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The cease-fire will go up in flames
By Gideon Levy
Tags: Gideon Levy

Click here for more articles by Gideon Levy

Here is the forecast: In a few days, there will be a targeted killing operation. The military correspondents will recite: "He was one of the senior operatives of Hamas (or Islamic Jihad), and was responsible for producing and smuggling large amounts of armaments." In response, a barrage of Qassams will fall on Sderot. One of the residents might be injured. In the process of the targeted killing operation, some passersby might also be killed; the correspondents will then recite: "They were armed."

Several days later, there might be a terror attack. The leaders of the right-wing parties and the Labor Party will be interviewed on television and will recite: "Abu Mazen has once again demonstrated that he is incapable and unwilling to fight terror. There is no one to talk to." Public Security Minister Avi Dichter will propose turning Beit Hanun into a ghost town. Eli Yishai will suggest bombing from the air. The next day, Qassams will fall again, and the IDF will enter the northern Gaza Strip. The cease-fire will go up in flames.
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This is not a bold wager. This is almost the exact series of events that occurred in previous cease-fires. What was is what will be. There are plenty of examples. In January 2002, after several months of quiet, the Tanzim activist Raed Karmi was assassinated in Tul Karm. Dichter, who was then the head of the Shin Bet, pushed for this action, of course. Immediately afterwards, Fatah began its suicide bombing attacks.

Several months later, the Tanzim announced a unilateral cease-fire. Shortly thereafter, in July 2002, Salah Shehadeh was assassinated in Gaza in a one-ton bombing, which also killed 15 innocent residents. That was the end of the cease-fire.

At the beginning of the summer of 2003, the hudna was declared. A week later, the police counter-terror unit targeted Mahmoud Shawer in Qalqiliyah. During the first week of the hudna, the IDF arrested 320 Palestinians. After two months of the hudna, Israel targeted Ismail Abu Shenab, 53. "He has been a wanted man for years," the reporters recited. The next day, 15 mortar shells were fired at Gush Katif and three Qassams at Israel. In August, Israel also assassinated Mohammed Sidr, the head of the military branch of Islamic Jihad in Hebron, and that was the end of the hudna.

Several months later, in December 2003, the IDF embarked on a broad operation. The objective: Sheikh Ibrahim Hamed, head of the military branch of Hamas in Ramallah. The precise date: the day the Geneva Initiative was launched.

Coincidental timing? Doubtful. In April 2004, when negotiations between Yasser Arafat and Hamas were progressing, Israel assassinated Abed Aziz Rantisi. The negotiations stalled.

In July 2005, the tahadiya was also threatened: In a single day, Israel targeted seven in Salfit and in Gaza. A month later, another five in Tul Karm. In June 2006, just as Mahmoud Abbas was about to declare a referendum vote on the prisoners' document, Israel targeted Jamal Abu Samhadana, the commander of the Popular Resistance Committees in Gaza. A few days later, the Ghaliya family was killed on the Gaza beach, whether by an IDF shell or "dud." The referendum went up in smoke, together with the prisoners' document. Hamas threatened to resume terror attacks after 17 quiet months. The Qassams started to fall on Sderot in frightening numbers. Thus, systematically: Every time a chance emerges, a liquidation is quick to follow. The IDF and Shin Bet, not the statesmen, dictate the developments.

The current cease-fire was achieved thanks to the U.S. president's visit in Jordan. Israel responded to the Palestinian initiative - again it is a Palestinian initiative, there has never been an Israeli initiative - after the military operations were bitter failures. After "Summer Rains" and "Autumn Clouds," after 80 were killed in one week in Beit Hanun, the firing of Qassams did not stop. The IDF hurried to respond with a typical sour countenance: Senior officers in the Southern Command expressed strong opposition in off-the-record conversations, the chief of staff was quick to declare that "the IDF was only a partially a partner in the decision" and the defense minister expressed reservations about expanding the cease-fire to the West Bank.

The IDF is not interested in the cease-fire. One can assume that neither is the Shin Bet. Reports on how the cease-fire is already being exploited for redeployment on the other side are flooding the media. And the end is known in advance. Instead of Israel promoting the cease-fire, it is acting to undermine it. A cease-fire is bad for the IDF, especially when it stems from its failures as in Lebanon and Gaza.

How intolerably easy it is for the IDF to undermine the relative quiet that has been achieved. One assassination is enough. A single soldier at a checkpoint is capable of igniting a conflagration. When the IDF wants it, every broom opens fire. And the IDF wants it, unfortunately.

