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Iranian demonstrators hold posters of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran.
(AP)
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Last update - 20:02 28/12/2009
Iran unrest isn't a riot, it's an earthquake
By Zvi Bar'el
Tags: Israel News, Iran Reformists 

To refer to what has been happening in Tehran over the last few days as "riots" is to gravely underestimate the power of the unrest erupting in the country since the June elections. The latest events are best described as further symptoms of an ongoing earthquake.

The country has seen major events since June - the death of Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, the reformists' spiritual leader; the heckling of a speech by former president Mohammad Khatami; the violence of the Ashura holiday; the show trials; the revelations about torture and executions. These factors have been coming together to create the perfect backdrop for the street protests that have refused to abate for nearly half a year.

The longer the demonstrations go on, the clearer it becomes that they're not aimed only at President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, but also at Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The chants of "Death to the Dictator" and the placards with caricatures of the leader indicate that the protest movement is changing gears.
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Khamenei's rule and the regime that he represents are not endangered yet, as Khamenei controls the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij paramilitary. The authorities' response seems to indicate the regime still sees suppression by force as the best remedy for discontent. The free use of live ammunition against protesters, which has claimed the lives of nine so far, is ample illustration of the official strategy. However, those casualties, and especially one of them, the nephew of opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi, are likely to inspire more rallies and demonstrations in the coming days.

These events may well turn out to be a critical standoff between the regime and the opposition, between theologians opposing Khamenei and the radical clerics supporting him, and between the anti-Ahmadinejad conservatives in the Iranian parliament and the president's supporters.

As the sides continue to face off, the possibility for dialogue between the parties dims, and the likelihood of administering the country through political maneuvering without direct military intervention grows slimmer by the day. The recent decision of the U.S. Congress to enact further sanctions on Iran is contributing to the gap between the rulers and the citizenry, but this decision may also work in the regime's favor in its bid it present the opposition as friends of the American foe. What's needed now from the Americans is restraint until the direction of the events becomes clear.
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  1.   Iran 07:10  |  BIBI 28/12/09
  2.   next supreme leader will be even worse 08:20  |  watcher 28/12/09
  3.   Israeli politicians should remain silent 08:29  |  Neil 28/12/09
  4.   Iranian unrest. 10:35  |  David Nigel Braham 28/12/09
  5.   Nobody should interfere. Or should they.? 10:36  |  Stephen 28/12/09
  6.   #3 neil, bibi said the exact same thing about the attack of 9/11 10:51  |  eric 28/12/09
  7.   Ahmedinejad is relying upon the ignorance of its people 11:12  |  mehmet 28/12/09
  8.   to Mehmet 11:54  |  CM 28/12/09
  9.   CM thanks for the insight. 12:14  |  Petra 28/12/09
  10.   Zvi Barel, The next earthquake should be in Israel 13:16  |  Dutch 28/12/09
  11.   Without clear leadership of the opposition the whole 13:26  |  Kris Lazar 28/12/09
  12.   Israel and other countries can help with ARMS for freedom 13:45  |  Realist 28/12/09
  13.   CM. 14:01  |  sandra chitayat 28/12/09
  14.   In response to Mehmet. 14:56  |  sandra chitayat 28/12/09
  15.   CM USSR was not a democracy but was much more civilized 15:06  |  mehmet 28/12/09
  16.   Western leaders should be quiet, 15:06  |  Lynn 28/12/09
  17.   Don`t give the regime oxygen to maneuver 15:20  |  allang 28/12/09
  18.   to mehmet 15:59  |  Dan 28/12/09
  19.   No one can stand in silence as civilians are slaughtered 16:22  |  No to silence 28/12/09
  20.   Silence: Where are the Comrades? 16:30  |  ankhfnkhonsu 28/12/09
  21.   Restraint? 17:55  |  Ehud 28/12/09
  22.   Iranian Unrest 18:06  |  Doug Thomas 28/12/09
  23.   Iran`s regime. 18:17  |  Catarin 28/12/09
  24.   At least in Iran........ 18:46  |  Self hating Jew 28/12/09
  25.   can u say cia 20:46  |  james 28/12/09
  26.   moral support and condemnation of the regime; YES! 23:01  |  eric 28/12/09
  27.   #15 "iran populated by ignorant and poor people", mehmet? 23:08  |  eric 28/12/09
  28.   The protestors are doomed! 06:56  |  Turfseer 29/12/09
  29.   an iraninan 19:58  |  nasibeh 30/12/09
  30.   Gene Sharp`s Real Iranian Non Violent Movement 13:40  |  fan of gene sharp 05/01/10
  31.   Mehmet is Right - let us be honest and also fair 13:50  |  toUnderstand-Poor 05/01/10
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