The conflict between Israel and Hamas is likely to escalate soon in light of the Israel Defense Forces' decision to try to thwart the establishment of a Hamas security service in the West Bank.

In Gaza, Hamas' "Special Security Service" has become one of the organization's main power bases in its struggle against Fatah. Members of this force are well-equipped and very disciplined, and they have won almost all their street battles with Fatah gunmen. Though the service's more than 5,000 members appear on the Palestinian Authority payroll, in practice, they answer solely to Yusuf a-Zahar, a member of Hamas' military wing and brother of PA Foreign Minister Mahmoud a-Zahar. Alongside its official task of keeping order in Gaza's streets, the force has another, no less important, mission - intimidating Fatah.

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However, Hamas is having trouble consolidating its rule in the West Bank. Members of Fatah's military wing, the Al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades, may not rejoice at taking orders from PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas, but they are happy to use their weapons to intimidate Hamas members and Hamas-affiliated charities.

Al-Aqsa gangs, which rule most of the West Bank, have benefited from four years of IDF operations against Hamas that have severely damaged the latter's military infrastructure. Hamas is aware of the problem and seeks to close the gap with Fatah by recruiting its own men into the PA security services and turning them into a concentrated, well-armed, well-trained and intimidating operational force.

"Hamas is a pragmatic organization," said one IDF officer who has been following these events. "Its goal is not to conquer the streets of the West Bank, but to create an effective balance of deterrence with Fatah there."

Israel's official policy toward the Hamas-Fatah struggle is nonintervention. The government and defense establishment periodically discuss ideas for aiding Fatah indirectly, but in the nine months since Hamas won the Palestinian elections, no such idea has been approved.

Hamas's new venture, however, is causing a change in Israel's approach - more for fear of Hamas than for love of Fatah.

"We're dealing with them as we would any terrorist organization," said a senior General Staff officer. "We've already arrested several Hamas members who joined the [security] services, and we'll arrest any such person we hear about."

Army sources and Palestinian analysts agreed that for now, Hamas will move cautiously. It is evidently making do with recruiting people, usually in secret, to guard PA and Hamas institutions (which are often attacked by Fatah gangs) and senior government officials. A frontal clash with Fatah in the West Bank is apparently not on the cards, unless Fatah starts it.

To arm its people, Hamas is making massive weapons purchases, which have already raised the price of Kalashnikov rifles in the West Bank. It is also trying to smuggle arms from Egypt and Jordan. In addition, it is trying to persuade Fatah security service members to desert to Hamas. Thus far, it has apparently succeeded in organizing a few hundred armed men in several West Bank cities, of which the most prominent is Hebron.

Like the IDF, Fatah has no intention of resting on its laurels in the face of Hamas's new venture. Last week, several veteran Al-Aqsa members met in Nablus, and following a teleconference with other leading members from Jenin and Ramallah, decided to use force to prevent the establishment of a Hamas force in Nablus.

"We have a clear advantage in the West Bank, and we will make sure that Hamas doesn't carry out its plan," said one senior Fatah official, Hussein al-Sheikh of Ramallah.