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Some serious thoughts on Syria
By Ze'ev Schiff

The annual intelligence report presented to the government this week resembled an open debate of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, which usually ends with a deluge of leaks. The intelligence community realized this ahead of time, took precautions, and lowered the level of secrecy. Sanitizing, they call it.

First there was a restricted meeting with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. The next round of meetings deviated from the norm. Instead of a meeting of the defense cabinet, with its small team of ministers, Olmert opted to present the report to the government plenary. Apparently he wanted to "share" responsibility on a subject as sensitive as Syria with all his ministers, although this does not free him from supreme responsibility as prime minister.

The way in which the intelligence officials were pushed into addressing political issues (shall we talk to Syria or not) also differed from normal procedure. This is not the role of the intelligence. Their job is to gather information and to evaluate it.

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Military Intelligence Chief Amos Yadlin warned that Syria is growing stronger. The message being projected to Bashar Assad is that Israel is not prepared to discuss peace, he said. Assad could reach the conclusion that force is the only solution. After last year's war in Lebanon, there was much talk in Syria about how Hezbollah proved that a military confrontation with Israel could achieve something. If this is the case, then Israel needs to consider the possibility of war with Syria at some future date.

At first, Yadlin was not sure that Assad's intentions were serious. Now, they say, he accepts the contention of the MI research division that Assad's proposals are genuine. This is not to say that Assad has changed his mind about the price Israel will have to pay (the Golan Heights). On the other hand, the Mossad's research division believes Assad's moves are all part of a tactical ploy to reduce international pressure on Syria.

The former head of MI, Uri Saguy, says Israel and Syria are asking the same questions: Does the other side really want an agreement? Is it capable of reaching one? Saguy believes these questions need to be thoroughly investigated. Defense Minister Amir Peretz, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and former defense minister Benjamin Ben-Eliezer feel the same way.

But Major General (res.) Giora Eiland, former head of the National Security Council, insists that Israel must not give up the Golan. Doing so will not solve Israel's other strategic problems and may even aggravate them. The Syrians will not keep their word, and if a war breaks out, without the Golan Israel will be in a worse position than it would be with the Golan. The prime minister has been opposed to unconditional talks with Damascus from the outset, although some say there are signs that he is starting to crack.

In principle, no country should declare itself unwilling to explore the possibility of peace. The question is how this exploration should be carried out. Secret contacts are of the utmost importance. Our major precondition is that Syria end its involvement in terror against Israel. At the same time, it is unreasonable to believe that Syria will sever its ties with Iran.

Coordination with Washington is also an issue, and in this area, things are changing. Previous Israeli contacts with the Arabs were usually secret and were not coordinated with the Americans. This was the case with Egypt, at Oslo with the Palestinians, and with Jordan. Israel's interest lies in preventing war and reaching an agreement with another Arab state in a manner that will also impact on Lebanon.

We need to think like the Turks: Despite everything, it is preferable to have Bashar Assad sitting in Damascus - rather than the Muslim Brotherhood.

