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Last update - 08:22 22/10/2009
Does Iran draft deal change game or shift players?
By Amos Harel
Tags: Amos Harel, Israel News 

Our region is a far cry from peace, as exciting as the reports from Vienna might appear. The actual deal between the world powers and Iran is yet to come, but the draft agreement proposed by the IAEA is a serious move forward, as is the positive reception of it by the sides at the table.

The draft is a more detailed outline of a plan already presented in the first round of talks earlier this month. According to the draft, Iran would transfer 1.2 tons of enriched uranium, 75 percent of its total stock, to Russia, and then to France. It would then get back low-enriched uranium, which can be used for the small nuclear research facility in Tehran, but is not weapons-grade.

This compromise slows the Iranian race for nuclear capability by a year or two. It certainly doesn't stop the nuclear project, and Iran is not giving up the bomb.
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Quite the contrary: It gets international recognition of its right to enrich uranium, ostensibly for peaceful purposes, while other, slower channels toward obtaining nuclear weapons remain open.

Will the Iranians agree to the deal? Unless they resort to their customary foot-dragging, an answer is expected by tomorrow.

However, few would be surprised if Tehran brings up some more last-minute reservations, to try and drag some more concessions from the international community.

If the Iranian regime does take the IAEA draft as it is, it may well be motivated by internal political calculations. The elections in June, with their allegations of fraud and the crackdown on the ensuing protests, have shaken the confidence of the mullahs.

Refusing a deal could lead to sanctions, which would encumber the Iranians' daily lives to a degree the regime considers dangerous. Assuming that staying in power is it's top priority, even the nuclear program can wait a while.

Some loopholes certainly arise from reading what we know so far about the draft. What will happen to the enriched uranium staying in Iran?

And, as Donald Rumsfeld once poignantly observed, "There are things we don't know we don't know."

How many secret nuclear installation are there still in Iran, beyond the one recently exposed at Qom? The CIA, according to a statement it gave to Congress, believes there could be about a dozen. And who guarantees Iran won't continue its pursuit of nuclear arms even as it is feted by the international community?

The one clear winner from the progress in the talks is the United States. After all, President Obama vowed to stop the bomb, not the enrichment of uranium. His backers in Washington will praise the draft agreement as a clear testimony to the success of his strategy of dialogue, the complete opposite of his predecessor's course.

Obama is no Chamberlain, appeasing Hitler/Ahmadinejad, although its safe to predict we'll hear the comparison plenty in the next few days.

But the appropriate historic parallel here is George W. Bush's policy toward North Korea, with a similar risk of an administration falling in love with a flawed and half-baked agreement, and going on to justify it even if it's blatantly violated by the other side.

Israel's dilemma

The tightest spot in the agreement scenario is reserved for Israel, which will have to decide if it becomes a team player, joining general optimism, or if it maintains its profound skepticism and goes on with threatening predictions.

Changing a political line from sour skepticism to manifest hope is a tough move. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who earnestly believes the mission of his second term in office is saving Israel from a second Holocaust at the hands of Iran, will be particularly torn. Tehran is more than merely the top priority on Netanyahu's political agenda. It's also the ultimate excuse to give the Americans in avoiding any progress in the negotiations with the Palestinians.

Most Western experts agree Israel would not attack Iran without coordinating its moves with the United States; the approaching compromise appears to reduce the chances of an Israeli attack in Iran in the coming year.

But Iran would remain a sworn enemy of Israel, while the agreement, if it is signed, will only cement the radical regime against its opposition. Tehran will not stop supporting Hamas and Hezbollah, and it's doubtful anyone in the West will even ask it to.

The threat against the Israeli home front remains, with or without Vienna. This makes the timing of the joint American-Israeli "Juniper Cobra" exercise all the more interesting. American ships, missiles and radar system on Israeli territory on such a wide scale and with such high-profile coverage (including a joint press conference this morning) sends a clear message about America's commitment to Israeli security.

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      1.   Don`t fret 06:55  |  Colin Wright 22/10/09
      2.   Well, gosh, Harel..... 07:03  |  Johnboy 22/10/09
      3.   Human nature 07:31  |  Arieka 22/10/09
      4.   The full Donald Rumsfeld quote: Unknown unknowns 07:32  |  Mladen Andrijasevic 22/10/09
      5.   Don`t worry, the threat can be moved up again 08:14  |  Richard Pearce 22/10/09
      6.   same game, Iran plays hide the nuke, world plays dumb 09:27  |  peter rouget 22/10/09
      7.   Amos, it does neither 11:25  |  Chris Linthwaite 22/10/09
      8.   Just solves problems for everyone 13:28  |  Mark Lincoln 22/10/09
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