Subscribe to Print Edition | Tue., November 06, 2007 Cheshvan 25, 5768 | | Israel Time: 17:35 (EST+7) web haaretz.com   Back to Homepage Print Edition Diplomacy Defense Arts & Leisure Real Estate Jewish World National Advertising Magazine Week's End Business Opinion Rosner's Domain Anglo File Books Travel

del.icio.us Digg It!  new Last update - 07:58 05/02/2007 New study: Iran seeks 'nuclear ambiguity,' likely to act 'logically' By Yossi Melman, Haaretz Correspondent A new study on Iran and its nuclear program suggests that Tehran "is seeking to adopt a policy of nuclear ambiguity." The study, authored by Ephraim Kam and a team of researchers at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, will be presented at a conference on Wednesday on Iran's nuclear program, its implications and options for dealing with it. According to the study, as Iran formulates its nuclear policy, it will have to decide on one of three options: a) to remain on the verge of acquiring nuclear weapons - to avoid developing a nuclear arsenal immediately, but developing the capability to do so on short notice; b) to adopt a policy of nuclear ambiguity - to produce nuclear weapons, but to avoid making their existence public and testing them, in the hope of averting further pressure on Tehran; and c) to produce nuclear weapons, announce their existence and possibly also to carry out a test. The study suggests that Iran will prefer the second option "which appears most likely, at least in the first stage." Advertisement The third option is the "most problematic one for Iran," say the researchers. The tendency of the regime of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to challenge the international community and establish facts on the ground in nuclear matters, while ignoring international public opinion, and the chance that Iran could be influenced by the North Korean example - these factors may, however, lead to the last, more threatening possibility. The study also evaluates the chances that a military operation may be undertaken against the nuclear installations in Iran, and concludes that "this is a very problematic and complex operation that involves many risks including an open-ended Iranian response. Moreover, a military operation is not guaranteed. At this stage the political conditions are also not ripe for an operation, so long as the diplomatic efforts continue." Nonetheless, the report notes that the military option is important and preparations for it should continue because of the pressure it places on Tehran - "in view of the fact that the two states that do not reject this option are the U.S. and Israel." The report also notes that a nuclear-armed Iran has serious implications for Israel because "for the first time an enemy state will have the technical capability of striking a mortal blow against Israel, particularly in view of the Iranian regime's specific call for the destruction of Israel. In essence, this combination holds an existential threat for Israel." However, the report states that own must assume that a nuclear Iran will act logically, rationally evaluating the price and risks involved in its actions, and will not act out of religious-ideological motives. If one make this assumption, then one appreciates that Iran's motives for acquiring nuclear weapons "are defensive, [and are to be used] against Iraq in the past and against the U.S. today." Such an explanation can be added to its strategic goals of achieving regional hegemony and to bolster the domestic position of the Iranian regime. "It is reasonable to assume that also in the future Iran will opt to retain this type of weapons as a final card to use against extreme threats, and that the elimination of Israel is not considered to be an essential interest worthy of using such weapons." The report also assumes that the likelihood that Iran will transfer nuclear arms to terrorist organization is minimal. For Israel, the study's advice is to bolster its means of deterrence. Among other measures, this includes making a clear and convincing message that if Israel is attacked by nuclear weapons, it will still retain a counter-strike capability "with severe consequences." In addition, emphasis should be placed on the likelihood that a nuclear strike against Israel may fail because of the performance of the Arrow anti-ballistic missile system, which is one of the elements that are meant to ensure that Israel can mount a counter-strike if necessary. Bookmark to del.icio.us Envoy to the stars With a revival of political satire, Fairuz takes stage in Amman. Diaspora meddlers Should U.S. Jews have a voice in shaping Israel's policies?   1.   Ahmadinejad is to arrogant to play by nuclear ambiguity 06:35  |  David G 05/02/07   2.   Who dares put Israel at risk?! 07:10  |  Yameen 05/02/07   3.   this sort of thinking means mideast nukes proliferation 07:43  |  Joseph E . 05/02/07   4.   Ummmm 07:56  |  Persian Kitty 05/02/07   5.   Ahmadinejad logical? Sure, as the ultimate suicide bomber! 08:06  |  Born In The USA 05/02/07   6.   New Study in the Obvious 08:27  |  Michael 05/02/07   7.   Iran`s Ruling Clergy Is Allergic To Conventional & Nuclear Pain! 08:36  |  Lavi 05/02/07   8.   Another Biased Report 09:03  |  Paulo 05/02/07   9.   it is the entire regime 09:24  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 05/02/07   10.   No military strike from anyone on Iran 09:33  |  Clickfool 05/02/07   11.   A sound and sensible study 09:40  |  Clickfool 05/02/07   12.   For Yameen # 2 - live with it 09:44  |  Clickfool 05/02/07   13.   Still, Ahmadinejad is not an idiot... 09:56  |  Yevhen 05/02/07   14.   What`s Good for the Goose 10:02  |  Clickfool 05/02/07   15.   For Cipora, who doesn`t like the Iranian regime # 9 10:08  |  Clickfool 05/02/07   16.   For Joseph E, who`s against nuclear proliferation 10:11  |  Clickfool 05/02/07   17.   Daft ole Fake Clickfool wakes up - good morning, Rupert # 14 10:28  |  Clickfool 05/02/07   18.   Looks like Clickfool had his Wheaties this Morning 10:31  |  David 05/02/07   19.   Well, we need to bury THIS report, right guys? 10:39  |  Johnboy 05/02/07   20.   An Existential Threat 10:49  |  Rupert 05/02/07   21.   There you are, Rupert (Fake Clickfool) # 20 11:12  |  Clickfool 05/02/07   22.   Did Iran or did not declared war with Israel? 11:18  |  Yevhen 05/02/07   23.   Incredible 11:43  |  j10 05/02/07   24.   No, it didn`t, Yehven # 22 11:53  |  Clickfool 05/02/07   25.   STUDY??? WHAT IS THIS? A COUPLE OF 13:12  |  Robert 05/02/07   26.   #24 real Clickety fool 13:20  |  Itsik 05/02/07   27.   AHMADINAJAD 13:40  |  DANNY. 05/02/07   28.   #23 j10 thinks it "incredible" that others won`t swallow the hook 14:01  |  Johnboy 05/02/07   29.   Iran nuke threat 14:06  |  Brod 05/02/07   30.   Ahmadinejad is to arrogant to play by nuclear ambiguity? 14:31  |  Mark Lincoln 05/02/07   31.   to paulo of lisbon and december 5 1496 decree banishing the jews 14:32  |  mb 05/02/07   32.   To Danny No. 27: HE IS CRAZY 14:34  |  Natan 05/02/07   33.   to paulo of lisbon and ahmanijad dream 14:38  |  mb 05/02/07   34.   to paulo of lisbon - portuguese lies to kill jews. 14:49  |  mb 05/02/07   35.   to paulo - portuguese lies - cont 14:54  |  mb 05/02/07   36.   Ahmadinejad is the last president of the theocracy 15:14  |  Shlomo from Tel-Aviv 05/02/07   37.   Iran`s quandary. 15:17  |  sandra chitayat 05/02/07   38.   Lack of diplomacy 15:21  |  Yevhen 05/02/07   39.   to paulo of lisbon - jews in portugal 15:32  |  mb 05/02/07   40.   Iran and the United States. 15:35  |  sandra chitayat 05/02/07   41.   to paulo of lisbon - PEOPLE OF THE WORLD SEE WHAT PORTUGAL DID! 15:39  |  mb 05/02/07   42.   Catching The Same Fish With The Same Bait 15:43  |  Tony Anthony 05/02/07   43.   #28 16:05  |  j10 05/02/07   44.   to paulo of lisbon - in memorian of captain Barros 16:06  |  mb 05/02/07   45.   #14: unless the gander gets cooked 16:07  |  Paul Freedman 05/02/07   46.   #42--Israel`s considerations not West`s 16:11  |  Paul Freedman 05/02/07   47.   Iran and its nukes 19:21  |  A Christian 05/02/07   48.   To Natan on Danny and more 22:06  |  Persian Kitty 05/02/07

