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Last update - 15:10 11/05/2008 What To Read Tags: Rosner's Domain  News, Opinions, Reports and Numbers 5.11.2008 Gaza is not occupied by Israel If you did not have time to read the WPost Saturday, you missed this interesting article by David Rivkin and Lee Casey: Advertisement Israel, however, is not an occupying power, judging by traditional international legal tests. Although such tests have been articulated in various ways over time, they all boil down to this question: Does a state exercise effective governmental authority -- if only on a de facto basis -- over the territory? As early as 1899, the Hague Convention on the Laws and Customs of War on Land stated that "[t]erritory is considered occupied when it is actually placed under the authority of the hostile army. The occupation applies only to the territory where such authority is established, and in a position to assert itself." Is it good for Obama to be popular abroad? A couple of weeks ago I wrote in Slate an article asking Does international enthusiasm for Obama hurt him? If Americans expect world opinion to become pro-American if Obama wins, they will be disappointed. Opinion polls, especially in Europe, proved way before 9/11 that the world has a low opinion of America's culture and values and that frustration with its world domination is a cause for hostility. If, on the other hand, Americans perceive Obama as someone who will act to appease world opinion, they might become angry. I found some signs that the debate over Obama abroad is picking up, following the exchange between him and McCain regarding the support he gets from Hamas. Daniel Larison thinks that: I have never understood the enthusiasm of Obama boosters to stress his background and biography as selling points or talk about how enthusiastically Muslims around the world will respond to his election. You begin to see how this sort of thing backfires on Obama when McCain or his supporters can say, accurately if rather demagogically, that Hamas wants Obama to win - there's some enthusiasm from overseas that Obama could do without. This is why there should never have been an emphasis on whether or how many foreign nations would cheer an Obama win - there may be nations whose endorsement that might be politically damaging that you don't want, but once you go down the road of touting popularity abroad you take on the undesirable supporters with the rest. Andrew Sullivan finds it depressing: If Obama's biography and appeal affect global opinion and therefore foreign policy, the subject should be on the table - as a weapon in pursuit of national self-interest. If we cannot have a debate in a democracy about this impact without fostering xenophobia, ignorance and fear, then democracy cannot work. 5.10.2008 Rob Malley will not advise Obama He is not an advisor now, reported the Times: Robert Malley told The Times that he had been in regular contact with Hamas, which controls Gaza and is listed by the US State Department as a terrorist organisation. Such talks, he stressed, were related to his work for a conflict resolution think-tank and had no connection with his position on Mr Obama's Middle East advisory council. "I've never hidden the fact that in my job with the International Crisis Group I meet all kinds of people," he added. Ben LaBolt, a spokesman for Mr Obama, responded swiftly: "Rob Malley has, like hundreds of other experts, provided informal advice to the campaign in the past. He has no formal role in the campaign and he will not play any role in the future.? The rapid departure of Mr Malley followed 48 hours of heated clashes between John McCain, the Republican nominee-elect, and Mr Obama over Middle East policy. And here you can see Obama speaking about 60 to Israel. He was a guest at the Washington Embassy reception. Fighting Iran What are we going to do about Iran? Here is one option - start in Iraq: In the time remaining to it, the Bush administration should do all it can to reinforce this Shiite dissent and outrage. The surge aside, it is the most effective vehicle for checking Iran in Iraq and stabilizing Iraqi politics. The U.S. government should broadcast as loudly as possible any and all information showing Tehran's complicity in the death of Iraqi Shiites. If the United States can again arrest members of the Revolutionary Guards Corps inside Iraq, it should do so, interrogate them rigorously, and make the information public. The tide may have turned for good against Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, with potentially huge ramifications for hearts and minds throughout the Sunni Arab world. The clerics in Tehran could be dealt out of the inner circles of Iraqi Shia politics. With continued progress in Iraq, the next administration would be in a position to turn its full attention to thwarting Iran elsewhere in the region--and to preventing the mullahs from acquiring nuclear weapons. 