Subscribe to Print Edition | Sun., May 18, 2008 Iyyar 13, 5768 | | Israel Time: 23:55 (EST+7)
Haaretz israel news English
web haaretz.com
  Back to Homepage
Rosner's Domain
Diplomacy
Defense Jewish World Opinion National
Print Edition
Advertising
Books Arts & Leisure Business Real Estate Easy Start Travel Week's End Anglo File
Final status in a new era
By Jerome M. Segal

Israel's inability to deal with either Hezbollah's missiles or those from Gaza, makes it likely that some sort of provisionality, perhaps as envisioned in the optional Phase 2 of the road map plan, will be part of any peace process.

The real choice facing Israeli policymakers today is whether to limit negotiations to Phase 2 of the road map. This would mean postponing discussion of Jerusalem and of the refugees, and testing the Palestinians with a state with provisional boundaries. The alternative is to negotiate a comprehensive end-of-conflict agreement with Mahmoud Abbas [Abu Mazen], but subject it to performance-based implementation, moving gradually toward full sovereignty and final borders. This latter approach does not drop any of the phases of the road map, but reorders them, starting with Phase 3 negotiations and then making Phases 2 and 1 part of the implementation process.

Reaching a comprehensive final status agreement at the outset offers new opportunities for building peace:
Advertisement
Starting with the Temple Mount: While genuine borders might come late in the implementation process, with a full deal in place, it will be possible to immediately begin implementation of the final status provisions for the Temple Mount. Ideally, the treaty would affirm that "sovereignty belongs to God," vest operational control with the Palestinians, and establish an international mechanism to adjudicate disputes. Success here would change the tenor of the conflict and have far-reaching implications for the relations between Islam and the West.

Early movement to address the plight of the refugees: Once an agreement is signed, refugee compensation as well as resettlement could begin immediately. Europe, the United States and the Arab states could open their doors to refugees living in Lebanon who choose those venues. Whatever provision is made for a limited number of refugees to live in Israel would be held for later, cautious implementation. Inside the territories, sustained construction of new communities, with the help of the Arab states, could begin to replace the refugee camps. Movement in this realm, which has been stagnant since 1948, will add significantly to a transformation from despair to hope.

Linking de jure sovereignty to the achievement of de facto control: Israeli recognition of Palestinian sovereignty will gradually expand toward the final borders, but only when (1) the Palestinian state actually exercises a monopoly over Palestinian armed forces, and (2) the state is adequately implementing the end-of-conflict agreement. In effect this approach reverses the road map, moving from comprehensive negotiations, to a State with interim boundaries, and only then, as part of its successful assertion of sovereignty, to the Phase One requirement of dismantling terrorist infrastructure.

The key obstacle to initiating negotiations immediately is the problem of a "two-headed government" on the Palestinian side. Some have maintained that there is no point in negotiating until either Fatah defeats Hamas and exercises control over all of the territory, or alternatively, until Hamas (or the new unity government) accepts the three principles of the Quartet (recognition of Israel, nonviolence and acceptance of previously negotiated agreements). This is put forward as something of a mantra. To the extent that arguments are offered for such preconditions, it is said that (1) otherwise Abu Mazen cannot sign a real peace agreement, and/or (2) otherwise no peace agreement can be successfully implemented. This line of reasoning is wrong on all counts.

First, it should be seen that a peace agreement with Israel offers Palestinian moderates a potential path for bringing Palestine to their vision of a pluralistic society rather than one governed by Islamicists. A peace agreement will bring into being a new state, and with it a constitution and new elections. In that context, moderates may win.

Second, neither eliminating Hamas nor having Hamas accept the Quartet conditions up front is realistic. If Hamas is driven from political power, it will go underground and will ensure that no successor governing body will be able to govern. With respect to any peace process, if forced out of government, Hamas will use violence to undermine any negotiations.

Three, what is most needed today from Hamas is not agreement to the three conditions, but the movement's acceptance that Abu Mazen negotiates for all Palestinians, and its willingness to abide by any negotiated peace treaty, provided that it is ratified by a referendum of the Palestinian people. This is all that Israel needs, and seeking more is either foolish over-reaching or the cynical use of preconditions really designed to block a peace process or thwart the elections results.

Four, the above framework for coherence in governance on the Palestinian side, was already accepted, in principle, when Hamas supported the so-called "prisoners' document" last spring. It is stated in paragraph No. 7 of that document. What is needed is codification into Palestinian law. If Israel wants to avoid the chaos of a Palestinian civil collapse, and if it wants to empower Abu Mazen as a negotiating partner, all it has to do is signal that enactment of this framework into Palestinian law will trigger the start of negotiations and a relaxation of the siege on the Palestinian Authority.

