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Syria is the key
By Avi Primor

Syrian President Bashar Assad has good reasons to court Israel and ask it to return to the diplomatic negotiations that were stopped in March 2000. Israel has equally good reasons to accept the Syrian courtship. To ensure his political survival, Assad is aspiring to break out of the isolation into which he has been pushed by the United States, France and Israel. The Golan Heights is only the second priority for him. On this issue he is exempt from the emotional approach of his father, Hafez Assad, who lost the Heights in 1967. For the son, who was only two years old at the time, returning the Golan to Syrian control is only a means of glorifying his name and reinforcing his power.

The alliance with Hezbollah and Iran serves the Syrian president in the short run. It is a passing tactical need. Hezbollah serves Assad as a convenient means for applying pressure to Israel from inside Lebanon without fear of Israeli retaliations and allows him to continue his involvement in Lebanon's domestic affairs, whereas Iran serves Syria as something on which it can rely in its isolation in the international arena and the Arab world.

However, Syria does not have a long-term interest in a victory for Iran or for Hezbollah. Despite the control of the Alawite minority, Syria is not a Shi'ite country, and it has nothing to gain from strengthening the Shi'a in the Muslim world. It is not a Persian country, and therefore it has nothing to gain from the strengthening of Iranian influence in the region. Syria is also not a religious state, and, therefore, a victory by the Islamic fundamentalists is not good for the future of the Syrian Ba'athist rule.

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The extreme wing of Hamas, headed by Khaled Meshal, is also only a tactical tool in Syrian hands against Israel and the West. If the Syrian president decides that he no longer needs its services, he will not hesitate to expel it, as he did with the leader of the Turkish Kurds, Abdullah Ocalan, when he decided to improve his relations with Turkey.

On September 24, 2006, the German weekly Der Spiegel published an interview with Assad in which the Syrian president answered among others the following three questions:

Do you, an ally and friend of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, agree with him that the aim should be the destruction of the State of Israel? Assad replied: "No, I am interested in negotiations and achieving peace with Israel."

The second question was:

Hezbollah, your allies, are celebrating "the victory over Israel." What are the lessons you draw from the victory?

Assad replied: "I am happy about the glorious victory, and I, too, am celebrating. The result of this victory is the hope of conducting negotiations with Israel."

Finally, Assad was asked:

Are you in favor of the Palestinians' right of return?

And he replied: "Yes, of course. I see this as an elementary and humane right. It is necessary to allow all the Palestinian refugees who are interested in this to return to the Palestinian state that will be established in the future as the result of a peace agreement with Israel."

These remarks speak for themselves, and they certainly constitute an opening for negotiations with Syria.

Israel has a great deal to gain from a peace agreement with Syria. It will be followed almost automatically by a peace agreement with Lebanon, which will sign on the peace along with all its neighbors. Peace with Syria will lead to Syria breaking off with Hezbollah, to its separation from Hamas and to pushing Iran well back beyond its borders.

Two questions remain for Israel, with which it will have to grapple: whether it is worthwhile to give up the Golan Heights, and whether it is necessary to take into account the objections on the part of the United States to negotiations with Syria. Many people in Israel are opposed to an agreement with Syria, on the assumption that giving up the Golan will bring us back to the difficult situation that once prevailed in the region. However, four Israeli prime ministers - Yitzhak Rabin, Shimon Peres, Benjamin Netanyahu and Ehud Barak - have already conducted negotiations with Syria on the basis of the principle of returning the Heights. A government that will dare today to enter into negotiations with Syria will indeed be taking a risk upon itself, but this is a calculated risk. It is reasonable to assume that when a detailed draft of a peace agreement is presented to the public, the negative outlook will change.

Assad has made it clear that in the framework of a peace agreement with Israel, he is prepared to accept everything to which his father committed himself in his meeting with then U.S. president Bill Clinton in Geneva in March 2000, and in the messages that he is sending, he is stressing that in negotiations with him, he will be even more flexible than his father. It is to be presumed that he will not insist on all of the hundreds of meters on the shore of Lake Kinneret that separated his father from us, and that he will also agree to the demilitarization of the Golan under international supervision and perhaps even to Israeli oversight positions for an interim period.

