened out. There have been decisions, but in a government ruled by petty bureaucrats, the Finance Ministry is refusing to release even sums that have already been approved.

The enemy that defeated Sderot is a terror organization that is militarily weak, yet in spite of its weakness, it has succeeded in achieving deterrence vis-a-vis Israel, just as Hezbollah did. The government and the defense establishment try to explain away the situation with excuses such as the following: This would be a difficult battle, in which large numbers of Palestinians would be killed and Israel would suffer many losses; the IDF would be stuck in the Gaza Strip at a time when the Syrian front is likely to flare up; international public opinion would oppose a harsh Israeli response. Meanwhile, the IDF is not even returning fire at the sources of Qassam launches if the rockets are fired from populated areas.

What matters is the final result, not the explanations. And the result is that there is mutual deterrence between Israel and the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip. Israel finds itself in a military draw with Hamas. That is a serious national failure, which in my opinion is worse than the failure of the Second Lebanon War.

Moreover, two important strategic facts have emerged, which cannot be ignored. The first is that the changes in the battlefield and the nature of the fighting have led to a situation in which Israel's strategic (and not only geographic) depth is insignificant. If what is happening in the Gaza Strip were to happen to Israel in the West Bank, we would be back in a situation like that during the War of Independence, and this could include the expulsion of terrorism supporters.

Therefore, Israel must insist for now on isolating the West Bank, and it must also reject the security benchmarks plan proposed by U.S. security coordinator Major General Keith Dayton, as it is liable to lead to Hamas penetration of the West Bank. Even if we achieve a real cease-fire in the Gaza Strip, at least one year of quiet should pass until the cease-fire is extended to the West Bank.

The second fact is the almost total disappearance of the strategic principle set by David Ben-Gurion, to the effect that upon the outbreak of a military confrontation, Israel must quickly transfer the fighting to enemy territory. At present, it is the enemy who is immediately transferring the fighting to Israeli territory.
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  1.   All this is the result of Oslo 10:48  |  Shlomo from Tel Aviv 08/06/07
  2.   Israeli defeat 10:55  |  Zoe 08/06/07
  3.   arrogant, almost fascist 10:59  |  KA 08/06/07
  4.   If Israel Was Smart 11:07  |  Bernie 08/06/07
  5.   Oh Really!!!! 11:13  |  Reality 08/06/07
  6.   The enemy within 11:15  |  sh 08/06/07
  7.   WHAT BATTLE ? THE WRITER IS BATTY 11:17  |  paul harris 08/06/07
  8.   Statement of KA #3 11:22  |  Yitzhak 08/06/07
  9.   Palestine and Darfur...the parallels 11:24  |  Maria 08/06/07
  10.   Thank you for saying the truth 11:29  |  Ab 08/06/07
  11.   Yitzhak 11:45  |  KA 08/06/07
  12.   maria offers advice from afar BARBARIANS SHE SAYS 11:53  |  paul harris 08/06/07
  13.   Not Hamas, Olmert defeated Israel 12:22  |  Jonathan S 08/06/07
  14.   #1 - try hard to think a bit. 12:23  |  Tamar 08/06/07
  15.   KA - incomplete logical phallacy 12:32  |  Ariel 08/06/07
  16.   Not over yet!!! 12:32  |  Julie 08/06/07
  17.   #4 Bernie - your idea must be modified 12:35  |  * BEN JABO 08/06/07
  18.   #3 KA KA 12:40  |  * BEN JABO 08/06/07
  19.   Religion and barbarism 12:56  |  Warren 08/06/07
  20.   Israel defeated Israel in the battle of S`derot 13:10  |  Steven 08/06/07
