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New rules for the Middle East game
By Raanan Eliaz

The current discussions about the future of American foreign policy in the Middle East touch directly upon Israel-U.S. relations. U.S. policymakers, however, have not yet given enough consideration to the unprecedented weight that the European Union increasingly exerts in the region. In the case of Israel as well as on other U.S. fronts, no durable progress is reachable without the agreement, not to say the active involvement, of the slowly uniting Europe.

A historic window of opportunity may be brought on by the development of the EU over the past decades, the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East to include a nuclear threat, and the volatility of the U.S. role in the region. In view of this, the United States should realize the strategic value of gradually integrating Israel into the European Union. Although a full membership is not in the cards at the moment, the EU becoming Israel's second closest strategic ally, alongside the U.S., is in everybody's best interests. Over the next decade or two, relations between the U.S., the EU and Israel should be progressively formulated anew.

Despite America's significant role in facilitating Israel's just struggle to survive, it has failed to ensure the county's lasting longevity and independence. Regardless of the Bush administration's intentions, Israel's strategic position has deteriorated on multiple fronts. It is still the most powerful in terms of military might, but present day Israel has to rely on America more than ever before in order to secure its political standing and its military superiority. Most tragically, Israel's peace offerings of its scarce land to Egyptian and Palestinian neighbors have not led it to better integration into the Middle East. The current Iranian nuclear threat only materializes a wider, existential fragility that Israel has failed to eliminate.
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Although the U.S. still has the power to exert a unique leverage that no other outside party can, it is becoming clear that in order to stabilize the Middle East, the U.S. simply cannot go it alone. Increasingly, the EU complements and in some cases, assumes, the U.S.'s traditional third party role in the region. For example, on the macro level, the EU took on a leading role in the Middle East Quartet and as chief negotiator with Iran, and on the micro level, the EU has an active presence in southern Lebanon and Gaza, and has, on several occasions, attempted to revive negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians.

Europe has a clear interest in stabilizing its backyard and it can offer incentives and exert leverages the U.S. cannot. Nevertheless, the dialogue between Israel and the EU lacks strategic vision and sincere willingness to work together. In dealing with Europe, Israel is preoccupied with planning preventive measures instead of embarking proactively in shaping its future. The EU, still heavily engaged in solving internal crises, cannot follow through its own foreign policy initiatives. Only the U.S. can help both parties to "shift gears."

Such paradigmatic change in course will involve the creation of a durable transatlantic Middle East policy that will introduce new rules to the region's game. With the required massive financial, political and military investment, all pragmatic Arab countries would be encouraged to work together with Israel toward an agreed-upon settlement. Creative solutions may include offering NATO-like regional security guarantees, the establishment of sustainable economic incentives, and multilateral territorial swaps.

It is doubtful whether the current U.S. administration, alongside weak leaderships in the Middle East and an unfocused EU, will be able to promote such an ambitious agenda. But in order for this positive dramatic shift to assume shape over the next generation, now is the time to start preparing the ground.



