The Jewish public is divided over Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's statement that there is no immediate and total way to stop the Qassam fire on Sderot, with a large minority - 42 percent - favoring reoccupying Gaza and staying there to make sure the fire is not resumed, the Peace Index poll has shown.

The survey, carried out from May 28-30, showed that 48 percent oppose such a move. Sixty-three percent (vs. 28 percent), however, support a limited ground operation after which IDF forces would withdraw. The public is almost evenly divided between 47 percent who support holding direct negotiations with Hamas on stopping the rocket fire on Sderot, and 48 percent who oppose such negotiations.

The poll determined that only 37 percent of the Jewish public is currently convinced by Olmert's claim that there is no immediate and total way to stop the Qassam fire; 53.5 percent think he is mistaken. Indeed, 46 percent ascribe the leadership's avoidance of launching a military operation in Gaza to the conclusions of the Winograd Committee's interim report (vs. 39 percent who do not believe this is the reason).

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In addition, the public believes that the conclusions of the Winograd Committee's interim report are deterring the government from launching a military operation in the Gaza Strip. Indeed, although a majority of the public opposes it, a small minority favors reoccupying Gaza and leaving Israel Defense Forces troops there to keep things quiet.

A majority, however, supports a more limited ground operation in the Strip after which IDF forces would leave again. The public is evenly divided on the issue of direct political negotiations with Hamas on halting the Qassam rocket fire. However, an overwhelming majority opposes responding positively to Hamas' offer to stop the Qassam fire in return for halting Israel's security operations in the West Bank, including arrests and strikes on the organization's activists.

Interestingly, while a clear majority of the public thinks the government should invest more in reinforcing homes and public institutions in Sderot and its environs, only a small minority says it should concentrate on creating alternative housing for residents of the areas outside the Qassams' range.

Whereas only a small minority trusts the current political leadership to eventually find the right solution to the security problem posed by the Qassams, a clear majority trusts the current IDF command to do so. Further evidence of the lack of trust in the political system is shown by the fact that only about half the public is certain that, if elections are held soon, they will bother to vote. The rest are vacillating, or declare that they will decline to cast a ballot.

Those are the main findings of the Peace Index [Note that there is a link between overall readiness for negotiations with the Palestinian Authority and readiness for direct talks with Hamas about the Qassams]:

Among those who generally support negotiations, 63 percent also favor direct contacts with Hamas on the rocket fire and only 33 percent are opposed to such talks. But among those who generally oppose contacts with the Palestinian Authority, only 18 percent favor negotiating with Hamas, compared with a majority of 56 percent who are opposed.

In any case, an overwhelming majority of 76 percent of the Jewish public believes Israel should not respond positively to Hamas' offer about ceasing IDF arrests of and strikes on its members in the West Bank in return for promises to stop the Qassam fire.

As noted, the Jewish public is not in favor of evacuating residents from the areas under attack. A majority of 52 percent thinks the government should mainly invest in reinforcing homes and public institutions in Sderot, and only 14 percent say it should focus on finding housing and employment outside the Qassams' range.

The Arab public's positions on these issues are completely different. A clear majority (77 percent) opposes both a reconquest of Gaza and a limited Israeli military operation to stop the Qassam fire (71 percent). A definite majority (71 percent), however, believes Israel should negotiate with Hamas on stopping the rockets and should respond positively to its offer to link ending Israeli security actions against its members in the West Bank with ending the Qassam fire on Sderot (63 percent).

In this context, a majority of the Arab public also believes Olmert is wrong when he claims there is no immediate way to stop the Qassams. Compared with the Jewish public, a higher rate thinks the government should focus on alternative housing and employment for those in Sderot and its surroundings (39 percent), and fewer say it should concentrate on reinforcing homes and public institutions (28 percent).

This survey, too, reveals profound distrust in the political leadership, especially compared with the considerable trust in the military leadership. No less than 80 percent (vs. only 15 percent) say they do not trust the current political leadership to deal appropriately with the security problem posed by the Qassams, whereas 66 percent trust the current IDF command to do so (23 percent do not trust the military leadership).

The extent of alienation from the political leadership also emerges in the distribution of the answers to the question: "If new elections were held soon, would you be: sure that you would vote - 55 percent; I think I would vote - 16 percent; I do not think I would vote - 9.6 percent; I am sure I would not vote - 12.5 percent." (The rest did not know.) In other words, only slightly over half the respondents are sure they would fulfill their civic duty and head for the booths.

The peace indexes for this month were:

Oslo Index: 33.7 (Jewish sample: 30.1)

Negotiation Index: 45.7 (Jewish sample: 41.9)

The Peace Index Project is conducted at the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research and the Evens Program in Mediation and Conflict Resolution of Tel Aviv University, headed by Prof. Ephraim Yaar and Prof. Tamar Hermann. The telephone interviews were conducted by the B.I. Cohen Institute of Tel Aviv University on 28-30.5.2007, and included 613 interviewees who represent the adult Jewish and Arab population of Israel (including the territories and the kibbutzim). The sampling error for a sample of this size is 4.5%.