He wants to transform the Golan into a national park to which the Israelis will have free access without a need for visas. The Israeli who knows that he can get into his car and drive through the national park to Damascus to spend a weekend will see the relinquishing of the Golan differently than he does today.

Top European diplomats who are talking to the Americans are reporting that the American objection to negotiations with Syria is less firm than it sounds from the official statements. The U.S. also has an interest in separating Syria from Iran and having Syria's help in calming the situation in Iraq. Presumably the recommendations of the Baker commission, which U.S. President George W. Bush appointed to examine the situation in Iraq, will also include more flexibility toward Syria.

If we make it clear that negotiations with Syria are an Israeli interest, it is possible this will contribute even more to the moderation of the American objection. All that is needed today is a bit of courage, and an approach in which there is less domestic politics and more statesmanship on the horizon.

The author is head of the Center for European Studies at the Herzliya Interdisciplinary Center and formerly Israel's ambassador to the European Union and ambassador in Germany.

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  1.   key to what? 10:32  |  joe 22/11/06
  2.   Syria is a start 11:01  |  Natallie Durson 22/11/06
  3.   no brainer 11:04  |  truth_or_dare 22/11/06
  4.   Peace with Syria 11:19  |  Carl 22/11/06
  5.   Israel and Syria have a lot ot gain from peace 12:17  |  Wael 22/11/06
  6.   Start taking the land back 12:52  |  Michael 22/11/06
  7.   Piece with Syria not peace and I do not want either 12:53  |  Steven 22/11/06
  8.   Sounds like a change from the position of the Syrian FM 13:05  |  PETER SM 22/11/06
  9.   #5, i beg to differ 13:12  |  viper 22/11/06
  10.   We`re Not There Yet 13:39  |  Dyinglikeflies 22/11/06
  11.   Why give Syria Golan? 14:00  |  bob 22/11/06
  12.   Whenever Arabs want peace, they can ask for it! 14:41  |  AV 22/11/06
  13.   Michael 14:43  |  Walid 22/11/06
  14.   Lebanese-Syrian Peace is Good too, haha 14:48  |  JewishHeart 22/11/06
  15.   The "Don`t Ask, Just Tell" US Policy 14:59  |  Mark of Lewiston 22/11/06
  16.   What a Gift! 15:03  |  JewishHeart 22/11/06
  17.   Salman Rushdie Quote for leftists 15:03  |  Z Lando 22/11/06
  18.   Is Syria the key? Didn`t you say that Oslo agreement was a key? 15:30  |  Vittorio 22/11/06
  19.   Trojan 15:59  |  Rami Lebanese 22/11/06
  20.   Syria has nothing to offer -just take 16:00  |  Sal 22/11/06
  21.   Very sensible, with a couple of corrections 16:16  |  Tosefta 22/11/06
  22.   I Knew It ......... 16:23  |  Terry 22/11/06
  23.   WOW! What a Guy 16:28  |  Danite 22/11/06
  24.   Rami Trojan 16:38  |  JewishHeart 22/11/06
  25.   Natiional Park? 16:42  |  Avi Yerushalmi 22/11/06
  26.   Syria has links to Terrorism 17:07  |  Bruriah Sarah 22/11/06
  27.   The Golan 18:07  |  Frank 22/11/06
  28.   Syria 18:09  |  Ilan Sebag 22/11/06
  29.   Shalimar the Clown 18:20  |  Pilly 22/11/06
  30.   Syria Rami 18:28  |  JewishHeart 22/11/06
  31.   More Delusional BS 18:34  |  Tod Zuckerman 22/11/06
  32.   Golan and Kinneret (Frank 27) 18:41  |  Tosefta 22/11/06
  33.   28 - What will negotiations with Syria Achieve? 18:43  |  Bruriah Sarah 22/11/06