Moreover, the IDF is now being asked not only to show restraint, but also to take a series of practical steps to make life easier for the Palestinians. In the meantime, how surprising, there is no sign of this. Anyone wishing to confirm this can drive to the Hawara checkpoint and see with his own eyes the transit of cattle there, which is called a human passageway. Another example? During a two-day period at the end of the week, the IDF arrested over 50 Palestinians in the West Bank. Why exactly now?

"I reach out my hand in peace to our Palestinian neighbors," Ehud Olmert said in his Sde Boker speech, his most impressive speech, which promises the Palestinians half of heaven and earth. This speech is liable to be washed in blood. Perhaps the Palestinians will be to blame, but no less than this is the gnawing fear that the IDF and Shin Bet will return to their destructive patterns of action.

It is now not only a matter of the danger of renewed hostile activity, but a much more fateful question: Who rules in Israel and who is really dictating its path? During the coming weeks, Israelis should carefully monitor the developments. Let's establish a "Cease-Fire Watch," and watch to see who is once again maliciously undermining it.
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  1.   Israel`s Jews can`t afford peace with Palestinians 10:00  |  Clickfool 03/12/06
  2.   Truth 10:04  |  Omar 03/12/06
  3.   Levy is right 10:04  |  Rose 03/12/06
  4.   The crease fire is not existent anyway 10:05  |  Shlomo from Tel Aviv 03/12/06
  5.   Isn`t this MUTUAL ceasefire? 10:29  |  BB 03/12/06
  6.   Sweet coincidence or when the suspicion lingers 10:29  |  Swiss (Dino) 03/12/06
  7.   Sad but true 10:31  |  shaun 03/12/06
  8.   Mr. Levy 10:33  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 03/12/06
  9.   False Flag Ops 11:02  |  Rowan Berkeley 03/12/06
  10.   opposite day? 11:03  |  revoltop 03/12/06
  11.   Gideon Levy 11:04  |  Connie 03/12/06
  12.   Levy should be awarded medal of best prophet in Gaza! 11:08  |  Andre 03/12/06
  13.   #5 BB Asks a pertinent question 11:11  |  Johnboy 03/12/06
  14.   That is why no-one got very excited about 11:25  |  sh 03/12/06
  15.   Beware of he who has nothing to lose 11:44  |  Natallie Durson 03/12/06
  16.   One-Sided Propaganda 11:49  |  Terry 03/12/06
  17.   Theyre still firing Kassams at Negev, dummy! 11:51  |  SLAVO 03/12/06
  18.   cipora 11:53  |  A.M. 03/12/06
  19.   dire foreboding 11:56  |  Hadassah H 03/12/06
  20.   Children lost to Autumn Clouds. 12:10  |  Maureen Ann 03/12/06
  21.   Indeed, the cease-fire will go up in flames so long as the 12:11  |  Yair 03/12/06
  22.   Gideon Levy 12:11  |  Margie in Tel Aviv 03/12/06
  23.   To the point 12:23  |  Observer 03/12/06
  24.   #15, "beware of those who have nothing to lose" 12:41  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 03/12/06
  25.   SHEIKH YASIN, RANTISI AND HARIRI 12:41  |  indrajaya 03/12/06
  26.   Does Israel really want peace? 12:47  |  lennybruce 03/12/06
  27.   The cease-fire will go up in flames 12:52  |  Ralph 03/12/06
  28.   #22 margie, gideon is only stating facts, as journalists do 13:30  |  viper 03/12/06
  29.   please, don`t allow facts to confuse you! 13:36  |  m cohen 03/12/06
  30.   The cease-fire will go up in flames 13:39  |  Per 03/12/06
  31.   Believe in Bush! Just believe! 13:48  |  christoph 03/12/06
  32.   #1 Clickfool 13:57  |  christoph 03/12/06
  33.   Ceasefire is a prerequisite for negotiation 14:29  |  Yael 03/12/06
  34.   Does Mr. Levy read Haaretz? 14:31  |  Mr. Ami Goldman 03/12/06
  35.   Levy 14:50  |  Charles 03/12/06
  36.   PS Clickfool #1 14:59  |  christoph 03/12/06