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  1.   maj gen herzl sapir "army had not touched tanks for a year" 11:33  |  flashman 02/03/07
  2.   there are many reasons why we should not have a professional idf 11:40  |  flashman 02/03/07
  3.   the former head of mi uri saguy has made a career of 12:06  |  flashman 02/03/07
  4.   giora eiland is right 12:08  |  flashman 02/03/07
  5.   giora eiland and his reasons for keeping the heights 12:11  |  flashman 02/03/07
  6.   A SECONDARY THING 12:33  |  indrajaya 02/03/07
  7.   Why? 13:59  |  Sidney 02/03/07
  8.   Zeev Shiff ,Turkey keeps Syrian Alexandretta region,their quotes. 14:48  |  Absolute Sweden 02/03/07
  9.   you only scare yourself or are trying to scare us to satisfy you 15:03  |  ralph 02/03/07
  10.   Schiff, that`s fine, just don`t insist on returning the Golan 15:27  |  Chanan 02/03/07
  11.   Between two evils 15:53  |  Brod 02/03/07
  12.   So funny 15:54  |  Clickfool 02/03/07
  13.   Ze`ev Schiff guilty of rational thought 15:59  |  Mark Lincoln 02/03/07
  14.   indrajaya you are quite clearly an illiterate 16:10  |  bella 02/03/07
  15.   You Are Not Thinking - You Are Wishing 16:10  |  Tony Anthony 02/03/07
  16.   Syria`s intent 16:15  |  Tosefta 02/03/07
  17.   SOME NEWS THE LEFT MAY HAVE MISSED 16:21  |  Bongo 02/03/07
  18.   Mr. Schiff is what is wrong with the media 16:25  |  Gee 02/03/07
  19.   tosefta "assad is very sincere" 16:37  |  flashman 02/03/07
  20.   tosefta baby assad and the harari murder 16:39  |  flashman 02/03/07
  21.   tosefta foresees the end of hizballah 16:47  |  flashman 02/03/07
  22.   tosefta "the peace process has ended because of israel 16:51  |  flashman 02/03/07
  23.   Rational thought (Mark Lincoln #13) 17:15  |  Tosefta 02/03/07
  24.   Atavistic kingdoms, military dictatorships and exclusive religion 17:22  |  Apartheid 02/03/07
  25.   OUT OF THE FRYING PAN INTO THE FIRE 17:25  |  paul harris 02/03/07
  26.   Absolute crap on Alexandretta (Absolute Sweden #8) 17:26  |  Tosefta 02/03/07
  27.   mark lincoln and "sectarian government" 17:35  |  flashman 02/03/07
  28.   # 16 Tosefta 17:36  |  Nick Ferriman 02/03/07
  29.   silly tosefta patronises lincoln 17:37  |  flashman 02/03/07
  30.   Return of the shallow water, multi-headed hydra (aka "flushman") 17:41  |  Tosefta 02/03/07
  31.   # 20 Flashman 18:00  |  Nick Ferriman 02/03/07
  32.   tony anthony 15 18:04  |  HarryDC 02/03/07
  33.   tosefta the un charter is for the birds 18:09  |  yirmiyahu 02/03/07
  34.   # 2 Flashman 18:21  |  Nick Ferriman 02/03/07
  35.   Future thoughts (Nick Ferriman #28) 18:25  |  Tosefta 02/03/07
  36.   # 26 Tosefta 18:29  |  Nick Ferriman 02/03/07
  37.   Syria 18:50  |  michael pielet 02/03/07
  38.   Indrajaya Old Pal 19:02  |  Yosemite 02/03/07
  39.   MR.Ze`ve Schiff sensible article. 19:09  |  Angelina 02/03/07
  40.   #30, Tosefta 19:17  |  JB 02/03/07
  41.   #31, Nick Ferriman 19:24  |  JB 02/03/07
  42.   Our verbally diarrhetic "flushman"; aka The Hydra 19:32  |  Tosefta 02/03/07
  43.   West Bank thoughts (Nick Ferriman #36) 19:39  |  Tosefta 02/03/07
  44.   Syria and the Palestinians 19:43  |  P. J. Casey 02/03/07
  45.   nick ferriman 19:55  |  flashman 02/03/07
  46.   nick ferriman 19:56  |  flashman 02/03/07
  47.   The Civil War (JB #40) 19:58  |  Tosefta 02/03/07
  48.   nick ferriman "half trained 18 year old zealots 19:59  |  flashman 02/03/07
  49.   #34, Nick Ferriman 20:08  |  JB 02/03/07
  50.   He was too busy dreaming 20:11  |  Mark Lincoln 02/03/07
  51.   If Assad is so good why does Israel need to prepare for war 20:11  |  Chick Corea 02/03/07
  52.   # 1 #2 #3 #4#5 flashman. RIGHT ON ALL COUNTS.. 20:13  |  Kath` 02/03/07
  53.   # 9 ralph. PERHAPS A BIT OF BOTH.BUT FOOLS WE ARE NOT... 20:15  |  Kath` 02/03/07
  54.   #43, Tosefta 20:16  |  JB 02/03/07
  55.   nick ferriman "how would you reconcile democracy 20:17  |  flashman 02/03/07
  56.   Flashman - like duh! 20:17  |  Mark Lincoln 02/03/07
  57.   nick ferriman do i need to give you more examples of 20:23  |  flashman 02/03/07
  58.   nick ferriman "god given dispensation to behave differently" 20:26  |  flashman 02/03/07
  59.   #47, Tosefta 20:30  |  JB 02/03/07
  60.   so you are not american nick ferriman 20:32  |  flashman 02/03/07
  61.   # 29 flashman. SENT AND APPROVED OF ALL THE FIVE POSTED ABOVE 20:33  |  Kath` 02/03/07
  62.   nick ferriman cnn reporter allesio vinci april 1999 20:41  |  flashman 02/03/07
  63.   Israel wants to protect Assad?--then don`t make peace with him! 20:42  |  Voice of Reason 02/03/07
  64.   mark lincoln your post has no meaning 20:47  |  flashman 02/03/07
  65.   kath the answer is simple tosefta is pandering 20:51  |  flashman 02/03/07
  66.   nicj ferriman and what of the israeli pilots themselves 21:00  |  flashman 02/03/07
  67.   and now you tosefta pandering to every antisemite 21:03  |  flashman 02/03/07
  68.   you can wait until Americano-Syrian relations improve 21:08  |  christoph 02/03/07
  69.   nick ferriman i missed a piece of your black humour 21:12  |  flashman 02/03/07
  70.   nick ferriman and assassinations 21:26  |  flashman 02/03/07
  71.   Same Israeli Delusions 21:39  |  Tod Zuckerman 02/03/07
  72.   Questions, questions (JB #54, 59) 21:41  |  Tosefta 02/03/07
  73.   Assad is a better choice 21:58  |  Freud 02/03/07
  74.   Flashman debates # 67 22:05  |  Clickfool 02/03/07
  75.   Schiff the stiff.... 22:09  |  Blogowitz 02/03/07
  76.   Schiff memory problems? 22:18  |  Moses 02/03/07
  77.   @12 True, Israel should neither take to the devil... 22:22  |  Karl 02/03/07
  78.   Freud (#73) 22:39  |  christoph 02/03/07
  79.   #72, Tosefta 23:38  |  JB 02/03/07
  80.   Arab refugees (JB #79) 01:12  |  Tosefta 03/03/07
  81.   Barking, yapping, spoilt little watchdog... 01:54  |  Maureen Ann 03/03/07
  82.   wow... 02:54  |  Damir 03/03/07
  83.   recent articles 06:06  |  alexander schiff 03/03/07
  84.   # 38, YOSI (SAM THE SHAM) 06:08  |  indrajaya 03/03/07
  85.   ASSAD or MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD - it is not Israel Choice. 08:24  |  Vittorio 03/03/07
  86.   #80, Tosefta 09:41  |  JB