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Last update - 10:18 15/03/2007 The optimist and the pessimist By Aluf Benn The optimist: This week began with new political hope. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert praised the Saudi initiative, and then met with Mahmoud Abbas for a "positive" discussion. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is on her way here again, and the Saudis are convening a summit in Riyadh. Something is certainly moving behind the scenes. The pessimist: Nonsense, it's all spin. The prime minister has plummeted below the sampling error in the polls, the Winograd report is threatening him with personal conclusions, and he is scrambling to rescue himself. Nothing will come of it. The optimist: But the Saudi initiative guarantees Israel peace with all the Arab countries, backs the struggling Palestinians, brings Syria and Lebanon into the process, and strengthens the moderates vis-a-vis Iran. In brief, this is a dream deal for Israel, which in one fell swoop will be freed of the territories and will become part of the Middle East, and is a shot of encouragement for the peace camp, which has disintegrated in recent years. Advertisement The pessimist: The Saudis have interests too. They want to look good in America and hold influence in the Arab world. For them, the cheapest option is to offer Israeli concessions and a Palestinian right of return. We saw how they refused to change the initiative, even the problematic section about the refugees, in order for Israel to accept it as a basis for negotiations. If their king is serious, he will stop making statements to the press and come to Israel, or invite Olmert to Riyadh. And the Saudi initiative won't stop the Qassam rockets either, which will only come closer to Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Ben-Gurion International Airport. The optimist: The Saudis may be problematic, but we cannot ignore the renewed American involvement in the peace process. Rice comes to the region every month, is talking about a diplomatic horizon and is trying to push things forward. The pessimist: Nu, really. We've seen what this failing administration is capable of in Iraq, and where its previous efforts to promote an Israeli-Palestinian agreement have led. It's always nice to host Rice, but with whom can she work? Abbas is struggling to form a unity government, he does not control the region, and there's no point in even wasting words on Olmert's shaky situation. The optimist: The weakness of the leaders is actually a source for hope. They both know that only a diplomatic deal could save their weak regimes, and therefore they will agree to the concessions necessary for an agreement. They have no other choice. The pessimist: During Ehud Barak's time, we also believed weakness was strength. That the advanced age of Yasser Arafat and Hafez Assad, Barak's shaky coalition and Bill Clinton's pending retirement would push them to an agreement. The opposite happened. Due to their weakness, the leaders entrenched themselves in positions that prevented compromise, led to a blow-up and ended negotiations. And this is while there was still agreement on the goals. Now Abbas is begging for a final status agreement, and Olmert is ready only for a partial withdrawal. The optimist: We have to agree, at least, that there is great importance to Olmert and Abbas meeting. This is preferable to the previous lack of communication, and leaves a faint ember of hope for a diplomatic process and peace. The cease-fire in Gaza is shaky, but holding. We must not give this up. The pessimist: On the contrary, let them meet. In any case they have no better way of spending their time. But it's hard to get excited about a dialogue of the deaf - empty promises and rejected requests. Abbas' promises to release kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit are a fantasy at best, and misleading at worst. And I will conclude with a conspiracy theory: Olmert is a lawyer who takes care to cover himself, and the meetings with Abbas will yet serve to justify a large military campaign in Gaza. The minutes will prove he warned about war and tried to prevent it, but the Palestinians did not respond. It may be that Olmert's visit to the border of the Gaza Strip two days ago, during which he heard about the increasing threats on the other side of the fence and the Israel Defense Forces attack plans, will turn out to be much more significant than his talk of peace. Bookmark to del.icio.us   Scuba SMS Ultrasonic sound wave technology revolutionizes underwater communication. 'Hip-hop violinist' Israeli violinist participates in New York event, celebrating Israel's 60th anniversary.   1.   another DAY AT THE RACES , SAUDIS ARE GOOD WITH HORSES 10:38  |  paul harris 15/03/07   2.   it is obvious that saudi plan is designed to phase out Israel, so 11:08  |  Pavel 15/03/07   3.   WHY I AM A PESSIMIST 11:32  |  indrajaya 15/03/07   4.   