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Last update - 12:51 14/03/2007
Kadima Council to meet amid fears of early election, PM ouster
By Mazal Mualem, Haaretz Correspondent

The Kadima Council is to meet Wednesday amid growing concern over the possibility of early elections, following the release next month of the Winograd Committee interim report on the 2006 Lebanon war.

Party activists are anxiously awaiting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's speech to the Petah Tikva gathering, which was planned before the Tuesday announcement on the Winograd report.

Political sources said Tuesday they believe that the report, which will include personal conclusions on the conduct of Olmert during the run-up to the war and its first five days, will result in an early ballot.

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Some senior Kadima officials agree with this assessment, and said behind closed doors Tuesday that the party must prepare for the possibility that Olmert will be forced to resign.

They said Kadima must therefore thwart a potential move by Likud Chairman Benjamin Netanyahu to split Kadima, and with the assistance of some of the party's MKs, form an alternate governing coalition.

According to the officials, in such an event the party must field an alternate candidate for prime minister. Both Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Vice Premier Shimon Peres have been mentioned as candidates who could see the party through the crisis, prevent a struggle for succession, and govern until the elections.

"The battle over succession in Kadima essentially began today," said a senior party official Tuesday. "Olmert is living on borrowed time. Even if he doesn't resign, there are those in Kadima ... who won't let him continue to destroy the party and will act to replace him."

Potential successors to Olmert in Kadima include ministers Livni, Shaul Mofaz and Avi Dichter, with Peres as a compromise candidate.

Kadima MK Meir Sheetrit said, "I don't think anyone should start chopping off heads. There is a party and a prime minister running the country. We should all be statesmanlike. It is unfortunate that the Winograd Committee issued an unnecessary announcement... that has caused a political storm."

Netanyahu is expected to accelerate efforts in the coming weeks to garner the support of 61 MKs, which would allow him to govern without election.

Last week, Netanyahu spoke publicly for the first time on the possibility of Kadima MKs defecting to Likud, and said some of them have discussed the issue with Likud MKs. According to Likud officials, the discussions have raised the possibility of reserving 10 spots in Likud for Kadima MKs. Ten MKs is the minimum number needed in order to break off from Kadima, as one-third of Kadima's 29 MKs are required for such a move.

"Reserving spots is the name of the game," said a Likud MK. "The MKs that are talking with us will demand reserved spots in order to ensure their place."

Even if Netanyahu does succeed in garnering 10 Kadima MKs, he would still be dependent on Yisrael Beiteinu and Shas - a complicated move that he likely won't be able to pull off.

In Kadima, concern centers on the impact of the Winograd interim report on the party's future. Olmert's associates, including MK Tzachi Hanegbi, believe the prime minister will brave the report and restabilize the political system. On the other hand, some party officials have begun examining the party's charter in advance of the possibility that Olmert will resign.

While the charter does not allow for the removal of a sitting chairman, it does state that should the party chairman resign, the party's Knesset faction will determine an acting chairman with the approval of the Kadima Council. The acting chairman will lead the party for two months, until the primaries, in which the acting chairman cannot run.

The Winograd Committee's announcement also caused tension in the Labor Party, as the personal conclusions are expected to be published one month before the party's primaries, scheduled for May 28.

Peretz's associates maintain the Labor chairman will stay in the running to the end, but leading candidates Ami Ayalon and Ehud Barak began preparing Tuesday for the possibility that both Peretz and Olmert will resign before the Labor vote.

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