Five, if negotiations do move forward under a coherence in governance framework, it is likely that Hamas will moderate politically. However, if this does not happen, and a peace agreement is signed and supported by the Palestinian public, Hamas will be reduced to minority party status. Importantly, the fact that extending Palestinian sovereignty beyond the initial Phase 2 state, will depend on the new government's having a monopoly of power, will make it extremely difficult, in a post-treaty environment, for Hamas or any other group to maintain themselves as armed forces.

Abu Mazen is the best interlocutor that Israel will ever have. His historic mission is the one that Arafat did not seize: to close the final status deal with Israel. His commitment to lasting peace is genuine. If Israel misses the opportunity to negotiate an end-of-conflict accord with Abu Mazen, not only will it face a wider negotiations gap in the future. It may find that there are no Palestinian moderates of stature left standing.

Jerome M. Segal is a senior research scholar at the University of Maryland's Center for International and Security Studies. He is co-author of "Negotiating Jerusalem" (2000).
Bookmark to del.icio.us  
 
Nothing to fear
Nancy Pelosi in Israel: I trust all presidential candidates in regard to Israel.
Bonfire drama
Mount Meron grave of famed rabbi at center of ownership row between rival Sephardic and Ashkenazic trusts.
  1.   NOT IN EVIDENCE: "his commitment to lasting peace is genuine" 10:25  |  Pavel 16/02/07
  2.   UNITY FIRST, FINAL STATUS CAN WAIT 10:53  |  indrajaya 16/02/07
  3.   The case for final-status negotiations. 11:02  |  sandra chitayat 16/02/07
  4.   Final status 11:04  |  Choni Davidowitz 16/02/07
  5.   Ridiculous Suggestions 11:11  |  Stan 16/02/07
  6.   Our Great Leaders at it again... 11:25  |  Rufus 16/02/07
  7.   To Sandra chitayat 11:31  |  Y 16/02/07
  8.   More nonsense from resident expert Indrajaya. 11:56  |  Rufus 16/02/07
  9.   Segal is living on a different planet 12:18  |  Jonathan S 16/02/07
  10.   Daydreaming at Israel`s expense 12:27  |  Shalom Freedman 16/02/07
  11.   SECULAR HUMANISTIC PEACE NOW MADNESS ?? 12:29  |  Bill. 16/02/07
  12.   FINAL STATUS IS ALL ERETZ YISRAEL FOR THE JEWISH PEOPLE ? 12:35  |  Bill. 16/02/07
  13.   ABBAS LIKE ARAPHAT WANTS THE ANNIHILATION OF ISRAEL ?? 12:40  |  Bill. 16/02/07
  14.   To Bill the believer 12:43  |  Rufus 16/02/07
  15.   In Abbas is a moderate then 12:48  |  Gee 16/02/07
  16.   indrajaya goes hyperbolic 12:50  |  Marduk 16/02/07
  17.   About Abbas 13:06  |  Jonathan S 16/02/07
  18.   Our land to arabs - never! 13:33  |  Loise Epstein 16/02/07
  19.   What has Abbas done to show he is a Moderate? 14:23  |  Ronnie Wolman 16/02/07
  20.   Final Status 14:33  |  Baruch 16/02/07
  21.   Israel`s grand chance for national suicide. 14:40  |  Yacov 16/02/07
  22.   Negotiating Jerusalem - from Maryland 14:57  |  Asylum Aleikum 16/02/07
  23.   This Belongs on the Comic Pages 15:00  |  Ben Israel 16/02/07
  24.   Mr.Segal, unfortunately, is not in the government 15:19  |  Yaakov Sullivan 16/02/07
  25.   ndrajaya wants unity in palestine yet does 15:19  |  tommy suharto 16/02/07
  26.   Goal vs. Means 15:26  |  Tosefta 16/02/07
  27.   Quartet foolish preconditions 15:27  |  Tosefta 16/02/07
  28.   Moderation of Hamas; past, present, and future 15:27  |  Tosefta 16/02/07
  29.   This article is so outside the reality , that we wonder why -- 15:37  |  Sal 16/02/07
  30.   No Moderates of Stature Left Standing 15:38  |  Johnny Weintraub 16/02/07
  31.   Lemons Anyone? 15:44  |  Tony Anthony 16/02/07
  32.   Jerome M. Segal 15:57  |  curious 16/02/07
  33.   Close but no Segal 16:00  |  Steven 16/02/07
  34.   F I N A L S T A T U S 16:10  |  Gabe1 16/02/07
  35.   Wake up from your dream 16:11  |  SLAVO 16/02/07
  36.   Goal vs. Means 16:22  |  Tosefta 16/02/07
  37.   Quartet foolish preconditions 16:23  |  Tosefta 16/02/07
  38.   Moderation of Hamas; past, present, and future 16:24  |  Tosefta 16/02/07
  39.   #18 Loise Epstein 16:27  |  Hubal 16/02/07
