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Last update - 16:39 17/10/2009
ANALYSIS / Turkey has the most to lose from boycotting Israel
By Amir Oren
Tags: Israel News, Turkey

The friction between Israel and Turkey did not begin with the cancellation of the "Anatolian Eagle" exercise this week, as Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan gave Israel a slap in the face and took a louder American slap in return. (And that was before it was reported that NATO commander Admiral James Stavridis had accused Turkey of perpetrating "ethnic cleansing" and a "pogrom" against the Greek minority that lived in Izmir in the 1920s, which included his family.)

In February, after Operation Cast Lead in Gaza, Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi sent his Turkish counterpart, Mehmet Ilker Basbug, a message by phone and in writing. The message: Maj. Gen. Avi Mizrahi, then-commander of IDF army headquarters, had been speaking only for himself when he lambasted Erdogan for his allegations about civilian casualties during the operation. Turkish law permits and encourages cross-border raids against the Kurdish PKK underground, Mizrahi had noted; why should Israel not respond by condemning Hamas as a Palestinian version of the PKK in Gaza.

Mizrahi reminded the Turks about the remote past - the massacre of the Armenians - and about the present, the occupation in Cyprus, among other Turkish sins. He did not ask for reparations for the Ottoman expulsion of Tel Aviv and Jaffa residents in World War I.
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Basbug filed away Ashkenazi's explanations.

Ten years have passed since IDF soldiers were welcomed as saviors in Turkey, in the wake of the severe earthquake in the summer of 1999. Fifty years have passed since the chief of operations from the Israeli General Staff, col. Avraham Tamir, held secret talks with the Turkish General Staff under the command of General Cemal Gursel.

After the Baghdad Pact (founded in 1955 by Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, Turkey and the United Kingdom) turned in 1958 into the Central Treaty Organization, the Asian equivalent of NATO, which the Americans then sought to use to contain Soviet expansionism, Israel tried to organize a non-Arab axis in the Middle East and its environs: Iran, Turkey and Ethiopia. The perceived adversaries were the Soviets and Egypt, and plans were hatched against Syria and Iraq. Within less than a year, Gursel's generals ousted the prime minister, Adnan Menderes, and hanged him.

A fragile balance of terror has emerged in Turkey's efforts to gain acceptance into the European Union, which advocates democracy and human rights but is also deterred by the expected weight of a large Muslim state led by Erdogan's Islamist party. Erdogan has increased civilian authority over the military, in part through legislation that extends the authority of the civil courts over the officer corps. Meanwhile, the generals are protesting the country's growing Islamization, which conflicts with the secularity enshrined by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the state's founder, though they have not yet reached the stage of a military coup.

But it is not Erdogan who appoints the chief of staff. The Supreme Military Council chooses him from within its ranks, like cardinals who gather to anoint one of themselves pope. Unlike the pope, the Turkish chief of staff is not appointed for life. Basbug, 66, is due to retire next year.

Last year, as commander of Turkish army headquarters, Basbug visited Israel. The Turkish press raked him over the coals in the wake of photographs showing him on a visit to the Western Wall in civilian garb and wearing a skullcap. A jocular ultra-Orthodox Jew next to Basbug made it possible for one of the photos to be turned into an anti-Semitic caricature.

No need for America

During the Cold War, Israel and Turkey had close ties. Both identified clearly with the American camp. In recent years, the relationship has hit bumps, due to the West's too-sweeping victory over the Soviets. Turkey no longer needs American protection. This is also true for Europe. As a result, the nations of Europe are ignoring Washington's wishes, and are distancing themselves from Israel.

Erdogan, who took office a week before U.S. president George W. Bush invaded Iraq, interfered with Bush's war on Saddam Hussein no less than he is turning away from Israel, despite the tight strategic ties between the security establishment in Ankara and its counterpart in Tel Aviv.

Israel likes selling weapons to Turkey, both because it profits from the exports and because this reduces the cost of similar systems that the IDF buys, but Erdogan's rapprochement with Syria and Iran is eroding Turkey's strategic importance for Israel. If the Turkish border and airspace near Iran are closed to Israel, there are substitutes, such as in Central Asia. Like Charles de Gaulle, who cooled the relations his predecessors and his army had formed with Israel in the 1960s, in conjunction with his efforts to end the war in Algeria, Erdogan is aiming for a large-scale reconciliation with old enemies: the Armenians, the Syrians, the Greek Cypriots and the Kurds. Israel is a burden for him, not an asset.

De Gaulle's embargo on Israel pushed the latter into closer relations with the United States. In the U.S.-Turkey-Israel triangle, the Turkish army will suffer from the cancellation of exercises like Anatolian Eagle, an annual event that began in the summer of 2001. At that time the Israel Air Force (IAF) journal reported extensively about two weeks of joint training exercises that included Israeli F-16 warplanes, Black Hawk helicopters, Hercules and Boeing transport planes, teams from the 669 rescue unit and an antiaircraft battery.

This whetted the Turks' appetite, and after that the exercise was held three times a year, twice for independent training by the Turks, and once with American, British, German, Dutch, Italian, Bulgarian, Romanian and Israeli forces. It's important for the IAF to train in foreign mountainous regionS against both Western planes as well as the MiG-29 and the Sukhoi-27. It's also far cheaper to fly to Konya air base in Antalya than to Nellis Air Force Base outside Las Vegas. Nevertheless, the Turks will be the party most hurt by a sustained boycott of Israel.

