It is still unclear what Khaled Meshal's talks with Egyptian officials in Cairo will mean for kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit. On one hand, the very fact that Meshal, who heads Hamas' political bureau, came to Cairo provides grounds for optimism, as it indicates that he desires progress on Shalit's case. And the fact that he gave a press conference in Cairo indicates that Egypt was pleased with the outcome of the talks.

But on the other hand, it has repeatedly seemed in recent months that an agreement on Shalit is near, yet nothing has happened. Moreover, Egyptian Intelligence Chief Omar Suleiman has canceled a planned trip to Israel this week - indicating that he has nothing new to report.

Either way, Meshal looked pleased yesterday. After all, it is not every day that the head of a terrorist organization is treated like a head of state.

	Advertisement

In his press conference, Meshal mocked Shalit and Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas. He also said that while Israel and the United States fear the PA's collapse, "that is what will happen within half a year" - and it was clear this was a threat rather than a wish.

Palestinian pundits believe Meshal eventually wants a prisoner exchange in order to bolster his standing in the Palestinian street and to give him a stronger position in the talks on a unity government. Abbas has thus far rejected his demand that Hamas' candidates head the unity government's interior, foreign and finance ministries, but if Israel indeed frees hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for Shalit, Abbas will be forced to concede.

But they disagreed over what motivated Meshal to come to Cairo: a genuine desire to close a deal now, or pressure from Damascus to do so, in order to ease Syria's difficult international situation. Even if it were the latter, however, the chances of Shalit soon returning to Israel now look better.

Meshal's visit to Cairo underscores the degree to which he has become virtually the sole decision maker in the Palestinian arena. Yet his statements show how disconnected he still is from daily life in the West Bank and Gaza: While he was threatening a third intifada, Palestinians and Israelis are already being killed and wounded almost daily, and the PA's unemployment and poverty rates have soared. But for Meshal, watching events on his television in Damascus, that evidently does not matter. He is still smiling.