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The Olmert paradox
By Gideon Samet

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert afforded us useful insight during the holiday. For $2,500 a month, he said, he could turn the talkback balance to his favor. Olmert told the news site Ynet that a "professional group" offered their services to him, but that he had refused because he did not want to pay people to write good things about him.

Truth be told, it's not in his best interest. At least not according to the Olmert paradox, that states that his weakness is his main source of strength now. There is no urgency attached to toppling a failed prime minister. Many Israelis no longer concern themselves with their elected prime minister, already since before the Winograd Committee Report. It could decide the issue for them.

Olmert was joking about the talkback service, although it is available. He was commenting on a question concerning the talkback bashing against him and about Likud Chairman Benjamin Netanyahu's recent climb in the polls. But the prime minister's unprecedented weakness is no laughing matter. It is the pinnacle of a process which is the demise of the party system - a process Olmert has helped bring about.

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Olmert is heading a zombie-party. His political partner, the Labor Party, has hit rock bottom. A storm roars all around him: A war gone bad, investigations of financial and sexual corruption in the corridors of power. The lack of any sort of political alternative to Olmert's party attests to the extreme fragility of our political system. A shaky Knesset is seeking to avoid elections.

Paradoxically, the end result makes Olmert pretty sturdy in his post. Only an especially harsh report by the Winograd Committee could throw him off balance now. As for political scandals, such as the one involving Finance Minister Abraham Hirchson, they only reinforce the perception that at times like these, the country cannot afford to have its prime minister replaced on top of everything else.

This belief is shared by quite a few of Olmert's supporters. Otherwise, it would be hard to explain the benign treatment Olmert has been receiving, for example, from the Israel Prize laureate for journalism, Yedioth Ahronoth's Nahum Barnea. Barnea used to be Olmert's neighbor and they are still good friends. Far be it, though, from Barnea - who is one of the most critical journalists working here - to let friendship come in the way of his journalistic duties. It could hardly explain why he has taken to protecting the current leadership despite the steady stream of ongoing failures and omissions it has been producing.

The Olmert paradox is also the only explanation for the self-confidence exuded by the embattled prime minister, who has always been adept at reading the political situation. This air of self-assurance, broken only occasionally on particularly bad days, is not a result of self-delusion or some sort of facade. It owes to the fact that Olmert has succeeded in identifying the paradox before his peers.

Olmert's body language and his gestures reveal that his aggressions have not subsided, as was the case for earlier, better times of his rule. His belligerence was revived because it was joined by anger, disappointment and frustration.

This discussion is necessary not only to draw the current profile of a man who, to a certain degree, holds our faith in his hands. We must concern ourselves with Olmert's psyche because he is now on the threshold of the single most important decision reserved for Israel's leader - more important even than going to war - and that is making peace.

The current mental and political situation of the prime minister could lead to two opposite directions. He might entrench himself in his political stance, assuming he can't afford to be perceived as lenient in his current dire position. However, given that his weakness is already threatening to terminate his tenure earlier than expected, he might decide to encourage peace negotiations now being discussed from Washington, through Riyadh and London to Ramallah. Olmert has made some statements to that effect this week. Those who are so inclined, may now believe that Olmert has begun taking the right directions.

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  1.   No Paradox 14:00  |  Zev 04/04/07
  2.   liberal rant 14:11  |  Josh 04/04/07
  3.   Maybe he is so lazy 14:37  |  Tamir Gaza 04/04/07
  4.   The moving target 15:52  |  Aharon Rosenbaum 04/04/07
  5.   House of cards 16:27  |  Dror 04/04/07
  6.   The truth is much much simpler 17:27  |  Michael N 04/04/07
  7.   A puzzle 17:49  |  Dangor 04/04/07
  8.   for Dangor 18:34  |  Daddy 04/04/07
  9.   olmert`s confidence 05:44  |  mike 05/04/07
  10.   OLMERT AND LIVNI ARE BOTH DEFEATISTS AND LEFTISTS 09:59  |  DAN ROSENTHAL 05/04/07
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