the palestinians want to make israel disappear 11:39  |  gadalyah 15/03/07   5.   Just war preparation 11:46  |  kookoo jude 15/03/07   6.   We all know that we are preparing for war 12:07  |  Judith, Haifa 15/03/07   7.   I don`t think so. 12:50  |  S 15/03/07   8.   Peace with Arabs 12:57  |  Steven 15/03/07   9.   You don`t need another war # 1 13:17  |  Edith 15/03/07   10.   Isreal needs a special statute.... 13:20  |  Edith 15/03/07   11.   Optimist? 13:22  |  P. J. Casey 15/03/07   12.   # 3 Indrajaya 13:25  |  Edith 15/03/07   13.   # 11, P.J. CASEY 13:32  |  Indrajaya 15/03/07   14.   The realist 13:41  |  Dr David I Gross 15/03/07   15.   #3 Indrajaya: You are not a pessimist. You are a racist Muslim. 14:04  |  Yacov 15/03/07   16.   #11 P.J.: Idiot? 14:06  |  Yacov 15/03/07   17.   Condy shakes a finger, olmert nods and then goes back 14:19  |  Yaakov Sullivan 15/03/07   18.   # !4 Dr. Gross is correct and I hope Israel is prepared 15:00  |  The Equalizer 15/03/07   19.   At the root 15:02  |  Danite 15/03/07   20.   JUST ARROGANCE 15:05  |  Ian 15/03/07   21.   Israel wants war 15:06  |  mehmet 15/03/07   22.   Peace moves are seriously meant by degenerate self hating Elite 15:26  |  Myself 15/03/07   23.   REALISTS VERSUS DENIALISTS 15:34  |  B 15/03/07   24.   How can anyone be optimistic in this reality 15:36  |  Jabadini 15/03/07   25.   Why I am an OPTIMIST! 15:40  |  Jeremy 15/03/07   26.   Israel certaibly doesn`t deserve peace 15:50  |  Stephen Murray 15/03/07   27.   Realist 16:28  |  Paul 15/03/07   28.   War is just around the corner. 16:34  |  David Nigel Braham 15/03/07   29.   326 MURRAY IS BACK WITH THE USUAL LYING CRAP 17:01  |  paul harris 15/03/07   30.   Stephen Murray 1967 con `t 17:04  |  Steven 15/03/07   31.   #21 Mehmet: : Blaming Israel for Arab pathology 17:59  |  Yacov 15/03/07   32.   #26 Stephen: Israel doesn`t deserve racist Arab Muslim bigots 18:03  |  Yacov 15/03/07   33.   Jeremy are you blind or don`t understand the situation here 18:06  |  Jabadini 15/03/07   34.   May My Right Hand Lose Its Cunning 18:33  |  Yonatan Netser 15/03/07   35.   Recognizing Israel 18:33  |  Shanna 15/03/07   36.   At least the Saudis know how to play the negotiating game 18:39  |  bbl 15/03/07   37.   like the u.s of a... 18:41  |  ravi 15/03/07   38.   WHAT PEACE MOVES ? 19:22  |  Wendy 15/03/07   39.   AND WHAT ABOUT THE POOR TOMORESE INDRAJAYA??? 19:23  |  alonitzafoni 15/03/07   40.   No peace in our time, but try to keep body count down 20:32  |  Voice of Reason 15/03/07   41.   Shanna`s question 20:42  |  inigo montoya 15/03/07   42.   Yonatan Netser #34: May YHWH bless you and keep you indeed! (end) 22:39  |  Psalm 15/03/07   43.   Yes a war is being prepared lets pray Olmert is not the PM 23:18  |  Kipperraes 15/03/07   44.   Of course Israel needs more war 23:33  |  Frank Baum 15/03/07   45.   Isreal MUST make peace with its neighbors 23:48  |  Joe 15/03/07   46.   stephen miller 00:40  |  jeremy 16/03/07   47.   # 19 Danite 00:46  |  Lynn 16/03/07   48.   #9 Edith from Belgium, You realy think, the 01:45  |  TOMY 16/03/07   49.   #21 mehmet, Israel does not want war 01:55  |  TOMY 16/03/07   50.   Frank Baum and perversion 01:58  |  rich 16/03/07   51.   #45 Joe, Peace makes sence,Joe does not 02:06  |  TOMY 16/03/07   52.   So what might the realist say? 02:10  |  Mark Lincoln 16/03/07   53.   Reality 03:33  |  Larry 16/03/07   54.   # 39, ALONITZAFONI 06:54  |  indrajaya 16/03/07   55.   NOT SO INDRAJAYA 10:14  |  alonitzafoni 16/03/07   56.   NOT SI INDRAJAYA 10:16  |  alonitzafoni 16/03/07   57.   You`re not at war now? 10:36  |  English Resident 16/03/07   58.   Joe 20:23  |  inigo montoya 16/03/07   59.   MOSHE TALANSKY 03:16  |  LILIAN 29/05/08

Read & React U.K. union mulls new move to boycott Israeli academia Responses: 74 Meron Benvenisti: Isolation of Gaza is part of Israel's divide and conquer policy Responses: 4 Rosner's Guest: U.S. strengthening Iran, says dovish pro-Israel lobby Responses: 32 Olmert to Kadima: Give me time to prove my innocence Responses: 25 Haaretz.com TV: East J'lem Arabs detail violence they face by city's Jews Responses: 11 More Headlines 05:51 Olmert to Kadima: Give me time to prove my innocence 08:30 Sources: Money laundering the key charge in Olmert case 09:10 Report: U.S. urges UN to find secret nuclear facilities in Syria 06:07 Barak draws harsh criticism for calling on Olmert to quit post 00:00 U.K. academic union moves to consider boycott of Israeli academia 02:36 Jeremy Ben-Ami 08:25 Palestinians pin hopes of economic recovery on high-tech companies 09:31 Gaza City: Where the traffic jams smell like falafel 06:46 Israeli Arab seeks to overcome prejudice in advertising world 06:47 State to give Gush Katif evacuees NIS 1.5b more compensation Previous Editions Select Day 28 may 27 may 26 may 25 may 23 may 22 may 21 may 20 may 19 may 18 may 16 may 15 may

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