Raanan Eliaz, former Coordinator at the Israeli National Security Council, is currently a Ph.D. candidate at the Catholic University of Leuven, Belgium, and a consultant on European-Israeli Affairs.
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  1.   PhD THESIS? 11:31  |  indrajaya 19/01/07
  2.   Absolutely nothing learnt from history 11:34  |  Jonathan S 19/01/07
  3.   its TIME THEY MINDED THEIR OWN BUSINESS 11:45  |  paul harris 19/01/07
  4.   New rules for the ME game 11:54  |  Jean-Paul Doguet 19/01/07
  5.   If the IDF had killed fewer people "Israel`s peace offerings of 12:50  |  Apartheid 19/01/07
  6.   I`m not sure if it is a good idea... 12:57  |  tuairimiocht 19/01/07
  7.   New rules Raanan Eliaz 12:59  |  Zaneco 19/01/07
  8.   34 EU 13:38  |  Lynn 19/01/07
  9.   Jonathan S 13:41  |  Lynn 19/01/07
  10.   THE DIFFERENCE 13:47  |  Brant 19/01/07
  11.   THE DIFFERENCE 13:47  |  Brant 19/01/07
  12.   re: Paul Harris #3 13:51  |  Paulo 19/01/07
  13.   Strategic Alliances 13:55  |  BenAbuzaglo 19/01/07
  14.   paul harris 14:18  |  Andreas 19/01/07
  15.   SCARE LAND - LOL 14:18  |  ISHMAEL ISHMAEL 19/01/07
  16.   Isreal`s background would be the problem 14:25  |  Shlomi 19/01/07
  17.   Big-Israel as a member of the EU 14:53  |  Fritz 19/01/07
  18.   A question to Andreas 15:00  |  Jonathan S 19/01/07
  19.   An answer to Lynn 15:12  |  Jonathan S 19/01/07
  20.   It seems that Europe wants to sacrifice Israel to IslamoFascists, 15:17  |  Vittorio 19/01/07
  21.   #12 DO YOU HAVE THE SAME CONCERN FOR CHECHYNA PAULO ?? 15:27  |  paul harris 19/01/07
  22.   To the EU 15:47  |  Gee 19/01/07
  23.   EU MUST be a factor 15:59  |  Ronnie Wolman 19/01/07
  24.   A prerequisite 16:01  |  Nimrod Mani 19/01/07
  25.   Eurabia will not be good for Israel 16:02  |  Ben Uziel 19/01/07
  26.   Short time for a deal with Europe 16:11  |  Tosefta 19/01/07
  27.   The Twilight Zone. Am I Mything Something ? 16:17  |  Klaudia 19/01/07
  28.   #15 sherlock ishmael and the STOLEN LAND MYSTERY? 16:33  |  paul harris 19/01/07
  29.   New rules for Klaudia 16:50  |  Jean-Paul Doguet 19/01/07
  30.   EU and Israel 17:10  |  Gee 19/01/07
  31.   A direct result 17:14  |  Mark Lincoln 19/01/07
  32.   The EU could help resolve the Middle East crisis 17:18  |  Stephen Murray 19/01/07
  33.   Iran and the EU 17:56  |  Ronnie Wolman 19/01/07
  34.   #18 Jonathan S 18:11  |  Andreas 19/01/07
  35.   # 29- Jean-Paul.... We Had a Blizzard Here in Canada... 18:12  |  Klaudia 19/01/07
  36.   Who has elected Solana? 18:16  |  Jonathan S 19/01/07
  37.   To all the islamophobes out there... 18:17  |  tuairimiocht 19/01/07
  38.   # 29- Jean-Paul... Do a little Reading , Jean- Paul... 18:34  |  Klaudia 19/01/07
  39.   EU and Israel already benefit from cooperation... 18:43  |  tuairimiocht 19/01/07
  40.   # 36- Jonathan S. 18:51  |  Klaudia 19/01/07
  41.   An answer for Andreas 18:53  |  Jonathan S 19/01/07
  42.   # 25 Don`t worry... 18:55  |  Edith 19/01/07
  43.   36 Jonathan S 19:16  |  Andreas 19/01/07
  44.   #36 Jonathan S 19:39  |  Andreas 19/01/07
  45.   Europe Is A Paper Tiger 19:39  |  Nick 19/01/07
  46.   An answer for Klaudia, 19:48  |  Jonathan S 19/01/07
  47.   New rules for Klaudia 20:09  |  Jean-Paul Doguet 19/01/07
  48.   28. stolen ? look in your pocket 20:23  |  flimflam 19/01/07
  49.   New roles in the world 20:26  |  shaun 19/01/07
  50.   Jonathan S. vs Andreas 20:36  |  Klaudia 19/01/07
  51.   As soon as money runs out in EU,EU will crack like thin ice. 20:56  |  Gimpel the Fool 19/01/07
  52.   #50Nothing new for the EU!!!! 21:11  |  Gimpel the Fool 19/01/07
  53.   Sayed nasrallah on air 21:12  |  imad 19/01/07
  54.   A remark for Andreas 21:15  |  Jonathan S 19/01/07
  55.   Gimpel the Fool is wise 21:24  |  Jake 19/01/07
  56.   #46 Jonathon 21:41  |  Mark 19/01/07
  57.   European MP’s in action 21:57  |  Jonathan S 19/01/07
  58.   #50 Thanks for your concern, judge Klaudia 22:05  |  Andreas 19/01/07
  59.   An answer to Mark 22:09  |  Jonathan S 19/01/07
  60.   #4 Jean-Paul Doguet 22:22  |  tadchase 19/01/07
  61.   Kippa 22:28  |  Andreas 19/01/07
  62.   #32 STEPHEN FAILS TO RECOGNISE A SOVEREIGN COUNTRY. 23:51  |  paul harris 19/01/07
  63.   Reply to Tadchase 00:00  |  Jean-Paul Doguet 20/01/07
  64.   Reply to Tadchase (II) 00:05  |  Jean-Paul Doguet 20/01/07
  65.   #23 Ronnie 00:15  |  Lynn 20/01/07
  66.   # 35 Klaudia 00:34  |  Lynn 20/01/07
  67.   # 29 Jean Paul 00:39  |  Lynn 20/01/07
  68.   re: Vittorio #20 00:44  |  Paulo 20/01/07
  69.   #25 Eurabia and Israel 00:49  |  Lynn 20/01/07
  70.   Lynn: ME and EU 01:00  |  Ronnie Wolman 20/01/07
  71.   An answer to Lynn 01:27  |  Jonathan S 20/01/07
  72.   # 70 Ronnie Wolman 01:36  |  Lynn 20/01/07
  73.   #63,64 Jean Paul 02:59  |  tadchase 20/01/07
  74.   Not that I`m an avid football fan ... but U.S. has carried the 06:01  |  Smadar 20/01/07
  75.   Weak reasoning 10:08  |  Ron 20/01/07
  76.   Wrong reasoning 12:12  |  Jean-Paul Doguet 20/01/07
  77.   Lynn the EU`s perspective 15:01  |  Ronnie Wolman 20/01/07
  78.   Ronnie Wolman 15:03  |  CHGODMK 20/01/07
  79.   Forget about EU... 15:03  |  Infidel 20/01/07
  80.   Jean-Paul Doguet: EU 15:07  |  CHGODMK 20/01/07
  81.   Jean-Paul Doguet #76 15:10  |  Gee 20/01/07
  82.