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Last update - 08:20 24/11/2006
Analysis: How Lebanon can avoid a political crisis
By Zvi Bar'el, Haaretz Correspondent

Lebanon did not deliver the goods Thursday. Prophecies of an impending civil war were left unfulfilled with one and a half to two million people demonstrating their allegiance to the Gemayel family in one of the largest funerals in history. Those looking for bloodletting had to turn a bit farther east, to Iraq, where one of the worst attacks left at least 150 people dead and several hundred wounded.

The explosion, which came at the end of the day of the Gemayel funeral, highlights the fundamental difference between the two countries: one, Iraq, is out of control, broken, and losing all semblance of a state, and the other, Lebanon - notwithstanding the tragedy and the sectarianism, and in spite of the recent war - continues to clasp the strings that unite it as it sits terrified in the shadow of a civil war.

Thursday Iraq served as a reminder to Lebanon. Indeed, the massive funeral Thursday was an impressive display of restraint. No less important was the attendance of the Shi'a speaker of parliament, Nabih Beri, alongside members of the government and the Gemayel family.

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However, one impressive and well-organized funeral and a murder of a minister from an elite family will not put an end to the political conflict that emerged in recent weeks.

The Secretary General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, who watched the enormous gathering of mourners, is certain he could mobilize a similar number of demonstrators, if not more.

He is also sure he can outdo the rhetoric of Amin Gemayel and Walid Jumblatt, who called on the public to begin a new independence intifada, though the previous intifada in Lebanon, which was sparked by the murder of Rafik al-Hariri and resulted in the eviction of the Syrians, has not died down entirely.

Nasrallah can find consolation in the fact that the Hariri-Gemayel-Jumblatt coalition will have a hard time rallying such huge numbers again, should the time come for another demonstration.

But this is not about a competition of demonstrations. The murder of Pierre Gemayel will only delay the Hezbollah agenda and has already put off its own demonstration scheduled for this week. Hezbollah still aspires to play a greater role in the government and wants more ministers, as well as veto power on critical issues. The group believes it represents the largest portion of the population, and it is willing to take this to elections.

But it is also willing to give up these powers if presented with a satisfactory compromise solution. One of Hezbollah's spokesmen hinted Thursday at such willingness, without specifying his asking price. What is clear for the time being is that even if the organization does not achieve its goals at the negotiating table, it will push for gains by political means.

The question now is whether the Amal and Hezbollah ministers will return to the government they stepped down from and restore its public legitimacy, or whether they will put the country through an exhaustive series of trials.

The key lies in the compromise over the international tribunal, which is supposed to try Hariri's killers. Now, following Gemayel's murder, the coalition will find it even more difficult to give in on this issue, and it is possible that herein lies the solution. If Hezbollah agrees to accept gains in other areas and allows the international tribunal to carry out its task, it is possible that Lebanon will once more manage to extricate itself from a political crisis.

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  1.   Depose Assad 02:54  |  Democracy rules 24/11/06
  2.   Lebanon will turn into another Iran before Iraq 03:01  |  Dave 24/11/06
  3.   Find Hiz weapons 03:47  |  DemocracyRules 24/11/06
  4.   No pain No Game , Iran and Syria Agents out of Leb Gov`t 04:28  |  Joseph E . 24/11/06
  5.   ONE MORE BA`ATHIST REGIME NEEDS TO GO 04:46  |  JUDGE 24/11/06
  6.   IT CANT UNLESS UNITED 04:47  |  LEBANESE 24/11/06
  7.   Bonne chance 04:58  |  Steph 24/11/06
  8.   Demonstrators less than 100, 000 04:59  |  Walid 24/11/06
  9.   Real Democracy 05:10  |  Jimmy 24/11/06
  10.   Israel``s 05:40  |  Abu Shadid 24/11/06
  11.   To number 8 05:58  |  Someone 24/11/06
  12.   2 million? LOL 07:22  |  George Chahine 24/11/06
  13.   to number 11 08:12  |  cdn leb 24/11/06
  14.   #10 - You Hit the Nail on the Head 08:31  |  Tod Zuckerman 24/11/06
  15.   Jumnlatt-Gemayel-Hariri Coalition? 08:55  |  Chris 24/11/06
  16.   # 6 LEBANESE @ Miami / Florida / USA 08:55  |  Joseph E . 24/11/06
  17.   Zvi Bar`el exadurating # 2 Million Waw Waw 13:13  |  Richard 25/11/06
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