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Gates testimony / Preserving nuclear ambiguity
By Ze'ev Schiff

Israeli officials were shocked by Robert Gates' statement to Congress that Israel has nuclear weapons, and they are worrying over why the U.S. secretary of defense-designate made this statement.

In particular, they want to know two things: First, whether this statement was a private initiative by Gates, or whether he coordinated it with the top levels of the American administration. And second, whether he was implying that since Israel has nuclear weapons, it can deal with any nuclear threat from Iran on its own.

If this was his intention, it would contradict what Prime Minister Ehud Olmert heard from U.S. President George W. Bush at their recent meeting. But Gates has had extensive experience in intelligence and diplomacy, and he does not have a reputation for slips of the tongue on sensitive issues. And while he is not one of Israel's fans, he is also not anti-Israel, and in the past, he has been understanding of Israel's security problems.

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Israeli officials were also shocked by Gates' expression of understanding for Iran's desire to obtain nuclear weapons: He listed all the states near Iran that do have nuclear weapons - Pakistan, India and Israel - and noted that not long ago, Saddam Hussein's Iraq also attempted to acquire the bomb. Furthermore, he said, the United States is a nuclear power, and its forces are deployed in Iran's vicinity throughout the Middle East, and Russia, another nuclear power, is also nearby.

It could be that Gates, a former head of the Central Intelligence Agency, was simply analyzing the situation like an intelligence officer. However, he was not testifying to Congress as an intelligence officer, but rather as a candidate for defense secretary - in which capacity he is supposed to adopt policy positions.

Moreover, Gates said nothing about Iran's other possible reasons for wanting nuclear weapons - a desire for regional influence and prestige and to bolster its ability to foment terrorism. Nor did he stress the fact that Iran's quest for nuclear weapons has been accompanied by repeated threats to eradicate another Middle Eastern country - a fact that gives this quest an offensive rather than a defensive character, and thus makes it unique in nuclear history. And he essentially equated Iran with Israel, albeit indirectly: The former wants nuclear weapons, and the latter already has them.

U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney has also made remarks about Israel's nuclear capabilities in the past, but these were indirect and cautious statements. Gates, in contrast, ended Israel's policy of nuclear ambiguity in one fell swoop - even though Washington has always supported this policy. Indeed, successive U.S. presidents actively pressured Israel to refrain from any action that might result in it being perceived as a nuclear threat, and successive Israeli prime ministers always acceded to this request.

Now, the question is how to respond to Gates' statement. The prevailing view in Jerusalem is that Israel should nevertheless continue its policy of nuclear ambiguity, though in academia and elsewhere there are dissenters who argue that this policy should be discarded. Should Israel publicly confirm Gates' statement, supporters of ambiguity argue, this could send shock waves through the Middle East, and particularly through Sunni Arab states that oppose Iran.

