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High noon at Manara Square
By Avi Issacharoff

RAMALLAH - The Palestinian civil war and the conflicts between Fatah and Hamas reached a new low this week with the murder of the three brothers: 10-year-old Usama, 6-year-old Ahmed and 3-year-old Salam. They were shot and killed on their way to school in Gaza during an attempt to assassinate their father, Baha Balousha, a senior intelligence officer identified with Fatah.

Focused in the Gaza Strip, this war does not look like a head-on clash between two camps, but rather like a chain of small events: assassinations, murders, explicit and implicit threats and the like. The security chaos in the territories has become the No. 1 cause of death in the Strip, along with Israeli actions.

About 330 Palestinians have been killed since the start of 2006 in the West Bank and Gaza, as a result of what the independent Palestinian Committee for Human Rights defines as "violent chaos." Not all of these people were killed in the context of the political strife between the camps, but in light of the large number of armed gangs that act sometimes in the service of the factions and sometimes on behalf of the clans - it has become hard to distinguish between the concepts "anarchy" and "civil war."

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Each time it seems that the intra-Palestinian war has reached the point where red lines have been crossed, the Palestinian politicians succeed in preventing a deterioration into all-out war. "People have a short memory," says one journalist in Gaza. "Who remembers the previous assassinations? The murder of the children will also disappear from the Gazan memory, at least until the next incident that is liable to be even worse."

Early on Wednesday morning the Palestinian mini-"civil war" reached quiet Ramallah as well. Several Hamas activists who were hanging pictures of Sheikh Ahmed Yassin on walls in the city encountered some members of the Al-Aqsa Brigades - the military arm of the Fatah - led by one of the founders of the Brigades, Khaled Shawish. The Fatah people shot at the knees of one of the Hamas men and, brandishing their weapons, abducted his colleagues and transferred them to a Palestinian Authority jail.

At noon, Shawish and his people went out for another patrol at Manara Square, only a few minutes after a procession of several dozen little children that Fatah had organized in protest against the killing of the three children in Gaza, had passed by there. The children waved Palestinian flags and carried posters with morbid pictures of the three brothers' corpses. However, it appeared that they did not understand that their participation in the procession was part of the struggle between Fatah and Hamas over the future of the territories.

The children dispersed and all of the attention of the passersby focused on Shawish and his companions. Teenagers gazed evident admiration at the armed men, heroes of the street, who poured out of their jeep in a manner reminiscent of action films. In the vehicle were five activists of the organization, all of them masked, carrying weapons and wearing flak jackets. The aim of the Al-Aqsa men at high noon at Manara Square was to send a message to Hamas: Every time our people are attacked in Gaza, you will pay the price here in the West Bank.

Meanwhile, back in Gaza, on the day after the murder of the three children, Mohammed Dahlan - who had been authorized by Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) to coordinate among the security mechanisms - had ordered the commanders of the forces under the chairman's authority to spread their people out in the Strip's streets. This was a challenge to the Hamas, the meaning of which was: We in Fatah are ready for a face-off.

But all of these messages did not cause Hamas to show any signs of caving in or surrendering. The Islamic organization knows that in military conflict against the Fatah in Gaza, it will have the upper hand. In addition, the promises of a quarter-of-a-million dollars in aid from Iran have given the Hamas an economic backbone that makes a government of technocrats not headed by Hamas unnecessary. The organization will continue to call for the establishment of a unity government, but henceforth only on its own terms. It no longer needs Abu Mazen or Fatah to get rid of the international boycott of the PA - on condition of course that the money really does arrive in Gaza. And at this stage it is not clear how this is supposed to happen.

A handful of dollars

About half a year ago there was an in-depth discussion in Hamas as to the question of the Iranian's financial aid. Already then it was clear that the international siege was making the activity of the Hamas government difficult, even though Tehran was promising millions. The head of the Hamas faction in the parliament, Salah al-Bardawil, told Haaretz at the time that there was a disagreement in the organization over whether to take the money. It was clear that the step would have a price: Hamas would be associated, in the international mind, to the "axis of evil" and Iran would want to "advise" the organization in its decisions.

However, since then it has become clear that Hamas has left principles aside and has concentrated on the money. More than once, Egyptian elements have charged that, in return for a handful of dollars that Iran transferred to the Hamas, Khaled Meshal and his associates scuttled a deal to release Palestinian prisoners in return for Gilad Shalit.

Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh's announcement of Iran's agreement to transfer $250 million to his government in 2007 symbolized the process that Hamas has undergone during its period in government. The organization that had tried after its election to parliament to preserve its ties with the Iranian-Syrian axis in parallel to its relations with Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, has formed a strategic alliance with the "Persians," as Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has called them. Senior Hamas people have been declared unwelcome not only in Jordan - where they have organized terror cells - but also in Saudi Arabia. However, the Egyptians are still trying to maintain the appearance of "business as usual" and have not cut off ties with Hamas. Of the $250 million, about $100 million will go directly to Hamas. The organization will be able to further strengthen its military might in the Gaza Strip, along with enlarging the social-welfare institutions, which will increase popular support for it.

However, despite the serious implications of the Iranian aid for the future of Fatah, in Abu Mazen's organization there is no panic yet. The chairman is continuing with his habitual hesitancy. Tomorrow he is expected to deliver a speech that has been defined by his aides as historic. However, if there are no last-minute surprises, the PA chairman will not declare early elections, but will only explain the need for them.

Other officials are also refusing to get upset. "What bothers me more than anything else is the Israeli occupation and not the alliance between Tehran and the Hamas," says Jibril Rajoub. "The barrier on the way to my home in Hebron, the separation fence as you call it [he says this in Hebrew in a particularly scornful voice - A.I.], the Jewish settlements - all of these disturb me much more. What do I care about what happens with Iran?"

A student of Israel studies at Al-Quds University and a senior person in Fatah, Rajoub has been accused in the past by Hamas of betrayal and collaboration with Israel. Now he is careful about offending the organization's honor, perhaps because of his bitter experience with the Israeli side. "Our problem is not Hamas. After the murder of the children in Gaza it is clear that an agreement has to be reached with all the factions, so that there will be no more illegal weapons in Gaza. Abu Mazen needs to say 'Enough, I'm fed up.' He has to lead a security move that will return security to the inhabitants of Gaza," he explains.

But Rajoub is in no hurry to express sharp criticism of Abu Mazen. He explains the PA chairman's complicated situation. "He has three options: the establishment of a unity government that will be able to lift the siege, the declaration of a referendum, or early elections. But he cannot achieve any of these without an agreement with Hamas, and therefore he has to embark on direct negotiations with them."

His studies about Israel have made Rajoub very knowledgeable about Zionist issues. He enumerates the countries that Theodor Herzl visited in the context of his efforts to persuade the world that it was necessary for Jews to establish a national home. "He only left out France," explains Rajoub, and then returns to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. "Today the Israelis have to decide: peace and security, or Jewish settlements. Look toward the east and you will see how the Palestinians are living. We have a proverb that says that if your neighbor is hungry, you need to worry."

The Palestinians are hungry.

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