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Nuclear rainy day
By Yossi Melman

Now that Turkey has joined Iran, Libya and Egypt in demanding that Israel give up its nuclear weapons, or at least open its nuclear facilities to international inspection, it is time to start worrying. Turkish Prime Minister Racep Tayyip Erdogan has displayed open hostility toward Israel since Operation Cast Lead, and he appears to be leading his government toward abandoning the strategic alliance between the two countries. Now, his call to curb Israel's nuclear program has added momentum to a worrying trend, which is gaining momentum, even among Israel's friends in the West.

The backdrop is the international effort to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear arms. Why stop Iran, many people across the globe are asking, when Israel possesses such weaponry, if foreign media reports are true?
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Once again, we are hearing the old idea of declaring the Middle East a nuclear-free zone, or in other words, making Israel get rid of any nukes it may have. Israel has no objection in principle, but in practice buries every initiative by insisting that first all the countries in the region must sign peace treaties with it. Only after satisfactory security arrangements are in place will talks begin on dumping all weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear ones.

Some experts in Israel, although they may not say so openly, admit there is a certain logic to the proposals.

Formally, we can explain why Iran, not Israel, is facing these demands. Iran is a signatory to the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty; Israel is not. Under that convention, Iran has inspection agreements with the International Atomic Energy Agency that entail a great many obligations. Nonetheless, it tried to hide the fact that it had set up uranium enrichment facilities in Natanz and Qom, and that it had secretly acquired centrifuges. It also concealed its plutonium extraction plant under construction at Arak, and has prevented IAEA inspectors from visiting some of its installations. Clearly, this behavior arouses suspicion that Tehran is trying to hide something.

Prickly situation

The NPT creates a prickly situation. Its signatories have to allow IAEA inspectors into its facilities. Countries that have not signed, like Israel, Pakistan and India, are not subject to inspection. This was the political and legal reality that the international community accepted when the treaty went into effect in 1970. Many countries sense the inequality that has accompanied the convention, and it's clear to the major powers as well that there is something wrong with how the world supervises nuclear weapons.

That dissatisfaction was behind the suggestion of a new convention two decades ago, the Fissile Material Cut Off Treaty, which would limit nuclear arsenals by banning weapons grade uranium and plutonium. The idea was to freeze the status quo. Countries that had fissile materials would declare how much they had. For example, if Israel had 200 nuclear warheads, and uranium and plutonium cores, as some foreign reports have claimed, it would have to declare them.

In order to advance the proposed convention, a Conference on Disarmament was set up in Geneva, which now has 65 member states. Israel is one of them, and it has declared its support for the proposed FMCT. The initiative gained momentum during the Clinton Administration, but then some countries, including Egypt, demanded that inspectors be tasked with enforcement, like with the IAEA.

Countries including India, Pakistan and Israel oppose this, claiming it would harm their national security. For example, the Israelis argue, the inspectors would be able to demand admission to the Military Intelligence and Mossad bases at Pi Glilot, north of Tel Aviv, claiming they suspect that fissile materials are being kept there.

Either way, when George W. Bush was elected U.S. president, he declared he opposed the inspection proposal, and the discussions were effectively deadlocked.

But now, once again there's a president who has raised the banner of global nuclear disarmament, or at least limitation. The Conference on Disarmament met in May, and the American delegate announced that Barack Obama wanted to move things forward.

There's a long way to go before a convention is formulated, but Israel should not ignore the process. There is an increasing global awareness of the need to prevent nuclear proliferation. More voices are calling for the total disbandment of the nuclear club.

Israel should prepare to face this. The moment may come when the gates to the Dimona reactor will have to be opened, or when Israel will be called upon to declare how much fissile material it has.

Should Israel's policy of nuclear ambiguity be changed? Most experts say no. This policy is successful, but in an orderly state, substitutes and alternatives are always at hand. However, can leaders who turn a blind eye to the water crisis be expected to be prepared for a nuclear rainy day?
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