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General Amos Yadlin, the head of Military Intelligence for the Israel Defense Forces.
 Tess Scheflan
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Last update - 12:14 04/11/2009
ANALYSIS / Israel preparing public for a new war in Gaza
By Avi Issacharoff and Amos Harel
Tags: Hamas, Gaza war, Israel news

Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin, director of Military Intelligence, announced Tuesday that Hamas launched a rocket some 60 kilometers into the sea, apparently as an experiment. Such a rocket, if fired from the northernmost point of the Gaza Strip, could strike the southern cities of the Gush Dan area - including Rishon Letzion, Holon and Bat Yam - and possibly reach as far as Tel Aviv itself.

Although Yadlin didn't specify the type of the weapon used, it appears to be a standard, foreign-made rocket smuggled into Gaza. Yadlin told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that Hamas has accumulated an arsenal of rockets slightly larger than the arsenal it possessed before last winter's Operation Cast Lead.

The experiment hardly caught Israeli intelligence by surprise, as it had assumed Hamas had acquired a similar type of rocket several months ago. However, the importance of Yadlin's report should not be underestimated as this is the first tangible piece of evidence that Hamas holds a weapon capable of striking Gush Dan. It would seem Hamas has used the lull in fighting with Israel to not only restore, but improve its capabilities. Still, and similar to Hezbollah, restoring the arsenal hardly testifies to restoring motivation to confront Israel militarily.
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The rocket was fired in rough weather, apparently in an attempt to hide the experiment from Israeli eyes. But Israel's radar installations registered the launch, even if the exact spot where the missile hit the sea is unknown. Israel believes Hamas considers the new rocket a strategic asset, a "doomsday weapon" of sorts, and therefore avoided publicizing the experimental launch, in the hope of using the weapon as a surprise during some later confrontation.

If the rocket has in fact been smuggled through a tunnel, a test launch may have been aimed to see whether the weapon survived the journey - by sea from Iran to Egypt, and then to Gaza.

Since Cast Lead, a huge international effort - involving Israeli, American, European and Egyptian cooperation - has been underway to prevent smuggling into Gaza. International media has reported that the Israel Air Force bombed weapon convoys in Sudan. Be that as it may, the Gaza siege is not airtight. The smuggling market there employs over 15,000 people working in over 600 tunnels.

Smuggling longer-range rockets into the Strip does somewhat alter the balance of deterrence. Hamas is also busy improving its own production capabilities, as well as equipping itself with new anti-tank missiles and older anti-aircraft missiles.

Preparing the public

Yadlin's announcement should be seen as part of an attempt by the military to prepare the public for a new attack against the Strip. The General Staff is not remotely eager for another round, especially with the Goldstone report conclusions still haunting commanders of the previous operation when they travel abroad.

Hamas, for it's part, is in no hurry for a confrontation either. Gaza has not yet recovered from the devastation of Cast Lead, and the organization knows it would pay in heavy casualties if the conflict reignites.

What Israel should be doing in the meantime is improving its anti-missile defense systems. Iron Dome, the Israeli answer to the Katyusha and Qassam rockets, is moving along satisfactorily, and the first battery of its interceptor missiles should be deployed in the second half of 2010.

The official response from Hamas has been somewhat confused. At first, a spokesman for the organization's military wing, Abu Obeida, refused to confirm Yadlin's statement on the missile launch. Obeida remarked that "the occupation can say whatever it likes, and whatever it says is dubious." While this statement might improve Hamas deterrence against Israel, such an opaque statement carries a political price for Hamas: A perceived threat can only improve Israel's position ahead of the UN General Assembly discussion of the Goldstone report.

A few hours later, Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhum issued a new statement saying the Israeli announcement was aimed to influence world public opinion ahead of the UN debate. Barhum said the diplomatic crisis triggered by the report "has led the Zionist enemy to make up excuses in an attempt to instigate public opinion against Hamas."

