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So who's going to destroy Iran's nuclear reactor?
By Prof. Ephraim Yaar and Prof. Tamar Hermann

Despite the intense recent criticism of the functioning of the government, the Jewish public appears to support its overall policy on foreign- and security-related issues. Similar to Israel's official position, a majority of the Jewish public thinks the establishment of the Palestinian unity government reduces the chances of reaching a political settlement, and does not believe an agreement based on a two-state solution can be reached with this government. A large majority also supports the official policy of not negotiating with the Palestinian unity government until it recognizes Israel and fulfills the Quartet's other conditions, particularly fighting terror. At the same time, though, the prevailing opinion is that Israel cannot allow the present situation to continue and must make greater efforts than in the past to reach a political settlement with the Palestinians.

On the Syrian issue, as in the past, the dominant position is against a peace agreement in return for a full withdrawal from the Golan, and a majority also supports not responding to the Syrian initiative to renew negotiations as long as it supports Hezbollah and other terror organizations. The Syrian approach is seen as resulting from weakness and not from a genuine desire for peace. At the same time, the widespread assessment is that Israel's policy stems mainly from the United States' opposition to negotiating with Damascus because of its position on the Iraqi issue, though Israelis believe it was right to accede to the American demand even if the Israeli leadership sees things differently.

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On Iran, the unanimous view is that its nuclear armament constitutes an existential danger to Israel, and a small majority also says Israel should attack the Iranian nuclear facilities even if it has to do so alone. Again similar to the official position, the majority favors adhering to Israel's traditional policy of ambiguity regarding its nuclear capacity.

In the domestic sphere, the Jewish public continues its overwhelming support for rooting out corruption in the public sector, and only a small minority thinks these efforts are excessive and harm the government's ability to function.

These are the main conclusions of the Peace Index survey that was carried out on February 26-27 2007.

About 55 percent of the Jewish public now believes the establishment of the Palestinian national unity government reduces the chances of reaching a peace settlement and only 25 percent believes its establishment will increase those chances (the rest have no opinion on the matter). Note: There is a majority for this view among all the parties. Fifty-six percent of the Jewish public also sees it as impossible to reach a settlement with this government based on the principle of two states for two peoples, compared to 40 percent who think it is possible. Interestingly, on this question, in contrast to the previous one, there is an opposite majority among voters for Meretz and Labor who, unlike the rest of the parties, do not see an agreement based on the two-state principle as impossible. An unequivocal majority - 83 percent - says the Israeli government should not recognize the Palestinian unity government or negotiate with it as long as it does not recognize Israel and fulfill the Quartet's conditions, especially in regard to fighting terror. Here, the trend in Meretz and Labor voters' views is identical to that of voters from other parties.

As expected, the views are different in the Arab sector. Here a majority of people, albeit not large (52 percent), believe the establishment of the Palestinian unity government increases the chances for a settlement, and a majority of 64 percent say a settlement can currently be reached based on the principle of two states for two peoples. Only about one-fourth think Israel should avoid contact with the unity government as long as it has not recognized Israel and fulfilled the Quartet's conditions.

Nevertheless, the dominant view - 63 percent of the Jewish public and 86 percent of the Arab public - is that the present situation is dangerous for Israel, and it should make greater efforts than in the past to reach a political settlement.

Also on the Syrian issue, the hawkish line - similar to the government's position - holds sway among the Israeli Jewish public. Only about one-fifth of people favor peace and a full withdrawal from the Golan Heights and only 41 percent believe Israel should respond positively to Syria's call to return to negotiations even if it has not stopped supporting Hezbollah and other terror organizations.

Conversely, 52 percent think Syria's call stems from weakness and Israel should not respond positively. At the same time, the public is aware of the link between the United States' policy against negotiations with Syria since Damascus supports organizations that are attacking the U.S. forces in Iraq, and the Israeli government's position on this question. The leading view - 49 percent - holds that Israel is mainly acceding to the American demand on this matter, while only 37 percent of people see Israel as taking an independent position.

'Willing submission'

However, this is a case of "willing submission" since the majority - 52 percent - think Israel is right to accede to the American demand not to engage in contact with Syria on a settlement, with only 36 percent saying it should not accede if the Israeli government's position is different from the American one. Only among Meretz voters does a majority - 54.5 percent - assert that Israel should not follow the American demand on this issue.

In the Arab sector, the picture is different. The majority - 81 percent - support the formula of full peace for a full withdrawal from the Golan, and 73 percent think the Israeli government should respond positively to Syria's call to return to the negotiating table without stipulating that it end its support for Hezbollah and other terror organizations. Here, too, only a minority - 23 percent - see Israel as taking an independent stance and the majority - 67 percent - see it as going along with an American dictate. However, unlike in the Jewish sector, in the Arab sector the majority - 65 percent - say Israel should not accept the American position on the issue.

On the Iranian issue, too, the Israeli Jewish public sees eye to eye with the government's position. Eighty-two percent of people believe Iranian's nuclear armament constitutes an existential danger to Israel. And a majority - albeit smaller at 48.5 percent - say Israel should attack Iran's nuclear facilities and destroy them even if it has to do so on its own.

Interestingly, in the Arab sector, as well, a majority, albeit not large - 53 percent - view the Iranian armament as an existential danger to Israel, but only a tiny minority - 8 percent - favor Israel attacking the Iranian facilities even by itself.

Having touched on the nuclear issue, this time we looked into the Israeli public's position on Israel's traditional policy of ambiguity. The Jewish public shows clear support for ambiguity among voters for all parties, with 62 percent in favor of maintaining this policy. In the Arab sector, however, the majority of people - 54 percent - think Israel should openly declare that it has nuclear weapons.

As in recent months, we again found that a majority - both in the Jewish (64 percent) and Arab (55 percent) publics - support continuing the efforts to expose corruption in the public sector with only a minority seeing these efforts as excessive. At the same time, in both publics only a small majority (47 percent vs. 44 percent in the Jewish public, 50 percent vs. 42 percent in the Arab public) believes these efforts will bear fruit.

The Peace Index project is conducted by the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research and the Evens Program in Mediation and Conflict Resolution at Tel Aviv University, headed by Prof. Ephraim Yaar and Prof. Tamar Hermann. The telephone interviews were conducted by the B. I. Cohen Institute of Tel Aviv University on February 26-27, 2007 and included 590 interviewees who represent the adult Jewish and Arab population in Israel (including the territories and the kibbutzim). The sampling error for a sample of this size is 4.5 percent.

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  1.   not America 00:33  |  sam 08/03/07
  2.   If not America 06:31  |  Efox 08/03/07
  3.   Almost half of Israelis want war with Iran 09:01  |  spyguy 08/03/07
  4.   Be Sceptical Of Poll Results. 09:06  |  Terry 08/03/07
  5.   "Israel will be the new sole superpower." 10:03  |  Andreas 08/03/07
  6.   Reply to Spyguy in S.F. #3 10:35  |  Terry 08/03/07
  7.   it will be america 11:03  |  mehmet 08/03/07
  8.   At least the govt reflects public opinion! 11:14  |  Joe 08/03/07
  9.   going to destroy 05:25  |  ljf-canada 10/03/07
  10.   well 10:28  |  E-sp 11/03/07
  11.   What about Europe? 16:22  |  Joel 11/03/07
  12.   gre2375 03:18  |  Grigoriy Mendelson 12/03/07
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