There has been some progress in the Egyptian-mediated negotiations over the release of kidnapped Israel Defense Forces soldier Gilad Shalit. However, he is not expected to be freed before an agreement is reached on the list of Palestinian prisoners held in Israel who are to be released in an exchange. This issue is a major obstacle to the conclusion of the negotiations.

On several occasions, reports have announced Shalit's imminent release. Most of these reports originated with Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas or with the Egyptians. They were overly optimistic. It is obvious that Abbas has no relevant information about Shalit, and that his ability to influence the negotiations is nearly nonexistent.

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The Egyptians, including the heads of their intelligence agencies, have promised on more than once occasion that Shalit would be released in two or three weeks. These promises, too, have remained unfulfilled. The Egyptians continue their mediation efforts. The talks have progressed but they are far from over.

The disagreement concerns the groups of Palestinian prisoners and detainees who would be freed for Shalit and their total number, as well as the stages and location of their release.

The list of names is considered the most problematic; disagreement over it threatens the future of the negotiations. The first stages of the release will begin with the transfer of Shalit from the Gaza Strip to Egypt.

After this is accomplished, Israel will release the first group of Palestinian prisoners. This will be followed by Shalit's transfer to Israel. Discussions are focusing now on the possibility of additional stages in the exchange.

Egyptian officials say that Hamas' attitude on the issue has recently changed for the better, due to the organization's desire to reach an understanding with European states over lifting the blockade of Gaza and establishing full relations with the Palestinian unity government. European representatives announced that unless Hamas takes a positive step, which must be expressed first of all in Shalit's release, there is no chance for a thaw in the European position.

If that is true, then the likelihood for progress in the negotiations toward Shalit's release has increased. It should be remembered that, in addition to Shalit, Palestinian groups have been holding a BBC journalist for several weeks.

On this matter, too, Abbas is impotent to act. The Gaza Strip is controlled neither by Abbas and his security organizations, nor by the Palestinian unity government. In effect, no one has complete control over the various gangs there.