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      1.   Cast Lead Part II is overdue 05:16  |  Chaim Ben Kahan 04/11/09
      2.   chaim ben kahan 1 05:55  |  potobac 04/11/09
      3.   A Selective Blockade? 06:41  |  Hugh 04/11/09
      4.   Hamas founght very poorly in the Gaza War 06:52  |  MARK KLEIN, M.D. 04/11/09
      5.   #4, Mark Klein 07:12  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 04/11/09
      6.   In Israel a war is the answer to all political problems 07:14  |  Palestinian Brit 04/11/09
      7.   Some unconcious irony here 07:15  |  Colin Wright 04/11/09
      8.   It will be quite a while until the next war 07:18  |  Joey 04/11/09
      9.   Existential Threat 07:42  |  blash 04/11/09
      10.   Mark Klein 07:42  |  Daniela 04/11/09
      11.   be prepared 08:42  |  rm 04/11/09
      12.   IDF preparing a new war? By inferring from what Yadlin said??? 08:52  |  S 04/11/09
      13.   Anti-missile defense is a waste of time and money 08:52  |  BornIn The USA 04/11/09
      14.   very problematic for Israel 08:55  |  good guy 04/11/09
      15.   Chaim Ben Kahan 08:58  |  Mark of Lewiston 04/11/09
      16.   Collective Punishment. 09:04  |  B. Gold 04/11/09
      17.   # 1 i agree with you, chaim 09:11  |  eric 04/11/09
      18.   Good guy in Tel Aviv 09:21  |  sh 04/11/09
      19.   #13, Mark, why don`t you explain 09:23  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 04/11/09
      20.   #15, eric 09:26  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 04/11/09
      21.   They should not preapare us - we are ready long ago 09:36  |  Vitaly 04/11/09
      22.   Excellent quality journalism 09:39  |  sofia al riachy 04/11/09
      23.   Excellent quality journalism 09:39  |  sofia al riachy 04/11/09
      24.   19 Cipora - Iran Playing the Great Game 10:13  |  Mark of Lewiston 04/11/09
      25.   CJK - Dr. Spooner or Dr Freud? 10:25  |  sh 04/11/09
      26.   Mark of Lewiston 10:42  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 04/11/09
      27.   Chaim Ben Kahan 10:59  |  stella westwell 04/11/09
      28.   c j k 26 11:06  |  potobac 04/11/09
      29.   ROCKETS 11:23  |  L Barber 04/11/09
      30.   sh, what of Egypt`s side of the siege? 11:24  |  EgyptBigPlace 04/11/09
      31.   Cipora? 11:44  |  John Spear 04/11/09
      32.   Answers to EgyptBigPlace 11:45  |  sh 04/11/09
      33.   we don`t need no preparation 12:11  |  ken lanezakh tokhal 04/11/09
      34.   kahan-so is cast lead part 666 13:06  |  mission barely begun 04/11/09
      35.   # 7 Colin Wright; There is a party here that definitely needs to 13:07  |  IAF veteran 04/11/09
      36.   If only Gandhi would still be alive and could teach.... 13:19  |  Swiss (Dino) 04/11/09
      37.   eventually Gaza will have to be demilitarized or a war will be - 14:14  |  ivo 04/11/09
      38.   NO Hunger in Gaza !!!! 14:14  |  Ran 04/11/09
      39.   IAF Veteran # 35 a friend that demands money for that friendship 14:19  |  ANY 04/11/09
      40.   #24 Mark of Lewiston 14:28  |  Der Zweifler 04/11/09
      41.   Hugh, i haven`t seen any starving Gazan`s 14:55  |  Anthro 04/11/09
      42.   Israel responds to Goldstone? 15:38  |  Mark Lincoln 04/11/09
      43.   New atrocities in Gaza 15:42  |  Sher Mohammad 04/11/09
      44.   #6 Palestinia Brit 15:44  |  Daniela 04/11/09
      45.   Know What Would Be Better? 15:53  |  Yosemite 04/11/09
      46.   viva freedom fighters 16:16  |  Thabiet 04/11/09
      47.   NO PEACE 16:37  |  Carole, UK 04/11/09
