The Israeli Jews heard the recent statements of aggression by the Syrian president much more clearly than his declarations of peace. These statements are apparently what caused a further decline in the already low rate of support for returning the Golan Heights, even in exchange for full peace, and in the small number who believe peace is possible in the foreseeable future.

Also very low is the rate of those who believe Israel may achieve peace with the Palestinians and Lebanon within the next five years. The prevailing assessment is that these three regional actors - the Palestinians, Syria and Lebanon - are not interested in an agreement with Israel, even though a majority of the Israeli-Jewish public views achieving peace, particularly with the Palestinians and Lebanon, as being in Israel's vital interests. The majority also thinks, nevertheless, that it is worthwhile for Israeli and Arab leaders to meet, even though most do not pin great hopes on such meetings bringing Israel and Arab states significantly closer.

The perception of conflict goes hand in hand, not surprisingly, with a high level of patriotism. An overwhelming majority say they are proud to be Israeli citizens, even though there is also a strong tendency toward self-criticism, as seen in the widespread view that some aspects of today's Israel are cause for shame. One of the perceived causes is the public service, which is seen as much less committed to serving the public. This seems linked to the growing impression that public-sector corruption is very extensive. At the same time, the Jewish public finds reasons to take pride in Israel. In particular these include scientific and technological achievements, the security forces, and economic achievements. The social welfare system, however, appears to be a source of shame.

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Those are the main findings of the Peace Index survey carried out on October 3-4.

War, not peace

The prevailing view (48 percent) is that given the two kinds of messages recently voiced by Syrian President Bashar Assad, the real ones are the declarations of war. Only 19 percent believe his peace messages are genuine; the rest cannot decide which messages are real. Not surprisingly, then, three-fourths of the public rate the probability of achieving Israeli-Syrian peace in the next five years as very low or low (55 percent and 22 percent, respectively), 18 percent as moderate, and only 5 percent as high or very high. That helps explain the negligible percentage that favors signing a full peace treaty with Syria in return for a full withdrawal from the Golan Heights - only 16 percent (70 percent oppose it and the rest do not have a clear opinion). The Jewish public's level of support for a peace settlement with Syria in exchange for the Golan used to be higher - about one-third, though the opposition to this formula was always higher.

Syria, it turns out, is not the only regional actor with whom Israelis see very little hope for peace. Only 10 percent think there is a good chance for an agreement with the Palestinians within the next five years; about two-thirds (64 percent) view the chances as low or very low. This applies to Lebanon as well: Eighteen percent see the chances as high or very high, and 56 percent as low or very low. These expectations apparently derive from the widespread opinion that none of the three actors are interested in peace with Israel. Only 23 percent think the Palestinians are very interested or interested in peace; a similar rate holds that view of Lebanon; and even fewer - 17 percent - believe Syria is interested or very interested in peace.

Nevertheless, the majority believes achieving peace with the Palestinians and Lebanon is vital for Israel: Sixty-one percent say so about the Palestinians, and 54 percent about Lebanon. The picture regarding Syria is somewhat different: Less than half of respondents - 48 percent - view peace with it as vital to Israeli interests. Presumably, this outlook contributes to the sweeping opposition to returning the Golan as part of a peace treaty with Syria.

This recognition of the essential nature of peace apparently bolsters the view that meetings should continue between Israeli and Arab leaders. Some 73 percent said they are in favor of meetings like the one recently reported between Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and a senior Saudi figure. Only 38 percent, however, think such meetings are likely to comprise significant steps toward Arab-Israeli conciliation.

Pride and shame

Apparently, the feeling that peace is not attainable, and that the Arab world is seeking war instead, strengthens Israeli-Jewish patriotism. Some 88.5 percent agree or emphatically agree with the statement that they would rather be citizens of Israel than of any other country (10 percent disagree, and the rest do not have a clear opinion). This is more than in 2003, when the rates of agreement and disagreement came to 79.4 percent and 16.4 percent, respectively.

Nevertheless, 57 percent said some aspects of Israel give cause for shame. What are the sources of pride in Israel and what are the sources of shame? Topping reasons for pride are science and technology achievements, with 87 percent. After this come the security forces, with 61, and economic achievements, with 55 percent. However, Israel's social welfare system is a source of pride for only 20.5 percent of respondents, while 75 percent are not very proud or not at all proud of it.

Another major cause of general dissatisfaction is the public service: About three-fourths of the public - 73 percent - think many or most social service workers are corrupt. This pessimistic atmosphere apparently affects the public's view of the functioning of Israeli democracy. Overall, on a scale of 0 (very poor) to 100 (very good), Israeli democracy currently gets an average grade of 57, whereas the Jewish public today grades its functioning 10 years ago with an average of 67. In other words, there is a general sense that the state of democracy has declined.

The findings for the Arab public are interesting in this context. Here too an overwhelming majority, albeit smaller than among the Jewish public - 73 percent - agrees it is preferable to be an Israeli citizen than a citizen of any other country. However, the percentage of those who say some things about Israel cause them shame is clearly higher - 71 percent. An especially interesting finding is the average grade the Arab sector gives Israeli democracy today - 50, compared to 47 for the situation ten years ago. In other words, perhaps as expected, while the Arab sector indeed gives Israeli democracy a lower grade than the Jewish public gives it, the Jewish public sees a decline over time - whereas the Arabs view the present state as the same, or perhaps even slightly better, than the past.

As for relations with the Arab world, again we find the perceptions of the Arab citizens of Israel are mostly a mirror image of the Jews'. A majority of Israeli Arabs think the Palestinians (71 percent), the Syrians (67 percent) and the Lebanese (52 percent) are currently interested in reaching a settlement with Israel.

The Arabs also believe more so than the Jews that reaching a peace agreement with these three actors is a vital Israeli interest. Some 86.5 percent think so regarding the Palestinians (versus 61 percent of the Jews), Syria (71.9 versus 47.6) and Lebanon (78.2 versus 44.2). These gaps probably explain why the Arab public tends to be somewhat more optimistic than the Jewish public about Israel's chances of reaching a peace agreement with these three actors within the next five years, although the Arab public does tend to be quite pessimistic. Some 22.7 percent of the Arabs, compared to 5.4 percent of the Jews, see a very high or moderately high chance of reaching an agreement with the Palestinian Authority, and these rates for Syria are 25.8 percent and 5.4 percent, respectively, and 25.9 percent and 17.7 percent for Lebanon.

The peace indexes for this month were as follows: The general Oslo Index came in at 33.0, including 29.0 for the Jewish sample; the general Negotiation Index came in at 45.9, with 42.2 for the Jewish sample; and the Syria Index came in at 32.3, with 26.1 for the Jewish sample.

The Peace Index Project is conducted at the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Studies of Tel Aviv University, headed by Prof. Ephraim Yaar and Prof. Tamar Hermann. The telephone interviews were carried out by the B. I. Cohen Institute of Tel Aviv University on October 3-4, and included 614 interviewees who represent the adult Jewish and Arab population of Israel (including the territories and the kibbutzim). The sampling error for a sample of this size is about 4.5 percent in each direction.