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Last update - 07:38 04/12/2006 ANALYSIS: If Siniora falls, so will UNIFIL By Amos Harel, Haaretz Correspondent It is no coincidence that in Jerusalem there is grave concern regarding recent developments in Beirut. Not only is the pressure by pro-Hezbollah and pro-Syrian demonstrators liable to cause the government of Fouad Siniora to collapse, but it may also spark a new civil war in Lebanon. If Siniora's government falls, the Sunni leader will be forced to make concessions in favor of Syria and its allies, and possibly undermine the sole major achievement of Israel in the second Lebanon war - namely, the arrangements made along the border. In response to the criticism of Israel's political and military leadership for failures during the recent war, the answer of the Olmert government has been that the reality on the ground will be our judge. In spite of the many failings, the prime minister did have a convincing argument. Advertisement At war's end, Hezbollah was removed from its positions along the border, and an international peacekeeping force was deployed in southern Lebanon. Israel's gains could have been made during the first week of fighting, which would have saved many lives. Nonetheless, the achievements were apparently real. However, now the stability of Security Council Resolution 1701 is in question. If Hezbollah determines who will form the next government in Lebanon, and even if Siniora emerges from this standoff as a weaker prime minister, the extent of cooperation between the government in Beirut and the UN peacekeeping force, UNIFIL, will be undermined. Nearly four months after the cease-fire went into effect, the two abducted soldiers, for whom Israel went to war, are still not home - and ther e is not even a sign that they are alive. The smuggling of weapons from Syria to Hezbollah, according to Military Intelligence, has resumed and is proceeding at full steam. Southern Lebanon is being rebuilt with Iranian money and the Hezbollah guerrillas, who do not appear now in public wearing fatigues and carrying weapons, are moving about uninterrupted. It is hard to imagine the European troops deployed in southern Lebanon staying there if Hassan Nasrallah signals that Hezbollah intends to target them, as it did French and American forces in 1983. All that is missing now is for Hezbollah to decide to resume holding its positions along the border, as a challenge to Olmert and Israel. The recent developments are of less concern to the Winograd Commission, established by the government to investigate the decisions to go to war and the six years following the IDF's May 2000 pullout from southern Lebanon. Sunday, the committee issued a puzzling announcement, thanking the High Court justices for their support last week in rejecting the petitions for the creation of a state commission of inquiry. The body's members expressed their satisfaction that neither the justices, nor the petitioners, questioned the honesty, qualifications or independence of the investigating body. However, the panel's members would have been less satisfied were they to know about some of the impressions formed by officers that already appeared before them. Some of the latter have said that it is clear that the committee has already determined that Chief of Staff Dan Halutz is its prime target. What emerges is the following: The army rushed to recommend war, without properly preparing itself or having an exit plan. The civilians fell under the spell of the confidence exhibited by the senior military command, and therefore the chief of staff will be the first to pay the price, in a renewed version of the Agranat Report, which followed the Yom Kippur War. Bookmark to del.icio.us   The gift of dignity T.A. charity provides female drug addicts with shower, meal and counseling. Sign of life Hamas leader says Gilad Shalit is still alive after two years in captivity.   1.   Civil War in leb hoped for in Is since 54 02:37  |  Rawi 04/12/06   2.   Analysis: Sad but true 02:45  |  Polybios 04/12/06   3.   WOW 02:56  |  kipperraes 04/12/06   4.   Lebanon`s troubles 03:16  |  * BEN JABO 04/12/06   5.   This was opinion of Harel --why anybody should care 03:34  |  Sal 04/12/06   6.   The Chief of Staff is an excellent Officer 03:42  |  Joseph E . 04/12/06   7.   To Rawi 04:07  |  Walid 04/12/06   8.   Rawi: Interesting, but incorrect 04:26  |  Josh Korn 04/12/06   9.   