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Zvi Bar'el / Fuel, but no spark, for third intifada
By Zvi Bar'el
Tags: Israel news, Zvi Bar'el 

The report published this week by the director of the mental health unit in the Palestinian Health Ministry, Dr. Hazem Ashur, can be of use to researchers of suicide attacks, the salient symbol of the second intifada. According to the report, the number of suicide attempts recorded in the Palestinian Authority so far this year, including those that succeeded, stands at 223, of which 102 took place in the Nablus district alone. The causes are diverse: from mental stress and chronic mental illness to social and economic pressure resulting from Israeli restrictions that make it impossible to find work, as well as the overall high unemployment rate, the siege imposed on the territories and the absence of hope for a better life. Most of the suicide attempts, by the way, were by women and unmarried people.

If a new intifada had erupted, many of these attempts probably would have succeeded and been categorized as "suicide for national reasons." About 150 suicide attacks have been perpetrated since the start of the intifada in September 2000, as compared with 21 such attacks before that date - despite the fact that even before 2000 Palestinians had sufficient reasons to take their own lives. Moreover, the potential for suicide attacks has still not diminished; what's lacking is the spark to make them happen.

The causes for the previous intifadas still exist: the negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians are going nowhere; the national aspiration to establish an independent Palestinian state is not being realized, whether because there is no negotiating partner in Israel or because the Palestinian leadership is incapable of making practical decisions; and the economic situation, while it has improved, is still far from providing the standard of living the Palestinians expect or the income level that was the norm in the territories before the second intifada.
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However, it would be dangerous to draw conclusions based on data without a context. Despite the vision espoused by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a firm economy is not a defensive shield against a national uprising. For example, on the eve of the second intifada, "only" 21 percent of the Palestinian population lived below the poverty line, compared to 46 percent at the end of 2001. The PA's gross national income stood at about $5 billion at the end of 1999, and unemployment at about 11 percent. Nevertheless, the intifada broke out. Whereas now, despite the gloomy situation and the absence of any real hope of better days, a new intifada cannot easily get off the ground. For a moment, a few weeks ago, when the Temple Mount was "in danger" and stones flew through the air again, it looked as though the phoenix was rising, but in short order it returned to ashes.

External conditions are apparently necessary for an intifada, but not sufficient. In an article on the Internet site Elaph, the Egyptian thinker Kamal Gabriel explains that at the moment the Palestinians lack both a universally shared ideological authority and a leadership that is convinced of its ability to conduct an intifada. A religious source of authority, he notes, like a battle for the Temple Mount, cannot fire up the Palestinians: The fight for Islam is not about quality of life, national aspirations and the Palestinians' distinctive identity. The second intifada is an example of this: Although it was triggered by fears of a Jewish takeover of the Temple Mount, it quickly became a war for the Palestinian national home.

Where are the Arabs?

According to Gabriel, another source of authority, pan-Arabism, also cannot serve the Palestinians in their struggle. A struggle in the name of Arab identity, aimed at demonstrating that "Arabism" can find a worthy solution for all its peoples, enhances the good name of the Arab family but not of the Palestinian one. This is even more pronounced when pan-Arabism and its institutions, such as the Arab League, have shown utter impotence and been a resounding failure in solving the Palestinian question. The call "Where are the Arabs?" - uttered by a Palestinian woman whose son was killed by Israeli fire - no longer moves anyone.

"The Arabs are using the Palestinian problem as a drainage channel for all their rivers of crises and problems," Gabriel maintains. In other words, the Arab states place Palestine at the top of their agenda only in order to avoid dealing with their own problems. Accordingly, he concludes, the Palestine issue "will be the last of all the Arab problems that will be resolved." The real problem, Gabriel says, is the absence of a pragmatic source of authority that is prepared to take the view that life is not made of daydreams or of tremendous victories. And in the absence of sources of authority that can supply fuel for an intifada, the Palestinian problem shrinks to its local, nonstrategic dimensions. A Palestinian intifada will not erupt in order to placate the Muslim or the Arab world. But in order to serve the Palestinian state, it requires the feeling that it is serving the whole Palestinian population and is above any faction, organization or movement. The split between Fatah and Hamas, the tension between the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, the distinction between the pursuers of a peace agreement and its opponents, between what is perceived as a religious regime in Gaza and a secular, pro-Western regime in the West Bank - this state of affairs is probably the most effective block against an intifada.

True, the Palestinians fought against Israel even when the rivalry between Hamas and Fatah was at its height and coordination between them was rare. However, in contrast to the period of the intifada, now each movement has its own territory, its own government and its own means of existence. The result is that Gaza did not succeed in dragging the West Bank into the war of Qassam rockets, and that if the leadership in the West Bank decides to initiate a new uprising, it will have to betray its principles and admit that the path it adopted with regard to the conflict with Israel is mistaken, and that Hamas was actually right to take the road it did.

The threat issued by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to Hamas provides the best evidence that no new intifada is on the agenda: If Hamas does not sign the reconciliation agreement drawn up by Egypt after prolonged and wearisome talks, Abbas will declare elections at the legally appointed time, in January 2010. This will mean the consolidation of the split between Hamas and Fatah, between Gaza and the West Bank, between one political road and another. In that case Abbas will be able to regain his legitimacy, but only in one part of Palestine.

If Hamas signs the agreement, the elections will probably be pushed back to June, in order to give the two movements time to unify the ranks, create joint mechanisms and reach agreement on the future of Palestine, or at least on how the negotiations with Israel will be conducted.

However, if the intra-Palestinian dispute is for the time being a wall against a sweeping intifada, it is not an obstacle to individual terror attacks. Rock-throwing, stabbings and even suicide bombings are the result of personal issues, which do not require broad national agreement. The frustrated person at the checkpoint, the student who did not get a permit to study abroad and sees his future shattered, the woman who lost her baby because the permit that would have allowed her to get to a hospital was delayed, or a teenager out to avenge the death of a family member: all of them can find a violent channel of action or a reason to become part of Dr. Hazem Ashur's statistics.

Related articles:
  • ANALYSIS / Third intifada unlikely, despite Jerusalem tensions
  • Israel worried Fatah may resume suicide attacks
  • What are the chances of a third Palestinian Intifada?
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      1.   Israel has achieved the goals of the rabid right 23:48  |  Mark Lincoln 23/10/09
      2.   #1..Mark Lincoln 05:11  |  Malone 24/10/09
      3.   God protect us! 06:09  |  sol kashberg 24/10/09
      4.   The Muslims are now convinced that terror is the most ... 08:41  |  B. Gold 24/10/09
      5.   the spark was Saddam $10.000 09:20  |  jacques 24/10/09
      6.   there`s fuel and, sparks, but no point in starting a fire 09:52  |  peacemonger 24/10/09
      7.   to # 4 10:36  |  Palestinian 24/10/09
      8.   Most of the suicide attempts were by women .. 10:48  |  Jane 24/10/09
      9.   The Spark to set it off, might and propably will come soon enough 11:27  |  Kris Lazar 24/10/09
      10.   No sparks 15:08  |  Lola 24/10/09
      11.   Suicide by women 15:12  |  Anonymous 24/10/09
      12.   interesting thinker, Kamal Gabriel - 15:42  |  ivo 24/10/09
      13.   Palestinians like to blame Israel for their own problems 19:17  |  perfessor 24/10/09
      14.   #7 - are there any improvements? 21:31  |  martin knopfman 24/10/09
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