  40.   For the 1st time a realistic PEACE road map 16:32  |  J.M.Jordan 16/02/07
  41.   Road map ? 16:35  |  Ralph 16/02/07
  42.   BILL #11 16:39  |  OYVEY 16/02/07
  43.   Good article with some flaws 16:54  |  Baz Mann 16/02/07
  44.   28tosefta "Our Father Darwin still lives." 16:57  |  curious 16/02/07
  45.   Tosefta #27 17:00  |  Gabe1 16/02/07
  46.   Hubal 17:04  |  Gbae1 16/02/07
  47.   tosefta hamas do not do "moderate" 17:09  |  flashman 16/02/07
  48.   Tosefta 17:11  |  Zardos 16/02/07
  49.   Islamic Movement calls for 3rd Intifada - Segal delusional 17:12  |  Hal 16/02/07
  50.   As long as we deal with people whose single 17:14  |  Anat 16/02/07
  51.   to tosefta hamas =begin 17:14  |  flashman 16/02/07
  52.   tosefta tells us that assad prefers the golan and peace 17:17  |  flashman 16/02/07
  53.   tosefta "assad pere was sincere" 17:20  |  flashman 16/02/07
  54.   assad pere thought he would like to make peace 17:24  |  flashman 16/02/07
  55.   And many of the responses here are a response to Segal 17:26  |  Yaakov Sullivan 16/02/07
  56.   tosefta and his confused thoughts on france 17:30  |  flashman 16/02/07
  57.   #38 Gabe1 and logic 17:32  |  Tosefta 16/02/07
  58.   tosefta has repeated the stale joke umpteen times 17:35  |  flashman 16/02/07
  59.   tosefta "too bad liberation movements do not denounce 17:39  |  flashman 16/02/07
  60.   tosefta the mystery for those of us who are not 17:41  |  flashman 16/02/07
  61.   tosefta" the end goal is to conduct fruitful 17:44  |  flashman 16/02/07
  62.   tosefta and "the prisoners agreement" 17:48  |  flashman 16/02/07
  63.   Gabe1 17:48  |  Hubal 16/02/07
  64.   Fools Gold 17:58  |  Danite 16/02/07
  65.   Segal - how much $$ are you getting from PLO? 18:00  |  Judy 16/02/07
  66.   Begin vs. Hamas (Zardos #47) 18:07  |  Tosefta 16/02/07
  67.   Enough negotiations 18:10  |  Anthony W 16/02/07
  68.   Pay the Debt, Make the Peace! 18:24  |  David Steinman 16/02/07
  69.   What it takes... 18:37  |  Katharina 16/02/07
  70.   The guy must be crazy 18:52  |  Richard 16/02/07
  71.   T O S E F T A T O S E F T A---Rah 18:59  |  Gabe1 16/02/07
  72.   T O S E F T A, T O S E F T A #57 Rah.... 19:19  |  Gabe1 16/02/07
  73.   Final Status in a new era 19:32  |  Samuel topen 16/02/07
  74.   Hubal #63 19:52  |  Gabe1 16/02/07
  75.   Danite #64 19:57  |  Gabe1 16/02/07
  76.   Hamas`s purpose is to murder all Jews 20:08  |  Tape recording 16/02/07
  77.   Final Status-disaster for israel, victory for Bush 20:35  |  Voice of Reason 16/02/07
  78.   This Report has wisdom ... 20:51  |  Ernie 16/02/07
  79.   Danite 21:04  |  Ernie 16/02/07
  80.   tosefta knew how to come to terms with reality. 21:11  |  flashman 16/02/07
  81.   Bill 21:14  |  The Messiah 16/02/07
  82.   tosefta "the majority of palestinians are not islamists" 21:17  |  flashman 16/02/07
  83.   tosefta "there is no antidote against evolution" 21:19  |  flashman 16/02/07
  84.   It`s Your Friends You Have To Watch Out For 21:25  |  dave 16/02/07
  85.   Tape recording 21:50  |  Ernie 16/02/07
  86.   More Insanity 22:06  |  Tod Zuckerman 16/02/07
  87.   gabe1 22:18  |  Danite 16/02/07
  88.   Ernie Hello 22:23  |  Danite 16/02/07
  89.   Toseftas faulty logic on parade 22:27  |  Danite 16/02/07
  90.   Concerning Harem al-Sharif ... 22:30  |  Ernie 16/02/07
  91.   Dream, Dream...Dream, Dream, Dream, Oh... 22:55  |  John 16/02/07
  92.   "grab" 23:15  |  tom 16/02/07
  93.   Final status homerun from `The field of dreams` Part 1 23:20  |  TonyL 16/02/07
  94.   G-d and The land" 23:20  |  tiom 16/02/07
  95.   Final status homerun from `The field of dreams` Part 2 23:22  |  TonyL 16/02/07
  96.   *42 OYVEY 23:27  |  Bill. 16/02/07
  97.   Danite 00:00  |  Ernie 17/02/07
  98.   *94 TIOM 00:24  |  Bill. 17/02/07
  99.   Danite #87 00:33  |  Gabe1 17/02/07
  100.   Egypt can give Sinai to the State of Palestine. 00:43  |  Hal 17/02/07
  101.   The writer of this article , Mr Jerome Segal, does make good senc 01:28  |  Aaron 17/02/07
  102.   #26,27,28 .Interesting posts, thank you Tosefta 01:40  |  Anglina 17/02/07
