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A Middle East breakthrough
By Jerome M. Segal

On September 24, The Washington Post published an interview with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. It deserves considerably more attention than it received. In it, Ahmadinejad made this remarkable comment about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: "Let the Palestinian people decide their fate in a free and fair referendum, and the result, whatever it is, should be accepted."

This Iranian suggestion of a Palestinian referendum dovetails with the position of Hamas: that the PLO, headed by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, should negotiate with Israel on behalf of the Palestinian people, but that any negotiated treaty must be subject to ratification by a referendum of all Palestinians, including those in the Diaspora.

This emphasis on the use of a Palestinian referendum as the key to ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict should not be dismissed as some public relations ploy. It speaks to several important Palestinian realities. One is that the PLO, to which Hamas does not belong, is not fully representative of the Palestinian people. A second is the belief that fundamental compromises on the Palestinian "right of return" will require direct expression by the people themselves.

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There is also a political reality. Whatever his internal machinations, Ahmadinejad knows that his ability to use the Palestinian cause for his own ends would run out of steam were the Palestinian people to endorse a peace agreement. Similarly, the Hamas leadership knows that its own political legitimacy would require it to accept any peace treaty ratified by a referendum.

In both cases, this political reality has been turned to advantage. Without making any compromises in advance on issues of substance, Iran and Hamas have been able to point toward a process that opens the door to negotiations and could lead to resolving the conflict. Thus, both Ahmadinejad and Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh have been able to adopt stances of moderation without appearing to shift on issues of principle. The challenge for the rest of us is to find a way to use this opportunity in the cause of genuine peace.

The most straightforward approach is to give Abbas what he has been asking for: a renewal of the Israeli-PLO final-status talks that were last held in January of 2001, but were broken off when Ariel Sharon was elected prime minister. This does not require a Palestinian unity government. Rather, what is needed is to sharply segregate peace negotiations from the issue of aid to the Palestinian Authority's Hamas-led government. The aid issue would remain unchanged, and dependent on whether the PA government accepts the principles of nonviolence, acceptance of previous agreements and recognition of Israel's right to exist, as laid down by the Quartet. Israel would not be negotiating with the PA government, but with the PLO, as did Yitzhak Rabin, Shimon Peres, Benjamin Netanyahu and Ehud Barak, when Yasser Arafat was head of the PLO.

It is not likely that the Bush Administration will support the resumption of final-status talks of the sort held under President Bill Clinton. While polls of both Israelis and Palestinians suggest that an agreement acceptable to both peoples can be found, were final-status talks to resume, it is doubtful that either leadership would make the hard compromises needed to reach an agreement. Knowing this, the Bush Administration has, understandably, been reluctant to repeat President Clinton's experience at Camp David in the summer of 2000. President Bush has no desire to see his second term end with a major negotiations failure.

An alternative approach, one that utilizes the referendum idea, offers a way forward. Rather than traditional bilateral negotiations, the process would open with the Quartet (the United States, European Union, United Nations and Russia) putting a fully drafted end-of-conflict peace treaty, based on the Clinton parameters, on the table. These parameters were accepted by Israel at the time, and are now also accepted by the PLO. Starting with the draft peace agreement, Israeli and Palestinian negotiators would be given six months to negotiate any improvements. Then, either in its original or improved form, Israel and the PLO would have to approve or reject the agreement.

Each party would utilize its own procedures. On the Israeli side, this would mean a cabinet decision on whether to bring the treaty to a vote in the Knesset. On the Palestinian side, if the PLO accepts the treaty document, it would be submitted for ratification by a referendum of the Palestinian people. This approach would provide the Palestinian people with a moment of truth, an opportunity, in Ahmadinejad's words, "to decide their fate."

Prior to negotiations, the Palestinians would need to enact specific procedures for calling and conducting a referendum. In addition, there would have to be clarity that a treaty approved in a referendum would become the law of the land, binding on all successor governments. Such steps are quite doable and would not take long to enact.

