The murder of the Lebanese industry minister, Pierre Gemayel, poses a difficult test to the fragile political balance of power in Lebanon. Not only because this was a political murder - there have been many such events in the history of that country - but also because of fears that any more assassinations will bring Lebanon closer to a renewal of a civil war that could spin out of control.

The murder occurred at a time when the government of Fouad Siniora is facing a situation in which it may lose its ability to impose its authority, and thus a political vacuum may emerge - similar to that which exists in both the Palestinian Authority and Iraq. These two troubling examples make very clear that in fact a political vacuum does not really exist, rather that radical and terrorist elements are trying to take the place of a weak regime. Lebanon is still not such a country. It has institutions of government and powerful political forces that recognize the value of democracy and would like to continue along its path in order to carry out changes. It is also the sole example of its kind in the Middle East - a state that of its own accord grants equal rights to members of all ethnic and religious groups - and in this it can serve as an example for emulation.

The responses of public figures and citizens to the Gemayel murder, seeking to prevent violent reactions, suggest that there are fears of civil war, but even more that there's a desire to prevent one at any price. We can assume that in spite of the assassinations in the country, the 15 years that have passed since the civil war was brought to an end have created solid foundations of appreciation for the democratic process and a willingness for close cooperation among the various groups and political movements. Evidence of this is that no Lebanese groups are any longer willing to accept assassinations as a legitimate means of achieving political ends.

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However, Lebanon still appears to be unable to counter the challenge on its own, and it requires effective international assistance. On Tuesday, Prime Minister Siniora made clear the kind of assistance that is necessary: the quick establishment of an international tribunal that will try the suspects in the assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri and in other murders. Siniora believes that any delay in the establishment of such a tribunal will only lead the assassins of Gemayel to think that anything is acceptable. The international community, which is investing forces and efforts in order to calm the situation following the recent war, cannot remain indifferent to such a call.

Israel should also not pretend to be indifferent to the developments in Lebanon, especially when they could lead to political change in the neighboring country, which could again become a focal point for war. However, a very high and sealed fence should be built in order to differentiate between concerned interest in what goes on in Lebanon and intervention in its affairs. This is an explosive moment, in which Israel must help Lebanon calm down. Israel's small contribution to minimizing the potential for conflagration in Lebanon could be made by ending the provocative overflights in Lebanese airspace, declaring a willingness to withdraw from the Shaba Farms, and even announcing a willingness to hold talks with Bashar Assad on a diplomatic process.