  103.   final status in a new era 01:44  |  jacob t chachkes 17/02/07
  104.   #40 J M Jordan. Well said 01:46  |  Angelina 17/02/07
  105.   Hello Ernie 02:47  |  Danite 17/02/07
  106.   Gabe1 02:50  |  Danite 17/02/07
  107.   Israel vs. Palestine 03:05  |  Albert Feldmann 17/02/07
  108.   Thank you, Anglina #102 03:16  |  Tosefta 17/02/07
  109.   #26 Tosefta, what exactly & where can one find Olmert`s position 04:32  |  Smadar 17/02/07
  110.   #68 David Steinman 04:42  |  ballistic 17/02/07
  111.   #94 Tiom--Boy, oh, boy, you tell it straight 04:46  |  ballistic 17/02/07
  112.   time is running out for israel and zionism 07:37  |  arab 17/02/07
  113.   To negotiate with Abbas? Any deal with ABBAS would bring a paper, 08:06  |  Vittorio 17/02/07
  114.   Let Mr Segal negotiate Maryland, not Jeru- 08:31  |  Vladimir 17/02/07
  115.   Is Segal stupid or suicidal? 10:33  |  J.J. Surbeck 17/02/07
  116.   Well done, Jerome 11:06  |  Clickfool 17/02/07
  117.   Brilliant 14:50  |  Fed Up 17/02/07
  118.   #96 Bill 14:59  |  Baal 17/02/07
  119.   arab 15:12  |  bev 17/02/07
  120.   tosefta and his fan club 16:14  |  israeli 17/02/07
  121.   my name is anglina -smadar 16:19  |  israeli 17/02/07
  122.   tiom that silly post would only impress 16:21  |  zilkha 17/02/07
  123.   DANITE #106 16:24  |  Gabe1 17/02/07
  124.   arab 16:44  |  Danite 17/02/07
  125.   Arab 16:52  |  Gabe1 17/02/07
  126.   #116 THE WINDS BLOW FROM THE SUSSEX DOWNS 17:40  |  paul harris 17/02/07
  127.   zilkha 18:05  |  bev 17/02/07
  128.   Jaffa, Nazareth, Akka, Led, Deir Yassin, Haifa 18:12  |  Hani 17/02/07
  129.   tosefta and anglina -smadar 18:22  |  israeli 17/02/07
  130.   I agree - but we need to involve others 18:26  |  serge 17/02/07
  131.   All silly talkbacks and stop digressing from article`s 18:49  |  Smadar 17/02/07
  132.   Rufus on "Indrajaya" you hit the nail on the head!! 18:53  |  Stright 2 the point 17/02/07
  133.   Olmert`s position (Smadar #109) 19:22  |  Tosefta 17/02/07
  134.   95 TonyL 19:35  |  Mark of Lewiston 17/02/07
  135.   Olmert`s position (Smadar #109) 20:08  |  Tosefta 17/02/07
  136.   The peace process 20:29  |  KUTW 17/02/07
  137.   Olmert`s position (Smadar #109) 20:31  |  Tosefta 17/02/07
  138.   Grab the chance? E.Barak grabbed : PALS RESPONDED BY TERROR! 20:57  |  Vittorio 17/02/07
  139.   Final status -or `final solution? 21:34  |  VICTIMSof ARABTERROR 17/02/07
  140.   The true face of the pal State 21:59  |  KUTW 17/02/07
  141.   Accept prior agreements 22:00  |  racon-tour 17/02/07
  142.   #4 Choni Davidowitz 22:02  |  Racon-tour 17/02/07
  143.   Final Status 22:06  |  kevin 17/02/07
  144.   #120#121#128 Israeli 22:11  |  Racon-tour 17/02/07
  145.   The Temple Mountain?s ownership 22:14  |  KUTW 17/02/07
  146.   *118 BAAL 23:20  |  Bill. 17/02/07
  147.   you are a traitor! 00:07  |  Leon 18/02/07
  148.   Why negotiate? Arabs still demand Arafat`s "final solution" 00:19  |  Avner 18/02/07
  149.   #11 bill 01:11  |  Racon-tour 18/02/07
  150.   #133,#135,#137 Tosefta - No, I believe you`re mistaken 01:40  |  Smadar 18/02/07
  151.   Danite, greetings 02:33  |  Ibrahim 18/02/07
  152.   The Cynical Israeli Approach. 02:35  |  Ibrahim 18/02/07
  153.   Demonizing Jews isnt going to bring permanent peace any closer 02:41  |  Hal 18/02/07
  154.   What one wants may not come true, but.. (Smadar #150) 04:21  |  Tosefta 18/02/07
  155.   Ibrahim Hello 06:46  |  Danite 18/02/07
  156.   KUTW 10:53  |  Fritz 18/02/07
  157.   Re: sandra chitayat 02:36  |  Steve 19/02/07
  158.   Final status = end of Israel 07:43  |  benji 19/02/07
  159.   And Compensation for Jews from Arab lands? 12:43  |  Zak Lamont 19/02/07
  160.   With Abbas or with real Palestinians? 23:49  |  Fortuna Benmayor 18/05/08
 Read & React
Is Israel breaking its own taboo on talks with Hamas?
Responses: 72
Egypt: If Israel agrees, Gaza truce could begin tomorrow
Responses: 120
Lebanon government challenges Hezbollah on weapons arsenal
Responses: 67
Bush says he's hopeful for democratic reform in Middle East
Responses: 58