In another few weeks, Basbug will meet with Ashkenazi, if the Israeli chief of staff finds the time to attend a periodic gathering of NATO army commanders, an unmatched networking event. In complete contrast to the political and media condemnations of Israel, since Operation Cast Lead, the IDF has enjoyed renewed esteem in the military milieu, which is as exaggerated as the criticism over its performance in Lebanon in 2006. Thanks to the utter disappointment three years ago, the IDF's performance in Gaza last December and January is being perceived as a work of rehabilitation, training, planning and implementation. Accordingly, the praise from abroad is aimed at Ashkenazi.

Far from the public eye, even before Ashkenazi took the top post, the IDF has cultivated excellent foreign relations. The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in the Pentagon, Admiral Michael Mullen, is a close personal friend of Ashkenazi. Mullen's stance on Iran will have considerable influence on U.S. President Barack Obama's decisions. The Anatolian Eagle episode showed the importance of the direct relations between the armies of nations. The Israeli anger at Turkey passed from the General Staff to the Pentagon and from there to the State Department and the White House, which supported the proposal to cancel the exercise as punishment for Turkey's boycott of Israel.

An Israeli chief of staff is different from his colleagues abroad, such as Mullen or the chairman of the NATO Military Committee, Admiral Giampaolo Di Paola, who is due to visit Israel soon. In the IDF, a chief of staff is not only the link between the political and military echelons, but also a professional authority in the most practical of security matters.

This week, when Ashkenazi visited the Gaza Division, taking in the Northern Brigade and the Nahal Brigade battalion of Lieut. Col. Uzi Klieger, it was apparent that the soldiers, the company commanders and more senior officers do not consider him a visitor from another planet. He spoke to them in a direct, down-to-earth style, and they, including lieutenants and sergeants, were not ashamed to press him with their questions and comments.

Ashkenazi had a consistent message in his conversations with colonels and corporals: The IDF operates in the service of the country's citizens, not vice versa. If communities along the border fence with Gaza that are now breathing easily, and even growing, developing want units to leave buildings to make way for new residents, the army must comply. As long as Hamas restrains its rocket fire and terrorism, even if it does not always succeed in silencing wayward groups, the IDF must remain vigilant and professional. It must not dictate a militant stance to the government, as this will make an escalation a self-fulfilling prophecy. In 20 minutes, the Israeli chief of staff can fly to Sde Dov airfield in Tel Aviv from the Philadelphi route on the Sinai border, which was the boundary between the Turkish Empire and the British Empire until 1917. Another four hours, and he is defending the IDF and lecturing in Paris, in the office of the French chief of staff, whose office is furnished with one of Napoleon' desks. Hard work, but somebody has to do it, though to take in a Napoleonic experience it's enough to take a short walk across the 14th floor of the Kirya office tower in Tel Aviv to the defense minister's bureau.

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      1.   Russia would prefer to keep Armenia and Turkey out of the EU 17:44  |  Anonymous 17/10/09
      2.   Turkey shortly before the economic collapse 17:46  |  not your homey 17/10/09
      3.   Let`s remind them the Armenian genocide 18:40  |  Maurice 17/10/09
      4.   `ANALYSIS / Turkey has the most to lose from boycotting Israel ` 18:46  |  Colin Wright 17/10/09
      5.   Agree 18:49  |  JJ 17/10/09
      6.   Turkey saved Jews in the inquisition 19:09  |  Susan 17/10/09
      7.   The slowly sinking ship, called USA, is loosing credibility and 19:18  |  Kris Lazar 17/10/09
      8.   Sans doute, Maurice # 3 19:30  |  Axel 17/10/09
      9.   Turkey and Syria occupy Kurdish land 19:49  |  Semsem 17/10/09
      10.   Turkey has more to loose 20:32  |  erdinch 17/10/09
      11.   Free Kurdistan with access to the sea! 21:26  |  Realist 17/10/09
      12.   Has anybody found 21:52  |  Axel 17/10/09
      13.   Re to # 8 Axel 22:05  |  Michael Dar 17/10/09
      14.   To Realist 22:50  |  Fatih 17/10/09
      15.   Re to # 14 Fatih 23:56  |  Michael Dar 17/10/09
      16.   JJ can you explain this to me 02:29  |  David Israel 18/10/09
      17.   NO Susan 02:34  |  David Israel 18/10/09
      18.   Benefit to the Turkish military 02:38  |  JW 18/10/09
      19.   Axel - maybe no but 02:40  |  David Israel 18/10/09
      20.   @8 Michael Dar 02:41  |  Mark B. 18/10/09
      21.   It is ridiculous to compare the Pals and the Kurds 03:13  |  Fritz T. 18/10/09
      22.   america WON`T be a power for very long 03:36  |  VIPER 18/10/09
      23.   Genocide issue will hurt Israel more.. 03:36  |  Alex 18/10/09
      24.   Israel occupies Palestinian Land.. 03:38  |  Alex 18/10/09
      25.   This article contradicts itself! 03:57  |  Manny Goldstein 18/10/09
      26.   what?? 04:11  |  hraina 18/10/09
      27.   Turkey needs Israel like the US needs it like a hole in the head 04:34  |  memeth 18/10/09
      28.   Free Kurdistan... an afterwards? 04:34  |  Zeyno 18/10/09
      29.   #14 fatih and bombs away 04:41  |  dr gonzo 18/10/09
      30.   The Cossacks and the Shetle. 04:59  |  Mark Lincoln 18/10/09
      31.   Turkey /Israel relations 05:22  |  an armenian 18/10/09
      32.   Turkey Has the Most to Loose 05:24  |  al 18/10/09
      33.   Michael Dar # 13 05:34  |  Al 18/10/09
      34.   To Armenian #19 07:10  |  Victor 18/10/09
      35.   Turkey joining with Syria and Iran for fear of free Kurdistan . 07:20  |  Tito 18/10/09
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