5.8.2008 Who's pushing the US to war with Iran Here's David Ignatius' authoritative column: The risk of a U.S.-Iranian confrontation is growing in part because Saudi Arabia and other U.S. allies in the Middle East are so eager for it. "Behind closed doors, we are praying that the Iranians will make a mistake so that you will have a reason to attack," one Saudi told me this week. Another prominent Arab official said he hopes the U.S. will strike Iranian training camps just over the border from Iraq. Obama on Independence Day Does Obama have a problem with Jewish voters? My take of a new poll is here. Whether you agree or not, you can not blame him for not making an effort. Here is Obama on Israel's Independence Day: While threats to its existence have endured, Israelis have built their nation into a strong, vibrant democracy, with a prosperous economy, a rich cultural life, and a deep friendship with the United States that benefits both our peoples in so many ways. Even in hard times, Israelis have so much to be proud of. As the Jewish State continues to grow and prosper, the United States will always stand with Israel to ensure it can defend itself against threat of terrorism and violence, from as close as Gaza and as far as Tehran. We must never waver in our unshakeable commitment help Israel achieve its goal of true security through lasting peace with its neighbors. And here is S.V. Dáte of TNR on Obama and the Jews. Jewish voters made up three percent of the national electorate in 2004, with their numbers concentrated in a handful of states where they constitute significant voting blocs. The states that have the highest Jewish populations, however, also tend to be reliably Democratic. Which means that even if McCain and the Republicans could somehow pry away most of the Jewish vote in New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and California (or if a lot of Jews were to decide to sit this election out), it's likely that those states would nevertheless deliver their electoral votes to an Obama ticket. And most swing states, such as Ohio and Missouri, have too few Jewish voters to make much of a difference either way. Which, naturally enough, brings it all back to Florida. Olmert, where to find the news While Israeli media can not say much about the legal issues involving Prime Minister Olmert, one can read a lot in other places: Here is The Forward. The New York Jewish Week. The New York Sun. 7.5.2008 So much to read, so little time. Israel's birthday Here is Richard Holbrooke in the Post: Israel was going to come into existence whether or not Washington recognized it. But without American support from the very beginning, Israel's survival would have been at even greater risk. Even if European Jewry had not just emerged from the horrors of World War II, it would have been an unthinkable act of abandonment by the United States. Truman's decision, although opposed by almost the entire foreign policy establishment, was the right one -- and despite complicated consequences that continue to this day, it is a decision all Americans should recognize and admire. How Should We Pray for Israel on Her 60th Anniversary? Ari Kelman has an answer: As you might expect, the contents of the prayer differ from prayerbook to prayerbook. Each of the four major American denominations has its own version of the prayer, and organizations and publications like Rabbis for Human Rights and Tikkun magazine have penned and published their own versions of the prayer to suit each of their respective relationships with Israel. Some might be considered revisions; others are totally new creations. What Muslims really think? Rob Satloff discusses polling in the Arab world, and the book Who Speaks for Islam? What a Billion Muslims Really Think Evidently, he does not think this is a valuable book: More than half the book is an effort to distinguish the 7 percent of extremist Muslims from the "9 out of 10," as they say, who are moderates and then to focus our collective efforts on reaching out to the fringe element. With remarkable exactitude, they argue: "If the 7 percent (91 million) of the politically radicalized continue to feel politically dominated, occupied and disrespected, the West will have little, if any, chance of changing their