By last night it was clear: Maj. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi almost certainly will be the next chief of staff. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will not meet Defense Minister Amir Peretz about the appointment today, but Olmert's aides say he will not object to Ashkenazi. Barring a last-minute change, the two will agree on the appointment within a few days and the cabinet will be asked to approve it perhaps already next week.

Peretz has not announced it officially but his heart is set on Ashkenazi as next chief of staff. Assuming Peretz's days as defense minister are numbered, this appointment is likely to be the only stamp he will leave on the defense establishment. It is a worthy appointment, but probably won't be associated with Peretz for long.

Ashkenazi is not "Peretz's man." He was in the picture long before Olmert dreamed of appointing Peretz defense minister. Had Ariel Sharon not put his whole weight behind Dan Halutz in the previous face-off for chief of staff in 2005, Ashkenazi may have been appointed then.

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Immediately after Halutz's appointment, Ashkenazi said bitterly that Sharon and then defense minister Shaul Mofaz had not given him a fair chance. But he terminated his service without slamming the door or protesting openly. His relations with Olmert improved at the time.

The prime minister angered his defense minister with the publicized consultation round he conducted last week about the chief of staff's appointment. But two things are holding a crisis with Peretz at bay: one, Olmert doesn't object to Ashkenazi's appointment; two, legally Peretz is right - the law leaves the choice of chief of staff to him (although the cabinet must vote and ratify his recommendation, which is customarily made in accordance with the prime minister.)

The second candidate, Moshe Kaplinsky, the deputy chief of staff, believes his chances for the post have dwindled. He has already announced that he will resign from the IDF if he loses in the showdown. A few of Kaplinsky's friends, members of Sharon's "ranch forum," are lobbying for him, but this will probably not convince Peretz. In addition, the shadow of the Winograd Committee hovers over him.

Even if Kaplinsky emerges pure as snow from the Winograd Committee, Olmert and Peretz will have difficulty appointing the No. 2 man in the army before the committee's report, in view of Halutz's resignation. The failed war in Lebanon appears to have tainted him as well. Were it not for the war, Halutz would have retired in a year and a half and Kaplinsky would have been considered his natural heir