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  1.   the reason behind Gates` comment 10:44  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 10/12/06
  2.   Shock and awe at the Pentagon ? 10:47  |  Swiss (Dino) 10/12/06
  3.   You forgot the most likely possibility 10:59  |  Natallie Durson 10/12/06
  4.   Splitting the hairs (wrongly) 11:11  |  S 10/12/06
  5.   The most likely reason.... 11:15  |  Lebanese admirer 10/12/06
  6.   Question for Cippy # 1 11:23  |  Clickfool 10/12/06
  7.   My 13 year old brother knows Israel has had nukes 11:25  |  matt 10/12/06
  8.   $3, Natallie, no one thinks that Gates is an idiot. 11:29  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 10/12/06
  9.   Still another reason 11:40  |  dana 10/12/06
  10.   Israel has nukes? Now there`s a surprise - not. 11:49  |  Tony Price 10/12/06
  11.   Israel has nukes? Now there`s a surprise - not. 11:49  |  Tony Price 10/12/06
  12.   Two for the price of one 12:00  |  shaun 10/12/06
  13.   Ze`ev Schiff: writer`s block? 12:05  |  rz 10/12/06
  14.   Gates`s statement. 12:06  |  David Nigel Braham 10/12/06
  15.   #6, clicky 12:07  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 10/12/06
  16.   #9 DANA INVOKES THE BLUE FAIRIES AGAIN 12:07  |  paul harris 10/12/06
  17.   PMSL, tell us somethingwe don`t know 12:07  |  viper 10/12/06
  18.   tony price is old hat 12:14  |  becky sharp 10/12/06
  19.   #14 response 12:43  |  ballistic 10/12/06
  20.   Or, Gates could be saying... 12:43  |  Maureen Ann 10/12/06
  21.   THE Message.USA openly accepts Israeli nukes. 12:44  |  PETER SM 10/12/06
  22.   what a big surprise... 13:10  |  Ali 10/12/06
  23.   Why Ambiguity Was Not So Silly -- Wahhabi/Shia Nuke War For Sure 13:10  |  Ovadiah ben Avraham 10/12/06
  24.   he said israel can take care of itself because the usa will not 13:13  |  ralph 10/12/06
  25.   Nucs are a must. 13:30  |  Salima the juweler 10/12/06
  26.   Visual witness? 13:43  |  Dante 10/12/06
  27.   To Ovadiah 13:51  |  David ben Elazar 10/12/06
  28.   Living with a nuclear Iran... 13:56  |  Jack 10/12/06
  29.   Well ,Hurrah for Gates! 14:02  |  BenAbuzaglo 10/12/06
  30.   Who is more dangerous 14:06  |  Bob 10/12/06
  31.   Israel Nuc`s 14:17  |  Dan 10/12/06
  32.   WOULD YOU LABEL GATES AN ANTI-SEMITE??? LIKE CARETR AND BAKER 14:18  |  THE JACKAL 10/12/06
  33.   9Dana, could be 14:34  |  shaun 10/12/06
  34.   Nuts to conventional(26) 14:44  |  shaun 10/12/06
  35.   Maureen Ann-#20-What planet are you from? 14:45  |  Daniel Leopold 10/12/06
  36.   clickfool-#6- a few questions for you 15:00  |  Daniel Leopold 10/12/06
  37.   #28--like neocons talked US into Iraq 15:03  |  ballistic 10/12/06
  38.   ISRAEL`S NUKES 15:11  |  Dr David I. Gros 10/12/06
  39.   The real test for Gates 15:13  |  David James Vickdery 10/12/06
  40.   BEING CUTE IN THE USA AND IN ISRAEL 15:53  |  PhiloEvraios 10/12/06
  41.   Gates Comments 16:15  |  Abe 10/12/06
  42.   Answers to Ze`ev 16:17  |  Mark Lincoln 10/12/06
  43.   Keeping up appearances 16:44  |  JJ 10/12/06
  44.   Reflecting A Basic US Policy Shift 16:51  |  Victor Smolinsky 10/12/06
  45.   Ambiguity served its purpose, long ago 16:58  |  David Teich 10/12/06
  46.   all bluster, smarter to negotiate 16:58  |  Space 10/12/06
  47.   Top secret 17:14  |  Michael N 10/12/06
