VIRGINIA - Tuesday millions of Americans will go to the polls for mid-term elections in which they will be asked to choose all 435 members of the House of Representatives, one-third of the members of the Senate and 36 state governors.

In one of his recent television spots, Republican Senator George Allen turns to the viewers and "respectfully" asks for their vote. There hasn't been a race in these elections, which has known the ups and downs that Allen has experienced.

Tuesday evening, he will find out whether he has managed to escape the wrath of voters, and his party will be tensely monitoring his progress: If Allen loses, it could be the defeat that kicks off the Republicans' loss of control in the Senate. The House of Representatives, as almost everyone concurs, appears to be a lost cause.

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"My opponents in Washington," Allen says in his television spot, "have busied themselves with slanderous attacks on my character and my achievements; this is not how we do things in Virginia" - a hollow-sounding declaration in light of Allen's unbridled attacks on his rival, Democrat Jim Webb.

This is exactly how things are done in Virginia - and not only there. Close races have produced defamatory campaigns, and personal and sometimes cruel attacks. And just as is sometimes said about the weather, people have rushed to declare "such things have never happened before" - a correct statement only if one considers the time that has gone by since the previous election campaign.

Apparently, George Bush's sixth year in power will not be different to that of many of his predecessors - a year of political defeat. In 1938, two years after another Franklin Roosevelt's election victory, the Republicans, his opponents, won 75 seats in the House of Representatives, and thereby effectively blocked the progress of the New Deal. Dwight Eisenhower, a generally popular president, also took a knock in 1958. And there were presidents who had the same experience even earlier - Bill Clinton two years after he was first elected, and Ronald Reagan too.

While it may not be very pleasant, it does not necessarily spell disaster for the administration, and presidents have already proved they can recover from it. The Democratic majority in the House of Representatives is not expected to be very big, and the battle for the Senate remains an open one. If the Republicans preserve the majority they have there now, Congressional legislation will not be able to go into effect without their nod. And if the Republicans fail in the Senate too, the president still has the right of veto on laws. Bush has exercised this right only once in his six years in power; but faced with a contentious Congress, he will certainly use it more.

His rivals will berate and attack him, and say he is exercising his veto right overmuch, but precedent will be on his side: Clinton exercised this right 37 times, and Reagan did so on no less than 78 occasions. Even if he were to really try hard, it is unlikely that Bush would be able to achieve such numbers.

A 'do-nothing' Congress

The next Congress will also be able to embarrass the administration with infinite investigations, the summoning of witnesses, inquiries and reviews of decisions and courses of action. It will be a nuisance, but also a double-edged sword. If the Democrats go too far, the public will turn against them. In any event, important decisions can be passed only with inter-party consent. In all likelihood, most simply won't get through. This upcoming Congress may also earn the nickname former president Harry Truman gave to the Congress of 1948 - "the do-nothing Congress."

The slogan with which the Republicans won those elections also suits the mood of Bush's sixth year in office. "Had enough?" they asked the voters, and the voters replied loudly: Yes, we have had enough. And this is likely to be their response today too. This time, however, the Democrats will be the ones to benefit.

The expected vote today, therefore, will be one of no-confidence in the Bush administration. It's not as if the Democrats have come up with wonderful new ideas, or that the voters know exactly the direction in which they want to go. Of one thing, however, they seem convinced: The ruling party has reached the stage at which it deserves a good kick up the backside.

If the Republicans still have an inkling of a chance to cause a surprise, it lies in the well-oiled machine they have constructed for drumming up votes at the crunch time. When it comes to election day, caution requires taking into consideration the following scenario: A shrinking of the Republican majority in both houses, but not a total loss. Such a scenario would astound the pollsters and a large number of the politicians too. Whatever the case may be, the general picture isn't expected to change: A Congress with a negligible majority is not a tool for implementing ambitious plans.