minds." There is no need to worry about the 93 percent because, as Esposito and Mogahed have already argued, they are just like us. And then there is the more fundamental fraud of using the 9/11 question as the measure of "who is a radical." Amazing as it sounds, according to Esposito and Mogahed, the proper term for a Muslim who hates America, wants to impose Sharia law, supports suicide bombing, and opposes equal rights for women but does not "completely" justify 9/11 is... "moderate." Bar Mitzva mania Ruth Marcus has a funny Bat Mitzva story to tell in the Post. I know what she is talking about, since my Bar Mitzva, some 27 years ago, was on the same Shabbat. Emma chanted beautifully, from a portion that the ancient rabbis said contains the essence of the Torah: Love your neighbor as yourself. To the attention of Marcus' daughter: It also contains: respect your parents. Sexism interferes with the war on terror Will Saletan of Slate keeps writing about the science of understanding suicide bombers. In his most recent post he writes about the fact that "Many of the people blowing themselves up are women": This is one of the lessons terrorism will gradually teach us: Stereotyping is an exploitable security weakness. To overcome it, we'll have to overcome our sexism about women in the military and in law enforcement, as well as our sexism about women in crime and terrorism. If the moral faults of such stereotypes aren't enough to make you push them aside, do it for your country. 5.6.2008 Why progressives don't like Israel Media outlets across the country are looking for ways to celebrate Israel's 60 with articles and news features. This one is from the WSJ: For reasons both telling and mysterious, Israel has become unpopular among that segment of public opinion that calls itself progressive. This is the same progressive segment that believes in women's rights, gay rights, the rights to a fair trial and to appeal, freedom of speech and conscience, judicial checks on parliamentary authority. These are rights that exist in Israel and nowhere else in the Middle East. So why is it that the country that is most sympathetic to progressive values gets the least of progressive sympathies? NYP: new details about the Olmert probe The Israeli press can not reveal the detailed story of the new Olmert legal affair. However, the New York Post is reporting about it. And, of course, I can not say if this is accurate or not. 5.5.2008 How people die in Gaza? Noah Pollak of Commentary was recommending the other day Yaacov Lazowick's blog. Since Lazowick was my school's history teacher some 25 years ago (he was a great teacher), but also because the blog is an interesting one, I will add my recommendation. Lazowick writes here about mistakes made by foreign reporters covering Gaza. Here is one paragraph, dealing with the incident in which "A Palestinian mother and her four young children were killed in northern Gaza": Faced with five dead innocents, does it really matter [exactly how they had died]? Well, yes, it does. Which is why many news outlets are more sparing with the attempt to tell the truth, and more eager to let you know which side you're expected to side with. And another one: The [British] Guardian, ever reliable if you like anti-Israeli reportage, waited a day before posting a report, so they had time to gather information and think it through. Their report has 10 paragraphs; the Israeli version appears in paragraph 9. I think you got the idea. 5.4.2008 Helping McCain win over Jewish voters In the National Journal, Richard Cohen explores the ways with which Rep. Eric Cantor is emerging as his chamber's most outspoken and active supporter of Sen. John McCain's presidential campaign. "The only Jewish Republican in the House, Cantor has assumed a pivotal role in helping the McCain campaign build support - and raise money - in the Jewish community. And Cantor quite likely has his sights set even higher". Here is some more: In the interview with NJ, Cantor said that the controversy over Carter's trip - combined with the call by Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., in his presidential campaign for direct talks with all interests in the Middle East - underscores McCain's support for Israel and his appeal to Jewish voters in the November election. Underestimating Syria and Iran Leonard S. Spector and Avner Cohen have an interesting article in the LAT, in which they blame the US intelligence community for "dangerously underestimating Syria and Iran". This is the argument they are making: The key problem has been the intelligence community's astonishing awkwardness