  48.   Never have so many produced so little 17:31  |  Jonathan S 10/12/06
  49.   the doctrine of plausible deniability 17:44  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 10/12/06
  50.   Israels nukes a reward for Iran support in Iraq 17:48  |  zionist forever 10/12/06
  51.   A new policy of facing reality? 17:50  |  Aaron Levitt 10/12/06
  52.   ambiguity who cares - castrating iran thats 17:51  |  tony aron 10/12/06
  53.   to # 13 17:58  |  Watcher 10/12/06
  54.   Nukes? 18:06  |  Karl Schulze 10/12/06
  55.   Gates` comments 18:09  |  Detlef 10/12/06
  56.   How to respond to Gates 18:12  |  Larry Klein 10/12/06
  57.   Who is responsible? 18:22  |  An Alter Id. 10/12/06
  58.   #41 welcome to the new world 18:24  |  ballistic 10/12/06
  59.   What Gates didn`t say 18:28  |  Giora Sedman 10/12/06
  60.   #49 response; gates with bush blessing 18:28  |  ballistic 10/12/06
  61.   Nothing happened, the paranoia continues 18:32  |  Tosefta 10/12/06
  62.   #44 Thoughtful post 18:34  |  ballistic 10/12/06
  63.   WHAT SILLINESS 18:44  |  Brant 10/12/06
  64.   Plausible deniability 18:49  |  Mark Lincoln 10/12/06
  65.   nobody knew? 18:50  |  margaret 10/12/06
  66.   Detief #55 18:57  |  zionist forever 10/12/06
  67.   It is not cippy. It is not clicky. These are put downs. 19:26  |  Timothy 10/12/06
  68.   The reason is.. 19:30  |  Danite 10/12/06
  69.   mark Lincoln 19:33  |  Danite 10/12/06
  70.   Tosefta is delirious today 19:45  |  Danite 10/12/06
  71.   66 - zionist forever- Gatescomments 19:46  |  tbora 10/12/06
  72.   V A G U E possibility to be weighed / tried. 19:47  |  H.H.M 10/12/06
  73.   What is America`s problem? 19:48  |  Homer Whetzel 10/12/06
  74.   The only way to respond ,is to use them on Iran 19:55  |  Sal 10/12/06
  75.   # 68 Danite 19:55  |  Swiss (Dino) 10/12/06
  76.   no to nukes anywhere - even in israel 20:08  |  Anna 10/12/06
  77.   "Don`t Ask And Don`t Tell" 20:10  |  Victor Smolinsky 10/12/06
  78.   68 Danite - Brilliant Analogy 20:32  |  Mark of Lewiston 10/12/06
  79.   You are wrong Danite 20:48  |  Mark Lincoln 10/12/06
  80.   atom 20:50  |  zeew 10/12/06
  81.   Anna 20:53  |  Mark Lincoln 10/12/06
  82.   #76 Anna - Yes there is a Santa Claus 21:05  |  Karl Schulze 10/12/06
  83.   Cippy..you like to play Dungeons and Dragons 21:34  |  Tim 10/12/06
  84.   Gates truthiness..... 21:41  |  tadchase 10/12/06
  85.   A somewhat peripheral request for clarification .. 21:43  |  The North Wind 10/12/06
  86.   Correction - previous response was to #16 21:54  |  dana 10/12/06
  87.   If it aint broke dont fix it 22:19  |  Bernard Ross 10/12/06
  88.   #85 Mr. Wind 22:42  |  tadchase 10/12/06
  89.   Blow Israel`s cover//// 22:49  |  Joe 10/12/06
  90.   #21 If that is the case, PETER SM 23:01  |  Johnboy 10/12/06
  91.   tadchase # 84 23:15  |  Victor Smolinsky 10/12/06
  92.   # 76 - Anna - Think about the future 23:20  |  Giora Sedman 10/12/06
  93.   We do support you, whetzel! 23:30  |  Milica 10/12/06
  94.   #18 Becky - I got it from my Grand-daughter! Aged 7 23:39  |  Tony Price 10/12/06
  95.   #85 23:39  |  Gil 10/12/06
  96.   nuclear ambiguity= nuclear lie 00:01  |  hollingsworth 11/12/06
  97.   Israel has the A Bomb? 00:09  |  David 11/12/06
  98.   Israeli nukes were old hat long before Vanunu 00:09  |  Mirqa 11/12/06