  37.   Levy`s clarion call! 15:09  |  sandra chitayat 03/12/06
  38.   Dont have to read this 15:18  |  Steven 03/12/06
  39.   Response to #17 15:22  |  Israel Lover 03/12/06
  40.   Levy, buy the book "Peace for Dummies" 15:27  |  Israel lover 03/12/06
  41.   "CEASEFIRE" promise means nothing to Pals& their apologists. 15:28  |  PETER SM 03/12/06
  42.   Uri Avnery 15:33  |  anihohevetotchamorde 03/12/06
  43.   Uri Averny = a radical apologist for terror 15:54  |  Jon Kelso 03/12/06
  44.   viper in Australia 16:01  |  Margie in Tel Aviv 03/12/06
  45.   Qassam rockets are not a big problem 16:03  |  spyguy 03/12/06
  46.   your blind in one eye. 16:16  |  Naftaly Kleinman 03/12/06
  47.   HAMAS pulls out of talks to extend ceasefire to W.Bank. 16:17  |  PETER SM 03/12/06
  48.   peace for dummies: suicide=true peace 16:19  |  naftaly k 03/12/06
  49.   Margie of the UK 16:39  |  Gabe1 03/12/06
  50.   Cease fire in the West Bank is essential 16:53  |  Tosefta 03/12/06
  51.   Gideom Levy is a traitor and provocator 17:05  |  Vittorio 03/12/06
  52.   @Gideon the clown Levy 17:06  |  Dan 03/12/06
  53.   LEVY IS LYING 17:20  |  Albert 03/12/06
  54.   Gabe 1, I have read your notes to me. Normally I am a forgiving 17:30  |  Nadav 03/12/06
  55.   To Gabe 1 re Nadav 17:39  |  Klaudia 03/12/06
  56.   To Christoph who admires anti-Semites #36 17:42  |  Jonathan S 03/12/06
  57.   ceasefire in name only 17:43  |  RasPutin 03/12/06
  58.   ClickFOOL about vicious and hateful Jews 17:43  |  Jonathan S 03/12/06
  59.   Unbelievable 17:45  |  Ron 03/12/06
  60.   Gideon, 15 Kassams fired have not been answered 17:49  |  David 03/12/06
  61.   spyguy: Qassam rockets are not a big problem 17:49  |  RasPutin 03/12/06
  62.   Dan: There`s no ceasefire, and there`ll be no ceasefire 17:52  |  RasPutin 03/12/06
  63.   Ron: It`s High Time To "Settle" Gideon Levy In Sderot 18:00  |  RasPutin 03/12/06
  64.   Cipora Julianna Kohn #8 18:00  |  Jim Stevenson 03/12/06
  65.   Islamic Jihad: Missile fire to resume from Gaza 18:07  |  Jonathan S 03/12/06
  66.   Tosefta can you not answer my simple question? 18:15  |  Danite 03/12/06
  67.   clickfool #1 must be a fake 18:26  |  citizen zero 03/12/06
  68.   "never been an Israeli initiative.." 18:32  |  citizen zero 03/12/06
  69.   Roadblocks to peace with the Palestinians 18:49  |  Tosefta 03/12/06
  70.   To revoltop 18:50  |  Canderra 03/12/06
  71.   Gideon, Gideon have a knish and calm down 19:05  |  Stephen Connor 03/12/06
  72.   Why are they diggingt tunnels 19:10  |  Canderra 03/12/06
  73.   Gabe1 19:12  |  CHGODMK 03/12/06
  74.   Excuse Me, Klaudia... 19:18  |  CHGODMK 03/12/06
  75.   Johnboy and Gideon How on earth could you come to this decision. 19:19  |  Aby 03/12/06
  76.   Can`t answer, not reading your posts (Danite 66) 19:19  |  Tosefta 03/12/06
  77.   Insightful 19:26  |  Baz Mann 03/12/06
  78.   Clickfool & Gideon - 3rd time sending 19:28  |  Avrum 03/12/06
  79.   Peace Comes When Both Sides Want Peace 19:33  |  RasPutin 03/12/06
  80.   Short Solutions Work in the Short Term 19:37  |  RasPutin 03/12/06
  81.   Political Control 19:38  |  chet 03/12/06
  82.   Cease-fire 19:57  |  Gordon Reed 03/12/06
  83.   cease fire 20:20  |  sky 03/12/06
  84.   Why do people say the IDF does not want peace ?? 21:17  |  Avrum 03/12/06
  85.   #56 To Jonathan - I wish you all the best 21:21  |  christoph 03/12/06
  86.   2002 ceasefires timeline proving Palestinians attacked first each 21:42  |  Jabadini 03/12/06
  87.   Mr Levy, Gideon 21:46  |  Neville C 03/12/06
  88.   Someone tell me how the Pals want peace when... 21:55  |  Daniel Friedman 03/12/06
  89.   Drunken Stupor 21:58  |  Jo Jo 03/12/06
  90.   ceasefire timeline continued for 2003/2004 22:06  |  Jabadini 03/12/06