The key is to focus on bringing a balanced end-of-conflict agreement to a decisive vote of the Palestinian people. Success here would open the door for full normalization of Israel's relations with the Arab world, and possibly Iran. It is simply too important to not be tested.

The author heads the Peace Consultancy Project at the University of Maryland's Center for International and Security Studies.

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  1.   The US Will Consider A Referendum Only If Its Sure of the Result 10:35  |  Karim 11/10/06
  2.   Yes, let the Palestinians vote on "right of return". 10:48  |  Gina 11/10/06
  3.   And if they vote no? 10:51  |  Dov 11/10/06
  4.   SAY NO TO REFERENDUM 10:52  |  indrajaya 11/10/06
  5.   Waste of time 10:52  |  Natallie Durson 11/10/06
  6.   The flaccid use of words 11:31  |  FOX 11/10/06
  7.   Let the Lebanese people vote on any peace deal 11:35  |  Dan 11/10/06
  8.   They will choose war over peace and if so squish them! 11:42  |  British academic 11/10/06
  9.   Of course its a Ploy 11:45  |  Ronnie Wolman 11/10/06
  10.   why not a referendum in Israel ? 11:47  |  will 11/10/06
  11.   The camel-humping Iranian president also said... 11:58  |  Antonio Arab-hater 11/10/06
  12.   To Gina No. 2 - Do you think that Peace can be Reached Without 11:59  |  Karim 11/10/06
  13.   Indrajaya makes my point 12:09  |  FOX 11/10/06
  14.   to FOX: yalla chaverim! 12:20  |  will 11/10/06
  15.   indrajaya: democracy is still oligarchy 12:23  |  will 11/10/06
  16.   Durson, indrajaya, and Karim ...don`t be hatin` 12:30  |  Akiva Patysh 11/10/06
  17.   BA 12:31  |  Jasmine Murphy 11/10/06
  18.   to british academic 12:45  |  daniel 11/10/06
  19.   Ronnie where are you buddy? 12:46  |  FOX 11/10/06
  20.   to Fox : what about american Jews ? First World any better? 12:54  |  will 11/10/06
  21.   the Palestinians would choose peace 12:59  |  Khalid 11/10/06
  22.   to: will, On referendums... 13:04  |  Akiva Patysh 11/10/06
  23.   12: Of course it can, if "peace" doesn`t mean "jihad" 13:12  |  David Teich 11/10/06
  24.   No Strings Attached 13:27  |  Ronnie Wolman 11/10/06
  25.   Fox on sending the Jews (Dan)forth toward the land of Israel 13:45  |  Ronnie Wolman 11/10/06
  26.   Pre-condition: PALS should become mature to make a peace. 13:47  |  Vittorio 11/10/06
  27.   British academic 14:00  |  Margie in Tel Aviv 11/10/06
  28.   Khlid, I believe others have already asked you, many times, what 14:11  |  Shlomzion 11/10/06
  29.   Karim, Your fair quistion to Gina will be answered by her, I 14:26  |  Shlomzion 11/10/06
  30.   Margie in Tel Aviv 14:27  |  British academic 11/10/06
  31.   About the real referendum question 14:37  |  Jonathan S 11/10/06
  32.   j. m. segal 14:40  |  vladimir 11/10/06
  33.   Will, on the third world 14:40  |  FOX 11/10/06
  34.   Karim, I find myself addressing you again, this time about a 14:50  |  Shlomzion 11/10/06
  35.   Don`t you have a better trap to suggest 15:02  |  Joseph E . 11/10/06
  36.   natallie 15:04  |  bev 11/10/06
  37.   Karim 15:14  |  bev 11/10/06
  38.   Fox 15:26  |  bev 11/10/06
