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Preventing the Third Lebanon War
By Akiva Eldar

Late last week, following the publication of the State Comptroller's report on the Israel Investments Center, Ehud Olmert declared that he had lost his confidence in retired judge Micha Lindenstrauss. The prime minister asked the public to ignore the findings of the comptroller regarding suspicions of corruption against him. What will the prime minister say today, following the publication of the interim report of the committee probing the failures of the Second Lebanon War? Will he say that he has lost his faith in retired judge, Dr. Eliyahu Winograd, and the professors and generals serving on the committee? Were Olmert not a petty politician, he would go home today and save us the protest rallies and the interviews with Motti Ashkenazi.

Even if every Kadima MK sides with him, Olmert has to go. Even if Labor bites the bullet on the matter of the Winograd report, and along with Yisrael Beiteinu they decide to commit political suicide, Olmert must not remain in the Prime Minister's Office. He has lost the trust of the public, without which no leader in a democracy can fulfill his role. This is even more true for a leader who has to make decisions concerning life-and-death issues. With a 3-percent approval rating even before the report was published, it is impossible to lead soldiers to war. With a party and a coalition that do not represent the wishes of their constituents, it is not possible to pull Israel out of the territories in return for peace with the members of the Arab League.

Olmert needs to go, in spite the fact that his poor conduct during the confrontation in the North was not any worse than that of other prime ministers: The Second Lebanon War lasted five weeks and cost 163 Israel lives. By comparison, the first Lebanon war, under Menachem Begin, ended after 18 years and 1,216 deaths. Ehud Barak escaped the "wild south" without a UN Security Council resolution to deploy the Lebanese Army there, accompanied by international peacekeepers. Ariel Sharon turned a blind eye for five years to the arming of Hezbollah with missiles capable of threatening Haifa and Hadera. If an investigative committee were appointed to probe the conduct of Israeli governments during the intifada, in which more than 1,100 Israelis lost their lives in six and a half years - Olmert would not have been the most prominent figure mentioned in the report.

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The shortcomings that emerged during the first and second wars in Lebanon, and the period between them, are frighteningly similar to the failures of the Yom Kippur War. The decision-making process in relation to the peace "signals" and the threats of war, on the part of Syria, and the policy with respect to the Arab peace initiative, highlight what Prof. Yehezkel Dror, a member of the Winograd Committee, wrote in his new book: "The principle of long-term vision contravenes to a great extent the culture of governance in Israel, which in most areas tends to think one step, or at most two steps ahead. Other countries also invest a lot more thought in planning the first stages of a process than the final stage."

A short while after he had the chance to assess firsthand that the political leadership did not learn a thing from the wars of the past, the Israel Prize laureate in political science wrote that "the war is full of historical and current examples of blatant failures stemming from this. However, Israel cannot allow itself such stupidity. Limited thinking, one or two steps ahead, is a very serious mistake. Grand strategy needs to be thought of in terms of historical processes that continue into the distant future ... and a focus on time frames of five to 25 years."

We should be reminded that the central role of the Winograd Committee, like the Agranat Commission of inquiry into the failures of the Yom Kippur War, or the Or Commission investigation of the events of October 2000, is first and foremost to prevent the recurrence of failures and problems that existed in the previous confrontation. The unfortunate habit of the public to focus on the individual leaders who failed instead of dealing with the substance of the issue distracts the focus from the genuinely important findings and the substantive recommendations of the commissions of inquiry.

One can hope that, by going home, Olmert will bequeath to the Winograd Committee report a longer and better life than the dead reports that preceded it. This will be his modest contribution to preventing the Third Lebanon War.

