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Iran Sanctions / A difficult decision is approaching
By Yossi Melman

This is a nice Christmas present for the United States, the West and Israel. Perhaps the wrapping isn't so fancy, but the UN Security Council resolution is undoubtedly a great achievement for American diplomacy and especially for the European Union. Because until now, the U.S. did not have enough supporters in the International Atomic Energy Agency to pass a firm resolution against Iran.

The lukewarm reports by IAEA director Mohamed ElBaradei prevented any chances of such a resolution. Meanwhile, Russia and China led a policy of delays to prevent the IAEA from declaring Iran a country that violates its agreements.

IAEA and the European Union preferred to negotiate with Iran, hoping it would agree to suspend its uranium enrichment on the way to achieving nuclear weapons.

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The Iranians, under former president Mohammed Khatami, agreed to a temporary suspension, but in fact used this and the negotiations to divert attention and advance their nuclear program.

Only in February did European diplomacy and American concessions persuade Russia and China to join the IAEA denunciation and transfer the issue to the Security Council. But since that point, it took almost a year to agree on a draft.

This time, the delay was also due to the suspiciousness, hesitancy and mainly the interests of China and Russia, which are not in keeping with those of the U.S. and the West. They agreed on a modified version, but it is very far from what the U.S. wants. However, this is the first time a resolution sanctioning Iran for its nuclear program has been adopted. The sanctions do not apply to the reactor being built by Russia in Bushehr. But all the experts already know that this reactor is not the problem: Russia is committed to supervising the nuclear fuel.

The sanctions will make it difficult for Iran to obtain equipment, raw materials and technology to put together its first nuclear bomb. They also give the international community's seal of approval to the process underway. Several countries have already imposed sanctions on sales of equipment and materials that are intended ostensibly for civic purposes, but actually have military applications. The sanctions also place the international community on a clear collision course with Iran.

These sanctions -- as well as future ones -- still may not pave the way for international agreement on military action against Iran. However, the process has its own dynamics whose results are hard to foresee at this stage. The only thing clear is that a difficult decision is approaching -- when Iran has the technological ability and knowhow to enrich uranium and produce, within two or three years, fissile materials, the vital, almost final stage in producing nuclear weapons.

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