      48.   Propaganada before the invasion 16:42  |  charro 04/11/09
      49.   #39 Any: You don`t have ANY idea what you are talking about.NONE! 16:53  |  IAF veteran 04/11/09
      50.   CAST LEAD 16:58  |  David Barnes 04/11/09
      51.   Atleast Hamas will get expelled from Gaza 17:05  |  Israeliguy 04/11/09
      52.   To ANY...you said it! 17:27  |  Silvienne 04/11/09
      53.   To Daniela... 17:29  |  Silvienne 04/11/09
      54.   Some more hot lead or hot lava this time.... 17:47  |  Hazak 04/11/09
      55.   IAF Veteran # 49 a perspective for you to consider 18:15  |  ANY 04/11/09
      56.   Der Zweifler 18:23  |  ibsen 04/11/09
      57.   Joey 18:27  |  rigma 04/11/09
      58.   #31, John Spear, Gaza was never a country 18:42  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 04/11/09
      59.   #56 ibsen 19:31  |  Der Zweifler 04/11/09
      60.   War is not a correct adjective 19:37  |  American 04/11/09
      61.   #56 ibsen, continued 19:54  |  Der Zweifler 04/11/09
      62.   To Ms. Kohn... 20:19  |  Silvienne 04/11/09
      63.   IAF veteran reply to Colin Wright 20:37  |  Barbara Kirchhoff 04/11/09
      64.   Might Makes Right 20:54  |  Jeremy 04/11/09
      65.   Had we stayed in Gaza, we`d never have had to fight ANY war there 21:41  |  Chaim 04/11/09
      66.   Cipora Kohn Gaza never was a country 21:46  |  ANY 04/11/09
      67.   I doubt if the war Israel is preparing 21:52  |  Mark Lincoln 04/11/09
      68.   This time, we`ll call the murders, "Operation Eat Lead!" 22:19  |  Lese Majeste 04/11/09
      69.   Silvienne 00:20  |  sh 05/11/09
      70.   #66 01:12  |  ReallySmart 05/11/09
      71.   Another David and Goliath episode ! 03:49  |  Mrs. Simon 05/11/09
      72.   Shameless 04:12  |  r cummings 05/11/09
      73.   Why not @66 06:05  |  Al 05/11/09
      74.   To Silvienne 07:02  |  Daniela 05/11/09
      75.   Daniela - the article is telling Israeli`s to prepare for war 07:37  |  Palestinian Brit 05/11/09
      76.   No 58 - Gaza has over a million inhabitants 07:42  |  Palestinian Brit 05/11/09
      77.   No 58 - Gaza has over a million inhabitants 07:42  |  Palestinian Brit 05/11/09
      78.   Rogue state? 07:47  |  Palestinian Brit 05/11/09
      79.   fostering fear 09:35  |  Carol Scheller 05/11/09
      80.   Palestinian Brit 09:46  |  Daniela 05/11/09
      81.   Silvienne 10:22  |  Daniela 05/11/09
      82.   Der Zweifler 1 12:17  |  ibsen 05/11/09
      83.   Der Zweifler 2 12:18  |  ibsen 05/11/09
      84.   EgyptBigPlace 12:25  |  Petra 05/11/09
      85.   Ibsen 14:54  |  Der Zweifler 05/11/09
      86.   Cast Lead Part II is overdue: part 3 16:05  |  Redzuan 05/11/09
      87.   Der Zweifler 16:57  |  ibsen 05/11/09
      88.   Israle prepares public for war 18:46  |  donna 05/11/09
      89.   Ibsen #87 18:49  |  Der Zweifler 05/11/09
      90.   ANY + Colin Wright 18:55  |  rich 05/11/09
      91.   Cast Lead !! should begin before the new year 20:53  |  BradL 05/11/09
      92.   TO Daniela #80 & 81 09:25  |  Steve Beikirch 06/11/09
      93.   To Daniela... 19:19  |  Silvienne 06/11/09
      94.   #90, rich......rubbish! 19:21  |  Silvienne 06/11/09
      95.   To BradL... 19:23  |  Silvienne 06/11/09
      96.   There are no Israeli civilians Cippy... 20:24  |  BBSNews 06/11/09
      97.   mr POTObac 20:42  |  sani 06/11/09
      98.   Massive Gaza war?? #91 BradL 20:29  |  Ron 07/11/09
      99.   TO Daniela #81 06:18  |  Steve Beikirch 08/11/09
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