Should Israel accept the cease-fire (hudna) offer - short or long-term - which will certainly come from Hamas and the Palestinian Authority unity government?

On the basis of military logic the answer should be no, because this path will allow Hamas to become more established and increase its military strength through arms smuggling, including to the West Bank.

The political logic, on the other hand, says this could be an opportunity to begin a process of de-escalation, of ending violence and bloodshed, after which Hamas, under Palestinian public pressure, will choose to compromise with Israel.

	Advertisement

For the general public, a cease-fire and calm could be a temptation. Right-wing elements, who for the most part operate based on the phrase "quiet is mire" (which appears in the Beitar anthem written by Ze'ev Jabotinsky) will object due to concerns that the calm will lead to Israeli withdrawals and disengagements.

The question should be what is hiding behind a cease-fire that is not an agreement but rather an indirect understanding with an organization, Hamas, that controls a unity government and claims it does not have to implement agreements with Israel that others have signed.

All intelligence officials in Israel confidently say that Hamas is the side that is currently most in need of a cease-fire. Hamas has reached the conclusion that the best and easiest way to continue the military build-up, to get organized properly, and to continue smuggling large quantities of weapons and ammunition into the territories, including up-to-date weapons, is under the cover of a cease-fire.

In the context of a cease-fire, the Israel Defense Forces would halt its operations against Hamas. It is clear that Hamas will not make do with a cease-fire solely in the Gaza Strip, and will ask the IDF to stop all operations in Judea and Samaria as well.

This is a great opening for the smuggling of rockets and Qassams to the West Bank, and the strengthening of Hamas' position relative to Fatah. This assessment holds that a cease-fire will allow Hamas to take over Fatah and the Palestine Liberation Organization in general. The calm will lead to the lifting of the international boycott on Hamas. This is the best way to prepare for the next military confrontation with Israel, which will begin under better conditions for Hamas.

From Israel's standpoint, this means the next confrontation under such conditions would be more difficult and likely to be conducted on more than one front. In addition, Israel must assume that if it rejects the cease-fire, the situation will deteriorate into a military confrontation on its own. Could the new Palestinian unity government's forces prevent organizations like Islamic Jihad or the Popular Resistance Committees from firing Qassam rockets? A strike that costs lives in Israel will lead almost automatically to a large-scale military confrontation. The Israeli government may want to take advantage of this to initiate a large military operation.

The cease-fire offer could also be presented to the Israeli government by foreign countries such as Egypt or Saudi Arabia, and Israel would have a hard time rejecting it outright without presenting its demands.

For Israel, a cease-fire is not limited to rocket fire or attempts to carry out suicide bombings. It must include an end to the large-scale weapons smuggling, mostly through the Egyptian border, as well as supervision of the issue. It includes an end to the arrival of Iranian and Hezbollah experts to train Hamas militants in Gaza, as it is certain that they will do all they can to fan the flames of war in the future. It also includes the release of captured IDF soldier Gilad Shalit, who has become a symbol of the struggle.

If Hamas wants dialogue with the Israeli public, this is what it must do now that there is a Palestinian unity government, and it must rest assured that Palestinian prisoners will not lose as a result of such steps.