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  1.   2% APPROVAL, STILL CAPABLE TO THREAT 09:29  |  indrajaya 30/04/07
  2.   don`t oust olmert 09:31  |  gabriela 30/04/07
  3.   Eldar - Still Believes Arafat Was a Partner for Peace 09:43  |  Tod Zuckerman 30/04/07
  4.   WHY not ask the Lebanese if they want to kill all Jews&"liberate- 09:43  |  PETER SM 30/04/07
  5.   interesting; the far right and far left agree Olmert Club MUST GO 10:23  |  Pavel 30/04/07
  6.   Eldar against Olmert is a plus for Olmert 10:44  |  Absolute Sweden 30/04/07
  7.   Indra 11:06  |  Realistic 30/04/07
  8.   To Absolute Sweden No. 6 11:14  |  Natan 30/04/07
  9.   Please let Olmert stay in office 11:35  |  Abs 30/04/07
  10.   Who has to be prevented by whom....?? 11:40  |  Swiss (Dino) 30/04/07
  11.   Israel`s Basic Security rises above debating Final Settlement... 11:55  |  Pavel 30/04/07
  12.   # 7, REALISTIC 12:11  |  indrajaya 30/04/07
  13.   #4 (Peter SM) 12:21  |  Wissam 30/04/07
  14.   Litany of Failed Policies: All Supported by Haaretz 12:50  |  Ovadiah ben Avraham 30/04/07
  15.   not Olmert`s fault, decision was already made 12:54  |  mehmet 30/04/07
  16.   Kahane`s "vision" 12:56  |  mehmet 30/04/07
  17.   1st Lebanon War Ended With Eviction of Arafat to Tunis 12:59  |  Ovadiah ben Avraham 30/04/07
  18.   Dino #10 13:01  |  S 30/04/07
  19.   # 18 S A good memory is the privilege of the young.... 13:29  |  Swiss (Dino) 30/04/07
  20.   Take Politics out of IDF 13:36  |  Yoram 30/04/07
  21.   Mehmet, how many Armenians you kill in WW1 13:47  |  Ken Jurist 30/04/07
  22.   Now that Eldar is against Olmert. I support Olmert 13:52  |  David Stoler 30/04/07
  23.   Must go yes, but not for Leb.war 14:31  |  Mary 30/04/07
  24.   Broadband Internet Hawks 15:41  |  Garba Maigoro 30/04/07
  25.   David Stoler,Amira Hass got money from Israel-hating 15:48  |  Absolute Sweden 30/04/07
  26.   To22/ David Stoller 15:51  |  Anne 30/04/07
  27.   Dino #19 16:24  |  S 30/04/07
  28.   # 27 S Weak performance of yours !!! 17:55  |  Swiss (Dino) 30/04/07
  29.   The psychological aspect 19:45  |  Fortuna Benmayor 30/04/07
  30.   OOPS! 20:17  |  Blogowitz 30/04/07
  31.   Should Mr Olmert GO? 20:27  |  Bader S Abu-Ghosh 30/04/07
  32.   Fortuna,on Never Again 20:46  |  Ronnie Wolman 30/04/07
  33.   Should Mr Olmert Go? 21:05  |  Bader S Abu-Ghosh 30/04/07
  34.   If Olmert quit then no more biweekly Jdate with Abbas 21:10  |  Joseph E . 30/04/07
  35.   CAN OLMERT BE IMPEACHED? 21:39  |  jack 30/04/07
  36.   Who`ll be the next PM who`ll ditch the Zionism movement 21:58  |  Joseph E . 30/04/07
  37.   Coming war 22:02  |  Paul 30/04/07
  38.   Swiss(Dino) 22:50  |  ODP 30/04/07
  39.   Preventing the Third Lebanon War 23:49  |  Bruce Mazer 30/04/07
  40.   to 10 -Swiss Dino - Measured response... 00:00  |  Nicolas from Paris 01/05/07
  41.   Is it true ? 25 00:36  |  Ralph 01/05/07
  42.   Ken Jurist 01:15  |  Mark Lincoln 01/05/07
  43.   When Olmert and Bush met to plan the wars of 2007 01:18  |  Mark Lincoln 01/05/07
  44.   @ 16 Mehmet, didn´t see you in the streets... 01:27  |  Karl 01/05/07
  45.   It`s so much more than Olmert staying or leaving 01:36  |  Fortuna Benmayor 01/05/07
  46.   Olmert the Dictator 01:43  |  Fred Goepfert 01/05/07
  47.   Mehmet--Israel is in for a rude awakening!! 01:46  |  tad 01/05/07
  48.   Answer to #35 -- No. 02:03  |  idf_sergeant 01/05/07
  49.   Arab Peace Plan The Only Way to Prevent Third Lebanon War 03:00  |  Fred Farkelsteinman 01/05/07
  50.   Foruna,then the streets will be filled.... 03:05  |  Ronnie Wolman 01/05/07
  51.   mark lincoln 03:11  |  larry from maine 01/05/07
  52.   tyical diaspora zionist 05:02  |  ephraim 01/05/07
  53.   # 48 Ronnie, precisely because 98 % is dissatisfied 05:22  |  Fortuna Benmayor 01/05/07
  54.   Larry of Maine 05:37  |  Larry 01/05/07
  55.   Bader Abu Gosh 05:42  |  larry 01/05/07
  56.   Mark Lincoln and the DC Madam 06:39  |  Phinias Whoppy 01/05/07
  57.   responsible 06:47  |  rose 01/05/07
  58.   Leave me do my job ! 06:59  |  Abu Olmert Al-Whimpy 01/05/07
  59.   #48 idf 08:06  |  jack 01/05/07
  60.   The way of progress ... 08:26  |  Dutch 01/05/07
  61.   Dino #28 08:36  |  S 01/05/07
  62.   Dino again 08:40  |  S 01/05/07
  63.   # 38 ODP 08:51  |  Swiss (Dino) 01/05/07
  64.   # 40 Nicolas from Paris 08:55  |  Swiss (Dino) 01/05/07
  65.   Even if Olmert resignes 09:31  |  Yonatan 01/05/07
  66.   #14 Wissam - I can use quotation marks too 09:40  |  Yonatan 01/05/07
  67.   To Larry (# 55) 09:41  |  Bader S Abu-Ghosh 01/05/07
  68.   # 49 Fred Farkesteinman , An excellent post! 09:46  |  Dutch 01/05/07
  69.   # 61 / 62 S 10:38  |  Swiss (Dino) 01/05/07
  70.   43MARK LINCOLN,gang awry . . . no question this is the latest 16:47  |  Alan 01/05/07
  71.   Another round of deception to cover the stonewalling and stalling 16:53  |  lakshmi 01/05/07
  72.   # 65 Yonatan Re: Living in a dream 07:48  |  Dutch 02/05/07
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Yossi Sarid: Throw out Ehud Olmert and Amir Peretz and save Israel
Responses: 120
Ari Shavit: Olmert doesn't even have the integrity to resign
Responses: 77
Hezbollah: Winograd report is proof we were victorious
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Ex-CIA chief: U.S. must revive Israel-PA peace process
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09:02 Kadima kingpin Yitzhaki publicly urges PM to quit
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05:55 Haaretz poll: 40% want elections, 68% say Olmert should resign
06:06 Winograd report lauds Foreign Ministry's diplomatic role in war
23:56 Lipkin-Shahak agrees to head panel on implementing Winograd recommendations
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