Today Online Livni to Egyptian FM: Put a stop to weapons smuggling into Gaza Responses: 97 Burston: Hijacking the Holocaust in order to fight abortions Responses: 54 Rosner: Should U.S. Jews help shape Israel's policies? Responses: 43 Netanyahu: No PA partner for peace, PM's partner is virtual Responses: 73 Former U.S. Pres. Bill Clinton remembers Yitzhak Rabin Responses: 47 Haaretz TV: Mentally challenged girl kicked out of day care Responses: 64 Rosner's Domain * American Jewish philanthropists no longer support "Israel" * Americans split on military action against Iran (WTR) * Rosner's Guest: The significance of Pharaoh's daughter * Poll: A "regional peace settlement" before Bush leaves office? More Headlines 16:59 Olmert: Annapolis summit set for end of November 16:57 Peres, Abbas to address Turkish parliament in Ankara next week 17:30 IDF soldier killed in jeep crash while patrolling Gaza border 15:44 Livni to Egyptian FM: Put a stop to weapons smuggling into Gaza 15:55 Fragment of ancient parchment from Bible given to Jerusalem scholars 17:01 IDF: Nearly 28% of Israeli males avoided conscription in 2007 16:46 Top Military Intelligence official warns of nuclear Iran in 2 years 15:56 Man indicted for molesting evacuee children during Lebanon war 14:29 Defense Minister Barak says time not right for Gaza offensive 17:09 Bill Clinton remembers Yitzhak Rabin, his friend and partner Previous Editions Select Day 05 nov 04 nov 02 nov 01 nov 31 oct 30 oct 29 oct 28 oct 26 oct 25 oct 24 oct 23 oct

Special Offers Advertisement learn Hebrew online with israel's best teachers. Sign up for a trial lesson today Invest in Macedonia New Business Heaven in Europe Long-term Israel programs MASA is your gateway. More programs. More grants. Eldan Rent a Car Israel's leading car rental company offers you a 20% discount on all online reservations JOIN FREE AT JDATE.COM The most popular online Jewish dating community in the world! Explore the possibilities! Click Here! Dead Sea Salt Beauty and skin care from the Dead Sea. Coupon code HAARETZ for 10% off! Junkyard Junk a car - get free towing nationwide and a tax-deductible receipt. Holiday Inn and Crown Plaza Israel Lowest internet rate Guaranteed at ichotelsgroup.com !

Home | TV | Print Edition | Diplomacy | Opinion | Arts & Leisure | Sports | Jewish World | Underground | Site rules |

© Copyright  Haaretz. All rights reserved