More Headlines
23:49 Bin Laden: All Muslims must help end Gaza siege
21:22 Egypt: If Israel agrees, Gaza truce could begin tomorrow
23:50 Obama: Mideast peace deal likely if sides show compromise
21:00 Mazuz: Ruling on Olmert probe unlikely in next few weeks
22:38 MK Beilin: Abbas says he'll quit if peace deal not set in 6 months
21:24 ROSNER'S GUESTS: Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff
21:28 Google co-founder: My family left Russia because of anti-Semitism
19:06 Gaza cafe bombed amid crackdown on Western pop culture
18:38 Bush says he's hopeful for democratic reform in Middle East
20:41 Negev leaders: We'll force government to stop Qassam fire
21:32 Pelosi: I trust all presidential candidates in regard to Israel
16:44 IDF removes W. Bank roadblock, first in series of gestures
20:13 Donors look to stimulate Palestinian economy despite siege
Previous Editions
Special Offers
Advertisement
Dead Sea Products
Buy Dead Sea mineral skin care and beauty products. Coupon code Haaretz for 10% off.
The Terraces
Your Ultimate Coastal Address On Nitza Boulevard, North Netanya
Together Celebrating Israel's 60th
The Jewish Agency and You - together making history
Pardes Institute Summer Sessions
http://www.pardes.org.il/
Free the Palestinians from:
Corrupt Kleptocracy, Tyrannical Theocracy, Abysmal Anarchy
Fattal Hotel Chain
Perfectly located hotels on best resorts of Israel.
ISRAEL BONDS Build Israel
Israel bonds - a multi-purpose way to celebrate Israel's 60th
Eldan Rent a Car
Israel's leading car rental company offers you a 20% discount on all online reservations
Junkyard
Junk a car - get free towing nationwide and a tax-deductible receipt
Home | TV | Print Edition | Diplomacy | Opinion | Arts & Leisure | Sports | Jewish World | Underground | Site rules |
Real Estate in Israel
Haaretz.com, the online edition of Haaretz Newspaper in Israel, offers real-time breaking news, opinions and analysis from Israel and the Middle East. Haaretz.com provides extensive and in-depth coverage of Israel, the Jewish World and the Middle East, including defense, diplomacy, the Arab-Israeli conflict, the peace process, Israeli politics, Jerusalem affairs, international relations, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, the Palestinian Authority, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, the Israeli business world and Jewish life in Israel and the Diaspora.
© Copyright  Haaretz. All rights reserved