in making clear what's a fact and what's an inference. In the case of Iraq, there were few facts on which to build a convincing case that Saddam Hussein was arming himself with weapons of mass destruction. But Hussein's past pursuit of them, coupled with the anxieties unleashed by 9/11, led U.S. intelligence analysts and many policymakers to infer the worst and leap to conclusions unsupported by the facts. The intelligence community has now jumped to the opposite extreme with respect to Iran's and Syria's nuclear ambitions, where there are more than a few facts. Yet it has virtually refused to draw any conclusions, no matter how obvious, about the two countries' nuclear programs. The effect has been to seriously understate the dangers Iran and Syria pose and to distort the policy options available to the U.S. to manage them. US umbrella against Iran? Glenn Kessler of the WPost wrote a simple but necessary piece, as he was asking experts to explain the new Hillary Clinton doctrine on Iran. Clinton, in the past couple of weeks, was offering to extend U.S. nuclear protection to friendly Arab nations against Iran's nuclear ambitions and asserting that if Tehran considers attacking Israel, "we would be able to totally obliterate them." Kessler writes: Some analysts have praised her proposal as a bold initiative, but it has also attracted concerns about its feasibility and whether it would tie the hands of a future president. Here is Martin Indyk, of the Clinton camp, saying: that Arab states would probably need to promise to recognize Israel for such a treaty to win congressional approval. And Jon B. Alterman, a Middle East specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, calling this: "a lose-lose-lose proposition. I don't think it changes Iranian thinking. I don't think it changes Arab thinking. And it obligates the United States and puts U.S. decision making in a corner without any appreciable benefit. 5.2.2008 Jewish ad for Obama Ben Smith reports that Jewish supporters of Obama are raising money for an ad in the NYT: The need for such an ad is a mark of Obama's continuing struggle to secure the allegiance of Jewish voters - typically a solidly Democratic group - in the face of often inchoate concerns, urban legends and viral e-mails that he's worked hard to rebut. Should Israel remain Jewish? It is a provocative question with an interesting answer. I guess another one in a series of such questions that will be asked in the coming weeks, prior to the 60th anniversary celebration (another such question was Is Israel finished?). Anyway, should Israel remain a Jewish State, asks Amitai Etzioni, professor of sociology at the George Washington University. His answer is yes, and his reasoning solid. Here is one paragraph from the end of the article: The crucial sociological observation is that societies are complex beings that serve multiple needs and values, and cannot be designed to maximise any single concern without severely undermining others. One cannot go the whole hog in the service of the sensibilities of various minorities without undermining the essential national sense of community. Trying to either fully assimilate minorities by eradicating their separate cultures, or to wash out the national ethos by eradicating the shared culture, will only heighten conflicts and tensions. Will Obama unite blacks-Jews? If you want to know more about The Conversions of Anthony Lake (moving from Clinton to Obama AND becoming Jewish), Moment Mag is the place to go. I was drawn to a paragraph in which Lake promises something that I think no liberal Jew can ignore: Says Lake: "You could argue that a president who is African-American but who shares so many of the views of the Jewish community - both about civil liberties and about the security of Israel - could help bring us together." 5.1.2008 McCain the Neocon The web is buzzing with predictions about the future foreign policy of a President McCain. Jacob Heilbrunn see only neocons: while Henry Kissinger, Brent Scowcroft, and other realist elders are consulted by McCain, his heart is with the younger neocons, the "beavers," in the words of one McCain supporter, who draft the speeches and get the grunt work done. Matthew Yglesias, no friend of the neocons (or McCain), has an interesting, if not exactly balanced, article in The American Prospect about the man he tags: "the most hawkish neocon on the horizon". The neocons' first choice may have lost the primary in 2000, but through Bush we've had the opportunity to observe seven years of neoconservative high drama and higher causes, and most people don't like it very much. Most, that is, except for McCain, who gives every indication of wanting to shift neoconservatism into higher gear. He is the foremost proponent of an imperial conception of America's role in the world since Teddy Roosevelt, the most persuasive advocate of "national greatness" in practical politics, and the most loyal adherent of neoconservative ideas in Congress. And possibly the next president of the United States. Bookmark to del.icio.us   A top priority Barack Obama: We will keep Israel's security a priority. Tale of a key Cartoon film on Nakba describes Jews as 'enemies of homeland'.   