  34.   Israel is the troublemaker here. 18:52  |  Timothy 22/11/06
  35.   Syria Fatal pre-condition 19:02  |  Giles K. 22/11/06
  36.   Syria 19:17  |  oolie 22/11/06
  37.   Syria 19:20  |  oolie 22/11/06
  38.   Are Nightmares of the Cold War Still Haunting US? 19:46  |  KNA-S 22/11/06
  39.   Avi Primor caught in a lie. 20:00  |  Ken Jurist 22/11/06
  40.   Israel has much to gain from peace with Syria 20:01  |  tbora 22/11/06
  41.   The Golan was never historically part of Syria. 20:04  |  David Stoler 22/11/06
  42.   Avi Primor is an apologist for Syria. Here are the facts 20:07  |  James Marlow 22/11/06
  43.   Peace with Syria 20:15  |  David 22/11/06
  44.   so obvious this is not the question. the proper answer 20:15  |  ralph 22/11/06
  45.   Avi Primor got far more vision than Olmert 20:20  |  Roi is back 22/11/06
  46.   Israel has little to gain from Assads version of peace 20:31  |  zionist forever 22/11/06
  47.   Shift in power relationships 20:58  |  Hannah 22/11/06
  48.   34 - Response 21:10  |  Bruriah Sarah 22/11/06
  49.   40 - Response 21:13  |  Bruriah Sarah 22/11/06
  50.   #25, Avi of al-Quds 21:16  |  Hannah 22/11/06
  51.   #26, Ilan 21:22  |  Hannah 22/11/06
  52.   David stoler 21:24  |  Danite 22/11/06
  53.   #31, Todd 21:33  |  Hannah 22/11/06
  54.   Syrian Israeli peace 21:57  |  Thomas Dotson 22/11/06
  55.   Hannah`s empty slogans 22:37  |  sh 22/11/06
  56.   #23, Danite 22:49  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 22/11/06
  57.   #55, sh 22:58  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 22/11/06
  58.   Hannah and have patience 23:04  |  Sam 22/11/06
  59.   #55, sh 23:20  |  Hannah 22/11/06
  60.   #35 Giles K makes a mistake 23:30  |  Johnboy 22/11/06
  61.   #58, Sam 23:41  |  Hannah 22/11/06
  62.   Hannah- on following the leader 00:02  |  Sam 23/11/06
  63.   Cowardly Syria has always let terrorists do its dirty work 00:12  |  Yaakov K. 23/11/06
  64.   Is it Mossad or Syria? Why did Ghazi Kenaan commit suicide? 00:43  |  Alexios 23/11/06
  65.   Talks with Syria 01:19  |  Paul 23/11/06
  66.   ROTHSCHILD COUNTRY 02:07  |  TOBIA 23/11/06
  67.   Give, Give, Give 02:28  |  Jim 23/11/06
  68.   #46, Syria has little to gain from Israel`s version of peace 02:48  |  Hannah 23/11/06
  69.   Gimme, Gimme, Gimme 02:52  |  Jim 23/11/06
  70.   #48, Buried Sarah 02:54  |  Hannah 23/11/06
  71.   to # 34 Israel is the troublemaker here 03:17  |  Jim 23/11/06
  72.   #63, Tobia 03:24  |  Hannah 23/11/06
  73.   #64, Jim 03:27  |  Hannah 23/11/06
  74.   Ken Jurist, and eventually Syria let Turkey keep the Hatay 03:56  |  Jake 23/11/06
  75.   # 49 Brunah Sarah 04:01  |  Jim 23/11/06
  76.   Johnboy, Assad is insisting Israel AGREES to hand over Golan+ 04:03  |  Jake 23/11/06
  77.   Hannah, relying on Iran to do your dirty work? 04:07  |  Jake 23/11/06
  78.   # 57 Cipora: Some people! 04:20  |  Jim 23/11/06
  79.   Re to # 71 Hannah 04:35  |  Jim 23/11/06
  80.   To Caarl from Melbourne 04:36  |  Otto Rand 23/11/06
  81.   To Bob from Kiryat Ata 04:52  |  Otto Rand 23/11/06
  82.   To Hannah #47 05:01  |  Otto Rand 23/11/06
  83.   To Av #12 05:06  |  Otto Rand 23/11/06
  84.   Dyinglike flies #10 05:17  |  Otto Rand 23/11/06
  85.   To Sal from Turin 05:20  |  Otto Rand 23/11/06
  86.   #47, Otto 05:24  |  Hannah 23/11/06