  21.   So Learn From Our Mistakes 13:19  |  Dr David I. Gross 08/06/07
  22.   Not Hamas but the Government 13:22  |  Tzfonit 08/06/07
  23.   No place to live? Make it your own launch pad for a while!!! 13:29  |  MakesSense 08/06/07
  24.   Ben, Why Kill Innocents? 13:41  |  Bernie 08/06/07
  25.   Steven: Putting the Enemy to Sleep 13:53  |  Ronnie Wolman 08/06/07
  26.   Tzfonit/Bracha #22 14:22  |  DRORA 08/06/07
  27.   KA is right about this article being a piece of fascistic trash, 14:25  |  lakshmi 08/06/07
  28.   NAJD, not Sderot 14:27  |  Pete 08/06/07
  29.   1Shlomo from Tel Aviv,your schemes have an air of unreality,wake 14:28  |  lakshmi 08/06/07
  30.   #24 Bernie 14:32  |  * BEN JABO 08/06/07
  31.   #27, "the Palestinians are the Undefeated" 14:53  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 08/06/07
  32.   Ronnie Wolman 14:57  |  GABE1 08/06/07
  33.   there has not been a battle for Sderot 15:02  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 08/06/07
  34.   #3 KA 15:07  |  John Allen 08/06/07
  35.   #3, KA, asking for total ceasefire 15:13  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 08/06/07
  36.   31Cipora,the shoe might well be on the other foot! 15:25  |  lakshmi 08/06/07
  37.   A Lot Of Amateur Fuming, No Common Sense 15:26  |  Dyinglikeflies 08/06/07
  38.   Man, this is one bad article 15:30  |  Johnboy 08/06/07
  39.   An Israeli defeat in Sderot 15:31  |  jn 08/06/07
  40.   #24 Don`t bother using logic, Bernie 15:41  |  Johnboy 08/06/07
  41.   Israel Needs Is A Leader Like Netanyahu Get Rid Of Olmert Now 15:45  |  Shepherd 08/06/07
  42.   The sky is falling! 15:49  |  Mark Lincoln 08/06/07
  43.   There can be no victory in a "containment" war 15:53  |  Chaim 08/06/07
  44.   KA- "Israel wants Palestinians to surrender unconditionally" 16:01  |  Sam 08/06/07
  45.   KA - Israel is ready for peace 16:20  |  Ah 08/06/07
  46.   Defeated? 16:27  |  Walter 08/06/07
  47.   Zeev has woken up from his delusions,where he wanted to appease 16:28  |  Absolute Sweden 08/06/07
  48.   CIpora (the singing bird!) 16:34  |  KA 08/06/07
  49.   The price for no cease fire and no peace talks 16:39  |  Tosefta 08/06/07
  50.   Sydney Australia`s Warren 16:45  |  akiva P 08/06/07
  51.   Israel is heading toward failure after failure but who cares 16:47  |  New Generation 08/06/07
  52.   Is Haaretz calling for a new occupation of Gaza strip? 17:00  |  Andre 08/06/07
  53.   Iranian Mullah Junta Orders and Finances the Qassam 17:16  |  HH Sanity 4 Iran 08/06/07
  54.   Second learnt lesson 17:17  |  New Generation 08/06/07
  55.   absolutely right 17:18  |  chaim schonbrun 08/06/07
  56.   Gabe: Speeches and Debates 17:26  |  Ronnie Wolman 08/06/07
  57.   38/Chain, Impossible mission is unachievable 17:38  |  New Generation 08/06/07
  58.   LAST SUMMER, ISRAEL LOST THE WAR IN GAZA, BUT WON THE LEBANON WAR 17:38  |  JAMES 08/06/07
  59.   LAST SUMMER, ISRAEL LOST THE WAR IN GAZA, BUT WON THE LEBANON WAR 17:38  |  JAMES 08/06/07
  60.   Reject the military option 17:45  |  Nick Ferriman 08/06/07
  61.   DONT CALL ME PESIMISTIC 17:46  |  Alfred Brodner 08/06/07
  62.   Another reason to fire Olmert 17:53  |  Polybios 08/06/07
  63.   The price for no cease fire and no peace talks 18:05  |  Tosefta 08/06/07
  64.   Israeli Leadership has Failed 18:06  |  B 08/06/07
  65.   MARIA MARIA MARIA # 9 18:14  |  Alfred Brodner 08/06/07
  66.   #48 nick NONSENSE AND A REFUSAL TO LOOK AT HISTORY OR FACT 18:28  |  paul harris 08/06/07
  67.   #48 nick NONSENSE AND A REFUSAL TO LOOK AT HISTORY OR FACT 18:29  |  paul harris 08/06/07
  68.   All Gazian are waiting for the face to face confrontation 18:32  |  New Generation 08/06/07