UNIFIL`s European Toy Soldiers 04:45  |  Brent 04/12/06   10.   Hizballah is setting Israel up for another attack! 04:46  |  Michael M. 04/12/06   11.   Harel..You need to be put in a straight jacket...YESTERDAY. 05:20  |  dave 04/12/06   12.   What is Arab "Moderation?" 05:39  |  Marwan Khoury مروان 04/12/06   13.   Wyy is Israel afraid of Syria 05:42  |  Lebanese 04/12/06   14.   More on Arab "moderates" 05:42  |  Marwan Khoury مروان 04/12/06   15.   Handwriting is on the wall 05:47  |  Future Israelite 04/12/06   16.   Rawi # 1 06:01  |  Yair 04/12/06   17.   Iran and Syria are setting Israel up, but we are setting Iran up. 06:01  |  Michael M. 04/12/06   18.   Corrections 06:15  |  Paulo 04/12/06   19.   #5 Josh Korn-Do you have any information on... 06:38  |  Maureen Ann 04/12/06   20.   If Siniora falls, so will UNIFIL 07:03  |  Galvin Templar 04/12/06   21.   Josh Korn-Rawi 07:48  |  Walid 04/12/06   22.   Labanon will fail as a united state 07:57  |  Bernard Ross 04/12/06   23.   Maybe it won`t be that bad for Israel 08:00  |  Uzi 04/12/06   24.   Nadav, Lola, Cipora-Krystal 08:20  |  Walid 04/12/06   25.   #Walid You have cleared something up for me... 08:25  |  Maureen Ann 04/12/06   26.   only time will tell... 08:38  |  avni 04/12/06   27.   Yair and Nadav 08:51  |  Walid 04/12/06   28.   walid, maureen and other historical revisionists 08:54  |  pete 04/12/06   29.   Josh Korn-Rawi-Walid King Abdallah murdered in 52, why? 08:56  |  Michigan 04/12/06   30.   #24, Walid 09:02  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 04/12/06   31.   Walid re. Marwan Khoury - It is not clear to me what your problem 09:03  |  Nadav 04/12/06   32.   Interesting 09:14  |  Chris 04/12/06   33.   #3 what show of force? 09:26  |  spyguy 04/12/06   34.   Attacking Iran just starts Israel on the path 09:32  |  spyguy 04/12/06   35.   #28 And Count Folke Bernadotte assassination? 09:42  |  Maureen Ann 04/12/06   36.   Walid. You are waisting time questioning my sincerety. 09:55  |  Marwan Khoury مروان 04/12/06   37.   For Michael M, who slept through November 7th # 17 10:19  |  Clickfool 04/12/06   38.   Unifil will go 10:22  |  Natallie Durson 04/12/06   39.   let the best man win 10:29  |  leb 04/12/06   40.   Middle East reality 10:44  |  Marwan مروان خوري 04/12/06   41.   A new civil war in Lebanon is very good news. 10:52  |  Observer 04/12/06   42.   Hizbulla smuggling weapons 11:11  |  JG 04/12/06   43.   Marwan Khoury, I expressed it before, and I would like to do it 11:57  |  Nadav 04/12/06   44.   Michigan 12:14  |  Walid 04/12/06   45.   Pete 12:34  |  Walid 04/12/06   46.   Nadav and Cipora 12:41  |  Walid 04/12/06   47.   To Lebanese Number 13 13:31  |  Syrian Idiot 04/12/06   48.   #38 - Durson as usual 16:38  |  * BEN JABO 04/12/06   49.   Sad but it is not true 09:19  |  You love drama 01/04/08

Today Online Jerusalem council okays 600 new Jewish homes in Arab area Responses: 257 Yishai: Israel must negotiate with Hamas over Shalit release Responses: 148 Editorial: Peace talks, even on Jerusalem, must be secret Responses: 62 MK Swaid: Demolition of Arab homes will lead to an explosion Responses: 66 Rosner's Domain New Guest: Rabbis who don't officiate intermarriage should refer to rabbis who do Poll: What percentage of Jews will vote McCain? 38% for pressuring Palestinians, 25% for pressuring Israel (WTR) Can McCain get a boost from the new dovish Jewish lobby? More Headlines 05:38 Russia's UN envoy: Moscow summit would energize peace process 07:31 Hamas: IDF special forces kill two militants in Gaza raid 05:42 Barak heeds Rice call, reverses course to back PA border plan 05:50 Hamas TV puppet 'kills' Bush as revenge for U.S., Israeli actions 05:53 PMO to bear financial cost of Israel Radio's Farsi broadcasts 05:56 Vatican looks to assuage Jews' anger over controversial prayer 06:08 U.K. archives shed light on female spy who led anti-Nazi resistance 03:57 Coming soon - kosher financial instruments 04:16 Palestinians approve $3.337 billion draft budget for 2008 04:42 Restless Druze employ boycotts, arson to combat cellular antennas 04:52 Court extends remand of Ramle couple suspected of abusing their eight children 05:00 How did the bee cross the road? Via a bee bridge, of course 05:04 Court to rule in former minister Benizri bribery case on Tuesday Previous Editions Select Day 31 mar 30 mar 28 mar 27 mar 26 mar 25 mar 24 mar 23 mar 21 mar 20 mar 19 mar 18 mar

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