  39.   MOVE ISRAEL TO CANADA 15:31  |  ISHMAEL ISHMAEL 11/10/06
  40.   Very Good Idea 15:32  |  Danite 11/10/06
  41.   Fox Hello 15:43  |  Danite 11/10/06
  42.   #10 Will 15:44  |  Nik Miller 11/10/06
  43.   khalid 15:53  |  joshua 11/10/06
  44.   Enough is ENOUGH. PALS currently don`t deserve a state. 16:01  |  Vittorio 11/10/06
  45.   Ishamel 16:04  |  Danite 11/10/06
  46.   Indrajaya-#4 16:11  |  Daniel Leopold 11/10/06
  47.   Fox. post # 38 16:15  |  Akiva Patysh 11/10/06
  48.   Danite, one size fits all 16:24  |  FOX 11/10/06
  49.   Khalid-#21-your broken and scratched record again 16:35  |  Daniel Leopold 11/10/06
  50.   Oppressed and Helpless 16:59  |  BP Diplomacy 11/10/06
  51.   Another Haaretz degenerate--Didn`t they voted to destroy 17:08  |  Sal 11/10/06
  52.   Daniel Leopold 17:14  |  Khalid 11/10/06
  53.   THIS MAN IS THE SAME IDIOT... 17:31  |  bat yam 11/10/06
  54.   danite 17:39  |  jason 11/10/06
  55.   21 Palestinians choosing Peace? 17:40  |  Bruriah Sarah 11/10/06
  56.   Khalid: Who are the Jews? 17:47  |  Bruriah Sarah 11/10/06
  57.   Bruiah Sarah: who is a Jew is non of my business 18:06  |  Khalid 11/10/06
  58.   The Torah was not given to Jews, Moses was not Jewish 18:11  |  Khalid 11/10/06
  59.   Will - Israeli government most left wing in years 18:13  |  Jabadini 11/10/06
  60.   Khalid 18:14  |  bev 11/10/06
  61.   sound good but... 18:16  |  Daniel 11/10/06
  62.   Peace group 18:28  |  Margie in Tel Aviv 11/10/06
  63.   Khalid`s Moses 18:32  |  Paul 11/10/06
  64.   Khalid, killing sisters 18:32  |  FOX 11/10/06
  65.   SHOULD HAVE ASKED IN 1947 18:43  |  Marilyn 11/10/06
  66.   The lesson from Cyprus 18:49  |  student of Cyprus 11/10/06
  67.   A good idea 18:54  |  Itamar 11/10/06
  68.   This is a Joke, Right? 18:57  |  Ben Israel 11/10/06
  69.   Marilyn the unlearned 18:59  |  Margie in Tel Aviv 11/10/06
  70.   Marilyn the unlearned: 2 19:00  |  Margie in Tel Aviv 11/10/06
  71.   Khalid 19:04  |  Margie in Tel Aviv 11/10/06
  72.   Khalid finally gets honest about jihad and replacement theory 19:11  |  David Teich 11/10/06
  73.   Another Numnuts Jewish Lefty 19:15  |  Tod Zuckerman 11/10/06
  74.   Palestinians have already voted. 19:17  |  Voice of Reason 11/10/06
  75.   To be FAIR, have Jews in Israel vote on a referendum too 19:24  |  Joe 11/10/06
  76.   Khalid 19:26  |  Danite 11/10/06
  77.   KHALID: ISRAEL IS SOVEREIGN 19:28  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 11/10/06
  78.   Votes in the diaspora 19:39  |  ZBM 11/10/06
  79.   Jason 19:40  |  Danite 11/10/06
  80.   Khalid, From Where did you learn Moses was not Jewish 19:59  |  Aby 11/10/06
  81.   Cipora, so what Nazi Germany was also a sovereign state 20:05  |  Khalid 11/10/06
  82.   Danite: you are wrong 20:07  |  Khalid 11/10/06
  83.   If Moses wasn`t Jewish, was Mohammed a muslim? 20:10  |  Voice of Reason 11/10/06
  84.   David Teich: your tone reflects ideological insecurity 20:16  |  Khalid 11/10/06
  85.   Wrong Khalid 20:22  |  Danite 11/10/06
  86.   Joe 20:24  |  bev 11/10/06
  87.   Paul: you know your argument is devastated 20:30  |