  69.   Polemical rubbish 18:52  |  Pilly 08/06/07
  70.   Another Strategy Is Needed 18:55  |  Yosemite 08/06/07
  71.   MARIA, MIREN QUIEN HABLA, DID YOU FORGET THE INQUISITION (#9) 18:56  |  Jorge 08/06/07
  72.   The Govt Reaction Is As That Of A Stranger! 19:00  |  Ben 08/06/07
  73.   #42, KA 19:02  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 08/06/07
  74.   52/Alfred-Maria: Spanish leadership were so wise 19:02  |  New Generation 08/06/07
  75.   42KA.I could not have put it better,but there are 2 developments 19:09  |  lakshmi 08/06/07
  76.   Ronnie Wolman #51 19:09  |  GABE 1 08/06/07
  77.   to New Generation in Gaza 19:20  |  Jasmine Murphy 08/06/07
  78.   Ka ka on a stick #43 19:21  |  GABE1 08/06/07
  79.   #19 Warren, if you realy want to see that Islam 19:38  |  TOMY 08/06/07
  80.   Gabe: Singing in the Rain 19:43  |  Ronnie Wolman 08/06/07
  81.   #75, lakshmi 19:53  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 08/06/07
  82.   A Nation of Appeasers and Boneheads 20:01  |  Tod Zuckerman 08/06/07
  83.   Suggested reading for Paul Harris 20:06  |  christa 08/06/07
  84.   Kind of like Lebanon 20:09  |  Ron 08/06/07
  85.   to #19 Warren 20:15  |  Franco 08/06/07
  86.   #60, polybios, get a decent English 20:17  |  Lili Shi 08/06/07
  87.   #19...Warren 20:20  |  Nemesis 08/06/07
  88.   You Do Not Fire Back Because You Are Afraid Of Killing The Enemy 20:44  |  Efox 08/06/07
  89.   44 Sam,the Arab Initiative is crystal clear,withdraw from all 20:53  |  lakshmi 08/06/07
  90.   I remember an article published in Foreign Affairs 21:18  |  Jacob Blues 08/06/07
  91.   Ronnie Wolman #80 21:22  |  GABE1` 08/06/07
  92.   Sderot residents need to learn courage from Pals 21:36  |  Tim 08/06/07
  93.   71. Jorge 21:56  |  KUTW 08/06/07
  94.   Beat them harder 22:01  |  KUTW 08/06/07
  95.   Sderot 22:03  |  Michael Glaubman 08/06/07
  96.   Gabe,you bring the guitar,Ill bring the machete! 22:39  |  Ronnie Wolman 08/06/07
  97.   Gabe,you bring the guitar,Ill bring the machete! 22:39  |  Ronnie Wolman 08/06/07
  98.   In Israel, Genocide of Arabs is Kosher Talk... 22:42  |  Ibrahim 08/06/07
  99.   Lakshmi- They did not say negotiated settlements of refugees 22:45  |  Sam 08/06/07
  100.   Schiff is right 22:51  |  Gary 08/06/07
  101.   #79 TOMY 22:55  |  Warren 08/06/07
  102.   81Cipora,when you said "some people" who venerate Gandhi,the 23:16  |  lakshmi 08/06/07
  103.   Cease fire in West Bank is a must for progress 23:55  |  Tosefta 08/06/07
  104.   #96, lakshmi 01:28  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 09/06/07
  105.   #89, what Hamas makes crystal clear 01:40  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 09/06/07
  106.   tosefta "the polls show the palestinians love peace" 02:01  |  dickybird 09/06/07
  107.   #96..Lakshmi 02:45  |  Nemesis 09/06/07
  108.   98Cipora,a desperate people will have recourse to desperate 02:56  |  lakshmi 09/06/07
  109.   AP reports Tony Blair as saying on June 8,2007 that Hamas has 03:38  |  lakshmi 09/06/07
  110.   reply to 102 03:44  |  Flawless 09/06/07
  111.   Israel the rocket range 03:46  |  Jason 09/06/07
  112.   (((SDEROT))) Olmert what ya gonna do call Netanyahu))))) 03:59  |  Gary Pineda 09/06/07
  113.   RIGHTIOUSNESS AND FAITH IN THE LIVING G-D &WORD GIVES SECURITY? 04:26  |  Bill. 09/06/07
  114.   Saudi plan for the refugees means negotiations (Sam#98 r Lakshmi) 04:37  |  Tosefta 09/06/07
  115.   #97..Ronnie 04:43  |  Nemesis 09/06/07
  116.   Palestinians On The Way To A Worse Defeat 04:50  |  Yoram 09/06/07
  117.   Mr. Ze`ev Schiff stop trying to provoke more violence. 05:23  |  Timothy 09/06/07
  118.   maria from spain...who are the barbarians 05:59  |  maria 09/06/07