  91.   Gideon Levy lies and nobody questions it 22:10  |  Jabadini 03/12/06
  92.   As the Kassams fall.. 22:11  |  ron 03/12/06
  93.   Yeah, right. 22:26  |  Jeff 03/12/06
  94.   2nd try # 74- CHGODMK 22:27  |  Klaudia 03/12/06
  95.   nothing new 23:15  |  phil 03/12/06
  96.   To 1. Clickfool.. Peace with whom ? 23:28  |  Altalena 03/12/06
  97.   #1 Clickfool still the #1 fool 23:35  |  albert amato 03/12/06
  98.   The IDF in Israel (Baz Mann 77) 23:35  |  Tosefta 03/12/06
  99.   Gideon Levy, Your suggestion seems very wise ....... 23:37  |  Dutch 03/12/06
  100.   To Christoph in Germany 23:51  |  Jonathan S 03/12/06
  101.   caese fire in flames 23:54  |  self 03/12/06
  102.   To 99. Dutch. Who will win ? 23:57  |  Altalena 03/12/06
  103.   Nadav #54 23:57  |  Gabe1 03/12/06
  104.   #69, roadblock to peace with Palestinians 00:00  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 04/12/06
  105.   Gideon Levy 00:05  |  Sidney Joel Goldberg 04/12/06
  106.   The cease-fire SHOULD cease. 00:10  |  Karl Schulze 04/12/06
  107.   Klaudia 00:11  |  Gabe1 04/12/06
  108.   The cease fire will go up in flames 00:39  |  Shmuelshachor 04/12/06
  109.   What cease-fire ? 01:31  |  Paul Henzen 04/12/06
  110.   Tosefta #98 Inside the IDF mentality 01:32  |  Baz Mann 04/12/06
  111.   Gideon is 100% right 01:35  |  justiceseeker 04/12/06
  112.   #8 Cipora 01:40  |  Holden 04/12/06
  113.   #27 Cipora - is this what you mean? 01:47  |  Holden 04/12/06
  114.   Bush wants Barghouti, Israel wants Pollard: quid pro quo 02:05  |  David Turner 04/12/06
  115.   Typical Tosefta 02:28  |  Danite 04/12/06
  116.   Levy is right, again 02:44  |  peacelover 04/12/06
  117.   dutch 02:59  |  Gabe1 04/12/06
  118.   CHFCUK #73 03:20  |  Gabe 1 04/12/06
  119.   Free Marwan Barghouti 03:28  |  angillilio 04/12/06
  120.   Israel has the biggest army in the region 04:28  |  Marilyn 04/12/06
  121.   IDF or Israeli Government Policy? 04:35  |  Roger 04/12/06
  122.   #61 Yes, Qassam are unpleasant, but 04:44  |  spyguy 04/12/06
  123.   GABE1 04:53  |  CHGODMK 04/12/06
  124.   David Turner, in regard to trading Barghouti for Pollard: 04:55  |  Mimi 04/12/06
  125.   HUDNA SHMUDNA - HAMAS NO LONGER NEED TUNNELS.... 05:12  |  Emanuel 04/12/06
  126.   Gabe 1. Being a supporter of Meretz that you claim Margie is, 05:35  |  Nadav 04/12/06
  127.   Israelie hate 05:40  |  Goyim 04/12/06
  128.   Gideon`s Gourmet; Healthy food for thought... 06:05  |  Eric 04/12/06
  129.   #20 Children Killed because of adult cowardice 06:15  |  * BEN JABO 04/12/06
  130.   Marilyn`s envy`s Israels clusters 06:19  |  * BEN JABO 04/12/06
  131.   #116 Marilyn`s envious of Israels BIIGGEST army 06:23  |  * BEN JABO 04/12/06
  132.   Rasputin #80 06:36  |  Canderra 04/12/06
  133.   #116 Marilyn, Immoral & disproportionate force 07:20  |  Dutch 04/12/06
  134.   the war lords.... 07:53  |  paradiz 04/12/06
  135.   the war lords... continued 07:56  |  paradiz 04/12/06
  136.   Gabe 09:24  |  Margie in Tel Aviv 04/12/06
  137.   Margie in Tel-Aviv #136 09:42  |  Yair 04/12/06
  138.   David Grossman`s speech 09:43  |  Hadassah H 04/12/06
  139.   124-Mimi: I am not speaking for Pollard but for Israel: Our DEBT. 16:30  |  David Turner 04/12/06
  140.   Predicting the past certainly isn`t "bold" 18:46  |  Danny -Israeli one 04/12/06
  141.   Today`s article 18:51  |  Ms Dale Egee 04/12/06
  142.   Gideon Levy for PM 19:38  |  Sam (UK) 04/12/06
  143.   #133 22:47  |  Hunter 04/12/06
  144.   Hunter, YOU COULDN`T BE MORE WRONG 15:40  |  Dutch 05/12/06
  145.   1. Clickfool and the future 23:16  |  sicko 05/12/06
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