1.   (iran) LIER ROSNER EXPOSES TRUTH ABOUT REAL HAARETZ 19:47  |  jackal 18/01/08   2.   no.126...BOB 01:12  |  Raad 19/01/08   3.   no. 126....Bob (2) 01:23  |  Raad 19/01/08   4.   Ali Khamenei 19:44  |  Jean-Paul DOGUET 19/01/08   5.   #137,who is the Boss? 06:23  |  Michael 20/01/08   6.   cultist Iranian leaders 09:43  |  amazed american 20/01/08   7.   Raad #118 12:45  |  bbl 20/01/08   8.   Sigler 16:33  |  JK 20/01/08   9.   Propaganda works wonders Meadow Soprano 20:28  |  The Other Alan 20/01/08   10.   I protest, because everybody unemployed in Gaza, but gravediggers 06:50  |  Yaakov Sullivan 21/01/08   11.   About Obama 10:45  |  Colin Wright 21/01/08   12.   #38pablo as usual looking in wrong direction 14:03  |  v hardman 21/01/08   13.   This Obama nitpicking is getting asinine 19:01  |  Richter 21/01/08   14.   A vote for Clinton is a vote for Obama as VP=Obama was raised 21:56  |  RADICAL MUSLIM 21/01/08   15.   Obama, Brzezinski and other anti-Israel ties 00:25  |  RSK 22/01/08   16.   brod..........I agree!!! 01:11  |  maria 22/01/08   17.   petra....are you really a christian? 01:14  |  maria 22/01/08   18.   you`re right about that,leah.... 01:18  |  maria 22/01/08   19.   steve from minneapolis...and now who`s talking! 01:21  |  maria 22/01/08   20.   Leak of confidential AJC memo 04:15  |  Smolanit 22/01/08   21.   Why I`m not Voting for Obama 14:07  |  Susan 22/01/08   22.   Obama will destabilize Africa and Islamic world 14:17  |  Ex South African Rav 22/01/08   23.   Maria are you a Jew, a democrat? 15:18  |  Petra 22/01/08   24.   OBAMA IN THE WHITE HOUSE, WHAT A PROSPECT 16:01  |  indrajaya 22/01/08   25.   Just for the record 19:11  |  Norm 22/01/08   26.   Just when I thought I heard it all. . . . 19:23  |  MichaelF 22/01/08   27.   Huckabee is PANDERING 19:50  |  Mark of Lewiston 22/01/08   28.   2=2=4 should not be amended. all other or 23:45  |  bozhidar balkas 22/01/08   29.   Please go back to school! 00:08  |  No more warmongering 23/01/08   30.   SORRY indrajaya, THE WORD IS OUT ON THAT GUY 05:56  |  NO CHANCE 23/01/08   31.   Majority of American`s prefer Constitution to reflect Bible. 06:26  |  Virginia 23/01/08   32.   Podhoretz being a dangerous idiot. 11:28  |  Colin Wright 23/01/08   33.   only the strong and flexible survive and prosper! 12:44  |  a wandering Jew 23/01/08   34.   Susan #132 - Obama meeting Iranian leader 15:50  |  Smolanit 23/01/08   35.   Voight 17:42  |  Steve 23/01/08   36.   Giuliani still #1 among panel, but... 18:54  |  Galuteus Maximus 23/01/08   37.   To Virginia 19:28  |  MichaelF 23/01/08   38.   Obama`s letter 19:32  |  MichaelF 23/01/08   39.   rudolf 9iu11ani will drag Israel into a war Israel cannot stop 19:36  |  Pablo B 23/01/08   40.   Rosner`s Mysterious Affinity for Obama 19:37  |  Tod Zuckerman 23/01/08   41.   Tod #152 - What are you smoking??? 21:02  |  Galuteus Maximus 23/01/08   42.   Jon Voight knows the mantra. 21:59  |  Colin Wright 23/01/08   43.   To Virginia: US not a theocracy 22:04  |  LisaV 23/01/08   44.   Iranian elections are fraudulent (reply to Smolanit 146) 22:08  |  Honest 23/01/08   45.   petra....I`m not a jew ....I`m voting for huckabee!! 22:08  |  maria 23/01/08   46.   To Honest #156 - all elections are vetted 22:55  |  Smolanit 23/01/08   47.   Reply to #154 ( Galuteus) 00:50  |  Tod Zuckerman 24/01/08   48.   Hey Jon the movie`s over 01:22  |  root 4 MCaine 24/01/08   49.   Angelina Joline was right to disown this Voight freak 01:33  |  Joe 24/01/08   50.   OBAMA`S PANDERING 03:57  |  JH 24/01/08   51.   lisa v from boston....you and your family came to america 16:24  |  maria 24/01/08   52.   michael if... are you one of those who outnumbered 16:30  |  maria 24/01/08   53.   Maria - US not a Christian nation 22:18  |  LisaV 24/01/08   54.   No Substantive Difference 22:58  |  Mark of Lewiston 24/01/08   55.   no wonder Angelina won`t talk to her father 23:37  |  chris 24/01/08   56.   it may not be....lisa v.....but the usa has more christians 23:53