  119.   Israel must do what it must do 06:05  |  Bob 09/06/07
  120.   #Jorge...I`m not the one from Spain. 06:07  |  maria 09/06/07
  121.   Tosefta,#103, wants Israel to be in undefendable position 06:17  |  Voice of Reason 09/06/07
  122.   Hamas defeated Sderot? 06:18  |  Mark 09/06/07
  123.   lakshimi 06:24  |  Gina 09/06/07
  124.   Yoram 06:29  |  Gina 09/06/07
  125.   Cipora Julianna Kohn # 105 06:34  |  Gina 09/06/07
  126.   Ibrahim - and where would Gaza be 06:38  |  Gina 09/06/07
  127.   Khalid 06:54  |  Gina 09/06/07
  128.   How to end the Qassams 07:35  |  David Walker 09/06/07
  129.   Sderot 07:46  |  Miss Sile 09/06/07
  130.   #125, Gina 08:33  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 09/06/07
  131.   Gina 08:39  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 09/06/07
  132.   Morale 09:14  |  Arie 09/06/07
  133.   Forget about it. It won`t work. 09:25  |  Timothy 09/06/07
  134.   Cipora Julianna Kohn 09:44  |  Gina 09/06/07
  135.   Israel has beaten Hamas hands down in every major battle. 10:13  |  Devin Leonard 09/06/07
  136.   #106 dickybird 10:57  |  Ahmad 09/06/07
  137.   How to combat the qassams. 11:03  |  David Nigel Braham 09/06/07
  138.   By every yardstick, Hamas has bettered Israel 11:14  |  Fairplay 09/06/07
  139.   #14 Tamar, Your advice is not only valid for..... 11:33  |  Peter Mall 09/06/07
  140.   Jorge#71 on Maria#9 11:52  |  Peter Mall 09/06/07
  141.   Pete 11:57  |  michael3k 09/06/07
  142.   To all interested readers,I just read that 70% of American jews 14:00  |  lakshmi 09/06/07
  143.   sderot or not sderot 14:24  |  clod 09/06/07
  144.   Ahmad #136 14:55  |  S 09/06/07
  145.   Well, the message is as simple as in the North 15:16  |  Fritz 09/06/07
  146.   lakshmi" 70% of american jews" 15:32  |  cherapunji 09/06/07
  147.   KA Peace?Read what Hamas keeps repeating about peace.-Never 16:12  |  PETER.SM 09/06/07
  148.   Qassems can be stopped by technology or the Arab way 16:21  |  Peter S.M. 09/06/07
  149.   #19 WARREN FROM DOWN UNDER: WHAT MAKES ISLAM DIFFERENT? 17:09  |  MG 09/06/07
  150.   Excellent analysis 17:19  |  Sidney 09/06/07
  151.   Encouragement from Holland 17:57  |  Dik 09/06/07
  152.   149 / Dik from Holland 18:38  |  New Generation 09/06/07
  153.   148 / Peter S.M. Read what you`ve done Since 1919 18:50  |  New Generation 09/06/07
  154.   To Dik in Holland 18:56  |  Leo 09/06/07
  155.   To #150 Wonder of wonders 19:28  |  Clod 09/06/07
  156.   to New Generation in Gaza 20:58  |  Dik 09/06/07
  157.   To Leo 21:09  |  Dik 09/06/07
  158.   Headless Voice of Reason #121 21:48  |  Tosefta 09/06/07
  159.   It was Hamas who declared that they want a ceasefire 00:51  |  Briton 10/06/07
  160.   Schiff was for the disengagement 01:58  |  shaul 10/06/07
  161.   whenb qassams get silenced 02:18  |  peter 10/06/07
  162.   NEW GENERATION.I have read about Arab pogroms going back to 1830 03:50  |  PETER SM 10/06/07
  163.   LAKSHIMI.MAJORITY of Israelis want peace.Hamas was elected with a 03:56  |  PETER SM 10/06/07
  164.   More BS from Tosefta 05:06  |  Sam 10/06/07
  165.   Suicide bombers #96 08:59  |  Dik 10/06/07
  166.   No, Ze`ev Schiff, Israel was defeated by its own warfare 09:51  |  Dutch 10/06/07
  167.   #40 Bernie 18:41  |  * BEN JABO 10/06/07
  168.   #142 lakshmi - easy question for you 06:34  |  * BEN JABO 12/06/07
  169.   #153 New Generation 06:41  |  * BEN JABO 12/06/07
  170.   defeat in Sderot? 01:19  |  Kapplon 30/01/08
  171.   sderot 03:10  |  victor 30/01/08
  172.   Let the people of Sderot fight 04:44  |  Alfred 30/01/08
  173.   Tamar-reverse shoes 06:37  |  Lan 30/01/08
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