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Turning back time
By Shaul Arieli
Tags: Israel News 

In the wake of Operation Cast Lead, the belief took root in Israel that its results would be judged not necessarily by what was immediately apparent, but by how the campaign would be able to leverage long-term regional processes. Egypt would prevent the continued smuggling into Gaza and bring about intra-Palestinian reconciliation, which would see Hamas subordinate to the leadership of Mahmoud Abbas, while Washington would work toward renewing talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority and thus topple the basis for Iran to pursue regional hegemony.

But a series of incidents in recent weeks testify to the failure in reaching those goals, and all that we've warned about is now taking place. The clock is turning back: Abbas is growing weaker, Iranian influence is spreading, there are signs of a renewed conflagration in Gaza, East Jerusalem is in ferment and there are fears that Israel's ties to regional allies will come undone.

In the last nine months, Abbas has succeeded in advancing government reforms. He built up his security forces and even emerged stronger from the sixth Fatah conference in Bethlehem. But all this bolstered his authority within Fatah and the Palestine Liberation Organization alone - only in the West Bank, where the Israel Defense Forces operates. In Fatah's struggle with Hamas, with the help of Egyptian mediation and in the absence of diplomatic achievements, Abbas is refraining from committing his signature to a reconciliation deal that does not allow him at least a partial presence in Gaza and grant him public legitimacy to represent the Palestinians in negotiations.
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Abbas, with his hands tied by Palestinian public opinion and American and European demands for a total freeze on settlement construction, was forced to appear at the fruitless tripartite summit in New York, which Hamas exploited to call his legitimacy into question. That legitimacy was further undermined in the wake of the Goldstone report. The PA's refraining from submitting the report to the United Nations Human Rights Council was perceived by the Palestinian public as a surrender to Israeli pressure (right when Israel refused to allocate the PA frequencies for a second cellular phone network) and to pressure from the Americans (who demanded compensation for dragging Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the negotiating table).

The failure of American efforts to get the wheels of the peace process moving, to freeze settlement construction and free Palestinian prisoners in exchange for Gilad Shalit - as well as the Egyptian declaration that the Rafah Crossing would open fully only after a reconciliation agreement - have completed the reversal in the positions of Hamas and Fatah. The former, which sought a reconciliation deal to achieve legitimacy and the opening of the Gaza crossings, is now asking Egypt to postpone publicly blessing such a deal until change occurs "in the atmosphere against Abu Mazen [Abbas]." In essence, its intention is to phrase the agreement in such a way as to annul Abbas' diplomatic freedom on the pretext that he has lost the trust of the Palestinian people. Fatah is now forced to move quickly and accept reconciliation before the agreement changes, simply to survive politically, both within the PLO and in its struggle with Hamas to represent the Palestinians.

The American attempt to dissuade the Egyptians from pushing a reconciliation agreement (claiming it would hurt the peace process) seems cynical in light of the clearer picture emerging of the Netanyahu government's policies vis-a-vis the Palestinians. It's fitting that the Americans would rush to present both sides with an agreement that could serve as a bridge to further negotiations, to prevent the continued deterioration in Abbas' status before he is forced to swallow the remainder of Hamas' demands.

An Israeli response to the reconciliation proposal could also aid in getting the strategic relationship between Israel and Turkey back on track, before that relationship crumbles in the face of the strengthening ties between Ankara and Damascus.
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