  99.   From nuclear ambiguity to nuclear reality 00:30  |  RP 11/12/06
  100.   I know the real reason 00:34  |  Wise Syrian 11/12/06
  101.   Gates testimony 01:07  |  n_erber 11/12/06
  102.   to wise syrian 01:22  |  VA 11/12/06
  103.   PRESIDENT CARTER IS ANTI EVERYTHING 01:32  |  TOBIA 11/12/06
  104.   #73 Support by Christians 01:36  |  ballistic 11/12/06
  105.   #74 What do you want them to do? 01:38  |  ballistic 11/12/06
  106.   Sal #74 01:46  |  Guess who 11/12/06
  107.   to back down from confronting Iran 01:54  |  DJStahl 11/12/06
  108.   problem w/deterrence is scale: Iran 4x CA, Israel = Vt 02:08  |  DJStahl 11/12/06
  109.   Answer 02:34  |  David King 11/12/06
  110.   #16 harris - 2nd try - please drop the capitals 02:49  |  dana 11/12/06
  111.   #33 Shaun and # 44 - try again 02:55  |  dana 11/12/06
  112.   Preserving nuclear ambiguity ? For american financial`s help sake 03:45  |  Yankelowitz 11/12/06
  113.   nuclear ambiguity 03:47  |  richard klein 11/12/06
  114.   Will Israel indemnify Vanunu for telling the truth ? 03:56  |  Yankelowitz 11/12/06
  115.   Why did Gates blow Israeli cover? 04:00  |  Jozef 11/12/06
  116.   Wise Syrian - this is the difference between us and you. 04:01  |  Moises 11/12/06
  117.   gates goes public that the world knew 04:06  |  natan friedman 11/12/06
  118.   Gates made a mistake 04:06  |  Moises 11/12/06
  119.   No Harm Done 04:28  |  David Kopel 11/12/06
  120.   israel,nukes & anti-semitism 04:39  |  athan friedmam 11/12/06
  121.   hollingsworth`s paranoya 04:57  |  SG 11/12/06
  122.   Question for Yankelowitz 05:52  |  David Kopel 11/12/06
  123.   #89 AND THE COW JUMPED OVER THE MOON JOHNBOY 05:59  |  paul harris 11/12/06
  124.   Hollingsworth`s Logic 06:14  |  David Kopel 11/12/06
  125.   YOU DON`T HAVE TO MENTION THAT 06:20  |  indrajaya 11/12/06
  126.   YOU DON`T HAVE TO MENTION THAT 06:21  |  indrajaya 11/12/06
  127.   Iran wants an N-bomb badly, let Israel send them a few, direct 06:22  |  Zalman 11/12/06
  128.   Preserving nuclear ambiguity 06:37  |  Gary Moody 11/12/06
  129.   The Realists-WASPs are Anti-Israel 06:41  |  robin 11/12/06
  130.   mark Lincoln#79 06:42  |  Danite 11/12/06
  131.   Re 114 Some confusion about Vanunu 07:28  |  DJStahl 11/12/06
  132.   Gates 07:28  |  Arie Heide 11/12/06
  133.   Re #85, #88 Recent Ahmedinejad quotes 07:36  |  DJStahl 11/12/06
  134.   rascist 07:38  |  arab-christian 11/12/06
  135.   Diplomacy is not the US`s strength 07:59  |  Harry 11/12/06
  136.   Giora and Karl not "Realists" Just cheerleaders for nuclearisrael 08:05  |  Anna 11/12/06
  137.   #133 DJStahl, exactly right 08:34  |  Johnboy 11/12/06
  138.   Face reality, there are no taboos anymore 08:47  |  fritz 11/12/06
  139.   Ambiguity is the key word to Israels politics 08:49  |  fritz 11/12/06
  140.   To # 120 Athan Friedman : KOL HAKAVOD ! 09:13  |  Yankelowitz 11/12/06
  141.   To # 135 Harry : Israel is its best investment in middle east ? 09:19  |  Yankelowitz 11/12/06
  142.   Re #137 more than that 10:31  |  DJStahl 11/12/06
  143.   1# Cipora is 100% right. 10:32  |  Akram Zekaria 11/12/06
  144.   Dana111 10:42  |  shaun 11/12/06
  145.   Clinton started the atempts to disarm Israel 19:26  |  zionist forever 17/12/06
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